Constructing the Optimal Model of the Geoelectric Section Using Vertical Electrical Sounding Data: Case Study of the Central Part of the Garm Research Area

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - In geophysical studies, particularly when searching for precursors of earthquakes, there are problems of investigating the geoelectric structure of the...     

Does lunisolar gravitational tide affect the activity of animals?

Multiyear time series obtained by the continuous instrumental monitoring of the electrical activity (EA) of weakly electric fish Gnathonemus leopoldianus and the motor activity (MA) of the freshwater catfish Hoplosternum thoracatum and the cockroach Blaberus craniifer are compared to the parameters of the lunisolar gravitational tide. These curves are observed to be very similar for a large number of time intervals. However, a more detailed analysis shows this to be only a superficial resemblance caused by the closeness of the periods of diurnal and semidiurnal rhythms of bioindicator activity (the dominant rhythms in EA and MA patterns) and the periods of main gravitational tidal waves. It is concluded that the lunisolar gravitational tide has no significant effect on animal behavior in our experiment.     

An Algorithm for Adaptive Assessment in Time Series Seasonal Oscillations and Its Testing Based on the Example of Variations in the CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - An adaptive model is proposed to describe time-varying seasonal effects. The seasonal average function is constructed using an iterative algorithm that...     

Diurnal periodicity of the representative earthquakes in Greece

The diurnal periodicity of seismic events of different energy from the Greece earthquake catalog was studied. Earthquake samplings of different energy with a known level of magnitude of completeness were compiled. Parameters of the diurnal periodicity of earthquakes in different time and magnitude intervals were analyzed. Significant diurnal periodicity of earthquakes with M ≤ 4.1 was revealed. The most important result of the paper is the discovery of the diurnal periodicity of the representative earthquakes with M = 3.2–4.1. The diurnal periodicity of representative earthquakes cannot be explained at the base of the prevailing hypothesis considering the diurnal periodicity of earthquakes as an apparent phenomenon resulting from diurnal changes in the real sensitivity of the seismic network due to diurnal variations of seismic noise.     

The music of the spheres and the prosaicness of statistical criteria: A response to B.L. Berry’s paper “Heliogeophysical and other natural processes,periods of their oscillations,and forecasts”

According to B.L. Berry’s “harmonic model,” any natural or social process is a superposition of several cosmic rhythms. The author assumes that stability of these rhythms allows prediction of earth phenomena over an unlimited time. We show that the statistical criteria supposedly substantiating the harmonic model were applied incorrectly. The initial data for the analysis were biased and selected incompetently; the adequacy of the methods used was not verified. Predictions of natural catastrophes (earthquakes, weather anomalies, etc.) and various social events according to Berry’s model are unsatisfactory. Statistics do not confirm that these predictions are at least slightly better than random guessing. Berry’s model is unacceptable; it is untenable both in detail and in general.     

On the benefits of normalization

We discuss the methodology to use in searching for statistical relationships between catastrophic events such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions on the one hand and astronomical or geographic data on the other. It is pointed out that data should necessarily be normalized before doing statistical probabilistic analyses. Examples of studies are provided whose authors arrive at certainly false inferences owing to the absence of a correct normalization.     

Analysis of the Results of Deformation Monitoring by the Inclinometer System at the Vladimir Filanovsky Field

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The system of geodynamic monitoring at the Vladimir Filanovsky oil and gas condensate field is presented. The technologies for data transfer to the...     

Changes in representativity of the earthquake catalogue for Greece in time and space

The representativity of the earthquake catalogue for Greece for the period of 1964?C2010 was studied. The studies were aimed at finding the homogeneous event groups and obtaining the homogeneous earthquake time series. Representative magnitude values were estimated in various parts of the region in different time intervals. The investigated catalogue was revealed to be characterized by significant space and time heterogeneity that should be taken into account when making studies of seismicity regularities. A wrong earthquake representativity threshold can crucially distort the estimations of seismicity parameters. Underestimation of the representativity threshold by 0.3?C0.5 units of magnitude relative to a real value can result in understatement of most earthquakes included in a selected group.     

The influence of hydrometeorological factors on the results of geophysical monitoring conducted at the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii Geodynamic Test Site

A local model has been developed for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii Geodynamic Test Site; the model is concerned with the transformation of atmospheric precipitation in the snow cover and in the active soil layer. The input parameters of the model are standard hydrometeorological observations, the output consists in the variation of moisture content in the soil and evaporation from it. Data from water level monitoring carried out at the Site for the purpose of earthquake prediction were used to show how the output parameters can be utilized to reveal the water level variations in a well due to the moisture content variation in the upper crust. The procedure makes the data interpretation more correct.     

Phase distinctions of seasonal variations in the soil moisture influx at stations of the Garm research area

Local models of soil water input are constructed on the basis of water balance calculation for the active layer at four observation points of the Garm research area located at different hypsometric heights. Phase differences in model time series describing the processes of precipitation infiltration into soil at different stations are analyzed. The paper discusses the possibilities of using the obtained results for reinterpretation of the long-term data accumulated during joint monitoring of various geophysical parameters in the Garm research area that was conducted in the framework of earthquake prediction research.