Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale

In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends.     

The 1888 shoreline landslide and tsunami in Trondheimsfjorden,central Norway

Marine Geophysical Research - The 1888 landslide and tsunami along the shore of the bay of Trondheim, central Norway, killed one person and caused major damage to port facilities. Recent...     

Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?

A number of examples are presented to substantiate that submarine landslides have occurred along most continental margins and along several volcano flanks. Their properties of importance for tsunami generation (i.e. physical dimensions, acceleration, maximum velocity, mass discharge, and travel distance) can all gain extreme values compared to their subaerial counterparts. Hence, landslide tsunamis may also be extreme and have regional impact. Landslide tsunami characteristics are discussed explaining how they may exceed tsunamis induced by megathrust earthquakes, hence representing a significant risk even though they occur more infrequently. In fact, submarine landslides may cause potentially extreme tsunami run-up heights, which may have consequences for the design of critical infrastructure often based on unjustifiably long return periods. Giant submarine landslides are rare and related to climate changes or glacial cycles, indicating that giant submarine landslide tsunami hazard is in most regions negligible compared to earthquake tsunami hazard. Large-scale debris flows surrounding active volcanoes or submarine landslides in river deltas may be more frequent. Giant volcano flank collapses at the Canary and Hawaii Islands developed in the early stages of the history of the volcanoes, and the tsunamigenic potential of these collapses is disputed. Estimations of recurrence intervals, hazard, and uncertainties with today’s methods are discussed. It is concluded that insufficient sampling and changing conditions for landslide release are major obstacles in transporting a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) approach from earthquake to landslide tsunamis and that the more robust Scenario-Based Tsunami Hazard Assessment (SBTHA) approach will still be most efficient to use. Finally, the needs for data acquisition and analyses, laboratory experiments, and more sophisticated numerical modelling for improved understanding and hazard assessment of landslide tsunamis are elaborated.     

Impact of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami along the Tamil Nadu coastline: field survey review and numerical simulations

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had a significant impact on the Tamil Nadu coast in India. In this paper, a range of field survey data collected by different survey teams available in literature have been analyzed and compiled to serve as a basis for validation of numerical tsunami simulations. The individual field surveys reveal a significant scatter in the run-up data between the different teams, which point out that the uncertainty in these data must be taken into account when using them for validation. The inundation of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami is simulated for the coastlines of Chennai and Nagapattinam based on high-resolution topography. Different spatially uniform Manning friction as well as heterogeneous friction maps is used. Overall, the simulation results showed a good agreement with the field observations, but there are also some observed spatial variability in the goodness of the fit between the data and simulations. In some areas, clear discrepancies are found. The results obtained using detailed land use maps including spatially variable friction are not significantly more accurate than those employing spatially constant values. For most areas, parameters indicating relatively low friction provided best match with the observations. This may also suggest that the inundation is often strongly governed by local variations in topography.     

Submarine landslides and the importance of the initial sediment composition for run-out length and final deposit

Much remains to understand the dynamic processes during the flow of submarine landslides. A first relevant problem is to explain the extraordinary mobility of submarine landslides, which has no comparison in subaerial mass movement. Another challenging question is the apparent disparity between submarine landslides that remain compact for hundreds of kilometres and those that disintegrate during the flow, finally evolving into turbidity currents. This problem is linked to a central ongoing debate on the relative importance of turbidity currents versus submarine landslides in reshaping the continental margin. Based on three epitomic case studies and on laboratory experiments with artificial debris flows of various composition, we suggest a possible explanation for the disparity between compact and disintegrating landslides, identifying the clay-to-sand ratio as the key control parameter.     

Risk assessment of a tsunamigenic rockslide at Åknes

This paper introduces the application of a simple and practical method for estimating the risk associated with a potential tsunamigenic rockslide, by assessing quantitatively hazard, vulnerability, and elements at risk. The proposed method introduces empirical relations between the risk components and illustrates the uncertainty propagation through the steps in the risk analysis. A case study is presented, showing the applicability of the method for estimating the risk associated with the tsunamigenic Åknes rockslope in Stranda municipality in western Norway. Results show, preliminary risk estimates that will be of significant value for future policy and decision making.