A direct comparison of C and Th ages at Searles Lake, California

Thorium-230 dating on saline of the Lower Salt unit in pluvial Searles Lake, California, shows that this unit was formed between 24,500 and 32,000 years ago. The initial apparent ¹⁴C age of the lake is estimated to be about 900 years. After correcting for nonradiogenic ²³⁰Th and for the initial ¹⁴C age, excellent agreement between ²³⁰Th and ¹⁴C ages is obtained. The reliability of ²³⁰Th dating on salt deposit opens a new way for continuation of absolute chronology below the Lower Salt in Searles Lake.     

The “Boscobel Landslip” of October 1st, 1901—the largest historic landslide in Barbados,West Indies

Barbados is a small Caribbean island located on the crest of an accretionary prism about 125 km east of the Lesser Antilles volcanic island arc. The oldest strata, Eocene sandstones and shales, are overlain by Oligocene–Miocene chalks and marls, in turn overlain by Pleistocene reef and lagoonal limestones that cover about 85 % of the island. The Eocene sediments, which crop out in the Scotland District of Barbados, are prone to soil creep and landslides covering tens to hundreds of hectares. The largest historic landslide, the “Boscobel Landslip,” occurred on 01 October 1901. We used nineteenth-century and more modern topographic and geologic maps, air photographs, and various archival and petrophysical data, to supplement reconnaissance of the landslide in the field. We identified about ten million cubic meters of the displaced material of the landslide, as well as the meteorological and geological conditions that contributed to the Boscobel Landslip. Similar landslides would pose a presently unquantified hazard to inhabitation and future development in the Scotland District.     

Equilibrium H/H fractionations in organic molecules: I. Experimental calibration of ab initio calculations

Carbon-bound hydrogen in sedimentary organic matter can undergo exchange over geologic timescales, altering its isotopic composition. Studies investigating the natural abundance distribution of ¹H and ²H in such molecules must account for this exchange, which in turn requires quantitative knowledge regarding the endpoint of exchange, i.e., the equilibrium isotopic fractionation factor (α_eq). To date, relevant data have been lacking for molecules larger than methane. Here we describe an experimental method to measure α_eq for C-bound H positions adjacent to carbonyl group (H_α) in ketones. H at these positions equilibrates on a timescale of days as a result of keto-enol tautomerism, allowing equilibrium ²H/¹H distributions to be indirectly measured. Molecular vibrations for the same ketone molecules are then computed using Density Functional Theory at the B3LYP/6-311G** level and used to calculate α_eq values for H_α. Comparison of experimental and computational results for six different straight and branched ketones yields a temperature-dependent linear calibration curve with slope = 1.081−0.00376T and intercept = 8.404−0.387T, where T is temperature in degrees Celsius. Since the dominant systematic error in the calculation (omission of anharmonicity) is of the same size for ketones and C-bound H in most other linear compounds, we propose that this calibration can be applied to analogous calculations for a wide variety of organic molecules with linear carbon skeletons for temperatures below 100 °C. In a companion paper (Wang et al., 2009) we use this new calibration dataset to calculate the temperature-dependent equilibrium isotopic fractionation factors for a range of linear hydrocarbons, alcohols, ethers, ketones, esters and acids.     

Conserving Biodiversity in Farm Animals: Do Farmer and Public Biodiversity Knowledge and Awareness Matter?

Increases in biodiversity losses are a growing concern globally. In farm animals, related concerns about losses in genetic diversity have potentially increased with the emergence of breeding technologies that allow for faster genetic change in herds. Farmer and public acceptance of specific breeding practices can be influenced by a number of factors, including concerns about biodiversity and knowledge of biodiversity. The link between these factors and acceptance of new genetic technologies, if it exists, may help explain concerns about genetic technologies. This article examines the effect of attitudes and knowledge about biodiversity on the acceptance of genomic selection in livestock production using farmer and public survey data from Canada. Our results suggest that the link between biodiversity concerns and the acceptance of genomic selection is more robust for the public than for farmers. We also find that biodiversity knowledge and attitudes have opposite effects on acceptance of genomic selection.     

IAP GCM模式大气背景环流在厄尔尼诺年的异常

本文分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环流模式(IAP GCM)模式大气5～9月平均环流(本文称为背景环流)。结果表明;厄尔尼诺年一系列重要系统(南方涛动、瓦克环流、哈德莱环流、西太平洋副热带高压和热带辐合带)及大范围降水均发生明显异常;北半球西太平洋热带、副热带是环流异常的主要区域。它们与观测资料的分析结果基本一致,从而论证了该模式在低纬环流研究中的应用前景。     

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

IAP GCM模式大气波谱结构及其在厄尔尼诺年的异常

本文分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环流模式(IAP GCM)模式大气波谱结构(沿纬圈的谐波波谱和时域上的频率谱)及其在厄尔尼诺年的异常。结果表明,超长波是低纬波动的主要空间形式,准40天振荡在一定地理区域内显著存在,并与观测结果有一定联系,它们在厄尔尼诺年均发生明显异常。本工作对鉴定GCM性能及开发GCM的研究领域可能是一种有益的尝试。     

A direct comparison of 14C and 230Th ages at Searles Lake,California

Thorium-230 dating on saline of the Lower Salt unit in pluvial Searles Lake, California, shows that this unit was formed between 24,500 and 32,000 years ago. The initial apparent ¹⁴C age of the lake is estimated to be about 900 years. After correcting for nonradiogenic ²³⁰Th and for the initial ¹⁴C age, excellent agreement between ²³⁰Th and ¹⁴C ages is obtained. The reliability of ²³⁰Th dating on salt deposit opens a new way for continuation of absolute chronology below the Lower Salt in Searles Lake.