Modeling of the Guagua Pichincha volcano (Ecuador) lahars

Lahars, here defined as debris flows of volcanic origin, are rapid mass movements that pose a serious threat to cities located in the vicinity of many volcanoes. Quito, capital city of Ecuador and placed at the foot of the Pichincha volcano complex, is exposed to serious inundation hazard as part of the city is built on numerous deposits of large lahars that have occurred in the last 10,000 years.The objective of this paper is to model the potential lahars of the Pichincha volcano to predict inundation areas within the city of Quito. For this purpose two models that apply different approaches were utilized and their results were compared.The programs used were LAHARZ, a semi-empirical model conceived by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and FLO-2D, a hydraulic model distributed by FLO Software Inc. LAHARZ is designed as a rapid, objective and reproducible automated method for mapping areas of potential lahar inundation (Proc. First Int. Conf. on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, San Francisco, USA, ASCE, 1998, p. 176). FLO-2D is a two-dimensional flood routing model for simulating overland flow on complex surfaces such as floodplains, alluvial fans or urbanized areas (FLO-2D Users manual, version 99.2). Both models run within geographical information systems (GIS).Fieldwork was focused on collecting all available information involved in lahar modeling. A total of 49 channel cross-sections were measured along the two main streams and stratigraphic investigations were carried out on the fans to estimate the volume of previous events. A global positioning system was utilized to determine the coordinates of each cross-section. Further data collection concerned topography, rainfall characteristics and ashfall thicknesses. All fieldwork was carried out in cooperation with the Instituto Geofisico of the Escuela Politecnica Nacional.Modeling in a GIS environment greatly aided the exportation of results for the creation of thematic maps and facilitated model comparison. Evaluation of the models was performed by comparing simulation results against each other and against the geometry of existing lahar deposits.     

Centrifuge modelling of the influence of crustal fabrics on the development of transfer zones: insights into the mechanics of continental rifting architecture

Centrifuge analogue experiments are used to model the reactivation of pre-existing crustal fabrics during extension. The models reproduced a weakness zone in the lower crust whose geometry was varied in order to investigate its role in controlling the architecture of rift segments and related transfer zones. The typical rift system geometry was characterised by two offset rift segments connected by a major transfer zone in which boundary faults were oblique to the extension vector and displayed a significant transcurrent component of movement. The transfer zone was also characterised by cross-basin faults with both trend and strike-slip component of movement opposite to that displayed by the master faults. Typically, different structural patterns were obtained by changing the offset angle φ between the rift segments, supporting that the structural pattern at transfer zones is strongly influenced by the orientation of pre-existing discontinuities with respect to the stretching vector. In the models, the aspect ratio (ratio of length vs. width) of the transfer zone shows a positive correlation with the offset angle (i.e., the more the inherited fabric is parallel to the extension direction, the longer and narrower the transfer zones). In case of staircase offset of the rift segments (φ=90°), the structural pattern was characterised by two isolated rift depressions linked by a narrow transfer zone in which border faults with alternating polarity overlapped. Prominent rise of the ductile lower crust was also observed at the transfer zone. Many of these geometrical features display striking similarities with natural rift systems. The results of the current experiments provide useful insights into the mechanics of continental rift architecture, supporting that rift propagation, width and along-axis segmentation may be strongly controlled by the reactivation of pre-existing pervasive crustal fabrics.     

The palaeoenvironmental and palaeohydrological evolution of Padul Peat Bog (Granada, Spain) over one million years, from elemental, isotopic and molecular organic geochemical proxies

The elemental (concentration of organic carbon, atomic H/C and C/N ratios), isotopic (δ¹³C values of organic matter) and molecular (predominant n-alkane chain length and carbon preference index (CPI)) organic components were measured for 600 samples taken from a 107-m long core from the Padul Basin (Andalusia, Spain). The record runs from the Lower Pleistocene (ca. 1 Ma B.P.) to the mid-Holocene (ca. 4.5 ka B.P.) with, in general, little diagenesis (removal of components). Two markedly different hydrogeological scenarios were interpreted: (1) From ca. 1 Ma to ca. 400 ka B.P. run-off recharge was significant and water depths were greater (lacustrine scenario). From ca. 400 to 4.5 ka B.P., the Padul Basin became a peat bog s.s. with the major water input coming from groundwater inflow. From ca. 400 to ca. 180 ka B.P. alternating episodes with either predominant grasses, trees or aquatic macrophytes which were linked to wet/dry phases, took place. An important deglaciation episode has been interpreted to occur between ca. 180 and 170 ka B.P. The global climatic changes occurring from ca. 170 to 25 ka B.P. were not recorded in the proxies, though they do show important variations linked to the Last Glacial Maximum and the beginning of the Holocene (ca. 25–10 ka B.P.): (2) Cold phases coexisting with dry periods produced the recession of forests and the development of grasses. After these periods, as both temperature and precipitation increased, forests expanded and the water level, linked to thaw, rose, especially at ca. 20 ka B.P. Few changes occurred during the Holocene, although there were short alternations between wet and dry episodes. Overall, the techniques applied proved to be excellent palaeoenvironmental proxies for studying the basin’s palaeoclimatological and palaeohydrological evolution.     

