The experience of using the determined-probabilistic learning information system (DPLIS) for solar activity forecasting

The DPLIS and the results of the solar activity cycle No. 20 forecast with the help of it are described briefly.     

On the onset of the instability of a three-dimensional jet in a stratified fluid

The onset of a three-dimensional jet flow in a stratified fluid is studied with the aid of a direct numerical simulation. An initially cylindrical jet with a Gaussian velocity profile is considered in a fluid with stable linear density stratification. The results indicate that, if an initial small perturbation of the velocity field has a wide spectrum, an exponential growth of the isolated quasi-two-dimensional mode occurs and its spectral maximum is shifted toward smaller wave numbers in comparison with the maximum of the helical mode of the instability of a nonstratified jet. The growth rate is proportional to Ri^0.5, where Ri is the global Richardson number. The onset of the instability leads to the formation of the flow’s vortex structure, which consists of a collection of different-polarity quasi-two-dimensional vortices located in a horizontal plane near the longitudinal axis of the jet. At sufficiently long times (Nt > 100, where N is the buoyancy frequency and t is time), the growth of instability reaches the saturation stage and further fluctuations in velocity and density decay under the effect of viscous diffusion. At this stage, the flow becomes self-similar and the time dependences of the transverse and vertical widths of the jet are consistent with the asymptotic behaviors of integral parameters of the flow that are observed experimentally in the far stratified wake. The results suggest that the onset of the instability of a quasitwo-dimensional mode can play the determining role in the dynamics of flow in the far stratified wake.     

On the Dynamics of a Drift Flow Under Low Wind

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The dynamics of a drift flow in the near-surface water layer driven by a turbulent air wind is investigated by direct numerical simulation (DNS)....     

Direct numerical simulation of a turbulent stably stratified air flow above a wavy water surface

The influence of the roughness of the underlaying water surface on turbulence is studied in a stably stratified boundary layer (SSBL). Direct numerical simulation (DNS) is conducted at various Reynolds (Re) and Richardson (Ri) numbers and the wave steepness ka. It is shown that, at constant Re, the stationary turbulent regime is set in at Ri below the threshold value Ri_c depending on Re. At Ri > Ri_c, in the absence of turbulent fluctuations near the wave water surface, three-dimensional quasiperiodical structures are identified and their threshold of origin depends on the steepness of the surface wave on the water surface. This regime is called a wave pumping regime. The formation of three-dimensional structures is explained by the development of parametric instability of the disturbances induced by the surface water in the air flow. The DNS results are quite consistent with prediction of the theoretical model of the SSBL flow, in which solutions for the disturbances of the fields of velocity and temperature in the wave pumping regime are found to be a solution of a two-dimensional linearized system with the heterogeneous boundary condition, which is caused by the presence of the surface wave. In addition to the turbulent fluctuations, the three-dimensional structures in the wave pumping regime provide for the transfer of impulse and heat, i.e., the increase in the roughness of the water–air boundary caused by the presence of waves intensifies the exchange in the SSBL.     

On the Transfer of Microbubbles by Surface Waves

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Direct numerical simulation (DNS) is performed and the dynamics of a near-surface water layer populated by air bubbles in the presence of a stationary...     

Decoupled elastic prestack depth migration

This paper presents a new decoupled form of the formula for common-shot or common-receiver amplitude-preserving elastic prestack depth migration (PreSDM), which can be used for estimating angle-dependent elastic reflection coefficients in laterally inhomogeneous anisotropic media. The multi-shot or multi-receiver extension of this formula is suitable for automated prestack amplitude-versus-angle (AVA) elastic inversion of ocean-bottom cable (OBC), walkaway VSP (WVSP) or standard towed-cable data at any subsurface location. The essence of the theory is a systematic application of the stationary-phase principle and high-frequency approximations to the basic elastic Green's theorem. This leads to nonheuristic explicit wave mode decoupling and scalarization of vector PreSDM. Used in combination, ray-trace and finite-difference (FD) eikonal solvers create a useful tool to calculate accurate Green's function travel time and amplitude maps. Examples of synthetic OBC data and applications to field WVSP data show that the new imaging technique can produce a clear multi-mode elastic image.     

Ray–Kirchhoff multicomponent borehole seismic modelling in 3D heterogeneous, anisotropic media

Kirchhoff–Helmholtz (KH) theory is extended to synthesize two-way elastic wave propagation in 3D laterally heterogeneous, anisotropic media. I have developed and tested numerically a specialized algorithm for the generation of three-component synthetic seismograms in multi-layered isotropic and transversely isotropic (TI) media with dipping interfaces and tilted axes of symmetry. This algorithm can be applied to vertical seismic profile (VSP) geometries and works well when the receiver is located near the reflector interface. It is superior to ray methods in predicting elliptical polarization effects observed on radial and transverse components. The algorithm is used to study converted-wave propagation for determining fracture-related shear-wave anisotropy in realistic reservoir models. Results show that all wavefront attributes are strongly affected by the anisotropy. However, it is necessary to resolve a trade-off between the effects of fractures and formation dip prior to converted-wave interpretation. These results provide some assurance that the present scheme is sufficiently versatile to handle shear wave behaviour due to various generalized rays propagating in complex geological models.     

Anti-aliased Kirchhoff–Helmholtz transformations

Non-aliased integral (Kirchhoff-type) transformations for forward and downward wavefield extrapolations in inhomogeneous media with interfaces are described. Special weights are computed to compensate for operator aliasing and finite-aperture effects, even when the data are spatially aliased and irregularly sampled. Basic components of the algorithm, such as Green's function computation, can be replaced by alternative solutions in conjunction with ray-tracing methods. Applications of this algorithm to model and real data in both two and three dimensions are discussed in terms of its impact on seismic modelling, multiple prediction and prestack imaging.