Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model

Data assimilation is a sophisticated mathematical technique for combining observational data with model predictions to produce state and parameter estimates that most accurately approximate the current and future states of the true system. The technique is commonly used in atmospheric and oceanic modelling, combining empirical observations with model predictions to produce more accurate and well-calibrated forecasts. Here, we consider a novel application within a coastal environment and describe how the method can also be used to deliver improved estimates of uncertain morphodynamic model parameters. This is achieved using a technique known as state augmentation. Earlier applications of state augmentation have typically employed the 4D-Var, Kalman filter or ensemble Kalman filter assimilation schemes. Our new method is based on a computationally inexpensive 3D-Var scheme, where the specification of the error covariance matrices is crucial for success. A simple 1D model of bed-form propagation is used to demonstrate the method. The scheme is capable of recovering near-perfect parameter values and, therefore, improves the capability of our model to predict future bathymetry. Such positive results suggest the potential for application to more complex morphodynamic models.     

Remote sensing of intertidal morphological change in Morecambe Bay,U.K., between 1991 and 2007

Tidal Flats are important examples of extensive areas of natural environment that remain relatively unaffected by man. Monitoring of tidal flats is required for a variety of purposes. Remote sensing has become an established technique for the measurement of topography over tidal flats. A further requirement is to measure topographic changes in order to measure sediment budgets. To date there have been few attempts to make quantitative estimates of morphological change over tidal flat areas. This paper illustrates the use of remote sensing to measure quantitative and qualitative changes in the tidal flats of Morecambe Bay during the relatively long period 1991–2007. An understanding of the patterns of sediment transport within the Bay is of considerable interest for coastal management and defence purposes. Tidal asymmetry is considered to be the dominant cause of morphological change in the Bay, with the higher currents associated with the flood tide being the main agency moulding the channel system. Quantitative changes were measured by comparing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the intertidal zone formed using the waterline technique applied to satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images from 1991–1994, to a second DEM constructed from airborne laser altimetry data acquired in 2005. Qualitative changes were studied using additional SAR images acquired since 2003. A significant movement of sediment from below Mean Sea Level (MSL) to above MSL was detected by comparing the two Digital Elevation Models, though the proportion of this change that could be ascribed to seasonal effects was not clear. Between 1991 and 2004 there was a migration of the Ulverston channel of the river Leven north-east by about 5 km, followed by the development of a straighter channel to the west, leaving the previous channel decoupled from the river. This is thought to be due to independent tidal and fluvial forcing mechanisms acting on the channel. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing for measurement of long-term morphological change in tidal flat areas. An alternative use of waterlines as partial bathymetry for assimilation into a morphodynamic model of the coastal zone is also discussed.     

Patterns of Activity of the Sea Urchin Paracentrotus lividus in the Bay of Port-Cros (Var, France, Mediterranean)

Abstract. Tagged individuals of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus followed in Port Cros Island showed mostly nocturnal movements, with individual peaks of activity which were not coordinated for the population during the night period. The straight line distance travelled in 24 h has a mean value of 49 cm, with a range of 0 to 240 cm. Neither sea urchin size nor depth affect activity. The urchins living on rocky substrate moved significantly more than those on seagrass beds. From one day to another, the distance travelled by the population of urchins varies significantly; this is not related to season. The activity is negatively correlated with the mean wind speed; during a period of turbulence lasting several hours, movement was significantly oriented to the deep. Periods of inactivity of 1 or 2 days were observed; they are not coordinated for the individuals followed, and the relation between feeding and movement is not clear. Urchins seem to stay in a quite small area, at least for some months.     

Regional study on potential CO2 geosequestration in the Collie Basin and the Southern Perth Basin of Western Australia

Coal-fired power stations in Collie, Western Australia emit 10 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. This study assesses the potential opportunities of geological storage of CO₂ both within the Collie Basin and the onshore part of the adjacent Southern Perth Basin of Western Australia within 50 km of Collie town site through a desktop evaluation of existing data. The aquifers and coal formations within both basins have been evaluated for their suitability for storage based on geological, geographical and environmental criteria related to storage capacity, injectivity, proximity to sources of CO₂, location of other natural resources and containment security. The study has concluded that there is limited scope for large-scale storage of CO₂ within the Collie Basin. In addition the potential for storage within coals of either basin is not a viable solution. This assessment is based on published criteria for CO₂ storage in sedimentary basins and coal-bearing formations.     

Geological structure and kinematics of normal faults in the Otway Basin,Australia, based on quantitative analysis of 3‐D seismic reflection data

The Otway Basin in the south of Victoria, Australia underwent three phases of deformation during breakup of the southern Australian margin. We assess the geometry and kinematics of faulting in the basin by analysing a 3‐D reflection seismic volume. Eight stratigraphic horizons and 24 SW‐dipping normal faults as well as subordinate antithetic faults were interpreted. This resulted in a high‐resolution geological 3‐D model (ca. 8 km × 7 km × 4 km depth) that we present as a supplementary 3‐D PDF (Data S1). We identified hard‐ and soft‐linking fault connections over the entire area, such as antithetic faults and relay ramps, respectively. Most major faults were continuously active from Early to Late Cretaceous, with two faults in the northern part of the study area active until at least the Oligocene. Allan maps of faults show tectonic activity continuously waned over this time period. Isopach maps of stratigraphic volumes quantify the amount of syn‐sedimentary movement that is characteristic of passive margins, such as the Otway Basin. We show that the faults possess strong corrugations (with amplitudes above the seismic resolution), which we illustrated by novel techniques, such as cylindricity and curvature. We argue that the corrugations are produced by sutures between sub‐vertical fault segments and this morphology was maintained during fault growth. Thus, they can be used to indicate the kinematics vector of the fault movement. This evidences, together with left‐stepping relay ramps, that 40% of the faults had a small component (up to 25°) of dextral oblique slip as well as normal (dip‐slip) movement.