Hydrothermal bitumen generated from sedimentary organic matter of rift lakes – Lake Chapala, Citala Rift, western Mexico

Lake Chapala is in the Citala Rift of western Mexico, which in association with the Tepic-Zacoalco and Colima Rifts, form the well-known neotectonic Jalisco continental triple junction. The rifts are characterized by evidence for both paleo- and active hydrothermal activity. At the south shore of the lake, near the Los Gorgos sublacustrine hydrothermal field, there are two tar emanations that appear as small islands composed of solid, viscous and black bitumen. Aliquots of tar were analyzed by GC-MS and the mixtures are comprised of geologically mature biomarkers and an UCM. PAH and n-alkanes are not detectable. The biomarkers consist mainly of hopanes, gammacerane, tricyclic terpanes, carotane and its cracking products, steranes, and drimanes. The biomarker composition and bulk C isotope composition (δ¹³C = −21.4%) indicate an organic matter source from bacteria and algae, typical of lacustrine ecosystems. The overall composition of these tars indicates that they are hydrothermal petroleum formed from lacustrine organic matter in the deeper sediments of Lake Chapala exceeding 40 ka (¹⁴C) in age and then forced to the lakebed by tectonic activity. The absence of alkanes and the presence of an UCM with mature biomarkers are consistent with rapid hydrothermal oil generation and expulsion at temperatures of 200–250 °C. The occurrence of hydrothermal petroleum in continental rift systems is now well known and should be considered in future energy resource exploration in such regions.     

Snow model sensitivity analysis to understand spatial and temporal snow dynamics in a high‐elevation catchment

In this paper, we addressed a sensitivity analysis of the snow module of the GEOtop2.0 model at point and catchment scale in a small high‐elevation catchment in the Eastern Italian Alps (catchment size: 61 km²). Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent at the point scale were compared with measured data at four locations from 2009 to 2013. At the catchment scale, simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) was compared with binary snow cover maps derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite imagery. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of different model parameterizations on model performance at both scales and the effect of different thresholds of simulated snow depth on the agreement with MODIS data. Our results at point scale indicated that modifying only the “snow correction factor” resulted in substantial improvements of the snow model and effectively compensated inaccurate winter precipitation by enhancing snow accumulation. SCA inaccuracies at catchment scale during accumulation and melt period were affected little by different snow depth thresholds when using calibrated winter precipitation from point scale. However, inaccuracies were strongly controlled by topographic characteristics and model parameterizations driving snow albedo (“snow ageing coefficient” and “extinction of snow albedo”) during accumulation and melt period. Although highest accuracies (overall accuracy = 1 in 86% of the catchment area) were observed during winter, lower accuracies (overall accuracy < 0.7) occurred during the early accumulation and melt period (in 29% and 23%, respectively), mostly present in areas with grassland and forest, slopes of 20–40°, areas exposed NW or areas with a topographic roughness index of ?0.25 to 0 m. These findings may give recommendations for defining more effective model parameterization strategies and guide future work, in which simulated and MODIS SCA may be combined to generate improved products for SCA monitoring in Alpine catchments.     

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

Backward automatic calibration for three-dimensional landslide models

Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.     

Habitat continuity effects on gradients of fish biomass across marine protected area boundaries

Marine protected areas (MPAs) could be useful as fisheries management tools for the exportation of pelagic eggs, larvae and adult fish. A decreasing gradient of fish biomass across MPAs boundary may indicate export. We determine whether gradients of decreasing biomass of fish assemblage occurred in Tabarca Marine Reserve over two habitats with different continuity across the boundaries, to test if the patchy nature of the marine environment might act as a barrier for the fish export. In general, significant decreasing gradients in total fish biomass and biomass of some species were observed on P. oceanica and rocky substrates, independently of their different continuity through the reserve boundaries. Changes in the multivariate structure of the fish assemblage were correlated with the distance from integral reserve. All of these results support the hypothesis that the exportation of adult fish from Tabarca Marine Reserve occurs, and this process may influence the surrounding fished areas.     

Dimethylsulfide production in Sargasso Sea eddies

Lagrangian time series of dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentrations from a cyclonic and an anticyclonic eddy in the Sargasso Sea were used in conjunction with measured DMS loss rates and a model of vertical mixing to estimate gross DMS production in the upper 60 m during summer 2004. Loss terms included biological consumption, photolysis, and ventilation to the atmosphere. The time- and depth (0–60 m)-averaged gross DMS production was estimated to be 0.73±0.09 nM d⁻¹ in the cyclonic eddy and 0.90±0.15 nM d⁻¹ in the anticyclonic eddy, with respective DMS replacement times of 5±1 and 6±1 d. The higher estimated rate of gross production and lower measured loss rate constants in the anticyclonic eddy were equally responsible for this eddy's 50% higher DMS inventory (0–60 m). When normalized to chlorophyll and total dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP), estimated gross production in the anticyclonic eddy was about twice that in the cyclonic eddy, consistent with the greater fraction of phytoplankton that were DMSP producers in the anticyclonic eddy. Higher rates of gross production were estimated below the mixed layer, contributing to the subsurface DMS maximum found in both eddies. In both eddies, gas exchange, microbial consumption, and photolysis were roughly equal DMS loss terms in the surface mixed layer (0.2–0.4 nM d⁻¹). Vertical mixing was a substantial source of DMS to the surface mixed layer in both eddies (0.2–0.3 nM d⁻¹) owing to the relatively high DMS concentrations below the mixed layer. Estimated net biological DMS production rates (gross production minus microbial consumption) in the mixed layer were substantially lower (by almost a factor of 3) than those estimated in a previous study of the Sargasso Sea, which may explain the relatively low mixed-layer DMS concentrations found here during July 2004 (3 nM) compared to previous summers (4–6 nM).