Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.     

Earth's rotation variations: a wavelet analysis

Historical to up‐to‐date data of the minute variations in the solid Earth's rotation are subjected to a comprehensive time‐frequency wavelet analysis. The length‐of‐day for the period 1962–2012 confirms the presence of a prominent, robust 6‐year periodicity and reveals an anomalously strong 18.6‐year tidal oscillation as well as a ~13‐year quasi‐periodic signal. The polar‐motion excitation for the period 1900–2012 validates the existence of the ~26‐year Markowitz wobble and shows an ~8‐year quasi‐periodic signal, but no appreciable 18.6‐year periodicity. Although it is known that exchanges of angular momentum with the geophysical fluids are responsible for the rotational variations of the solid Earth, the exact physical mechanisms involved on interannual‐to‐decadal timescales are still far from understood.     

纬圈平均大气运动特征的振动

本文考虑高度非线性的大气中期运动是一种准涡旋运动,引用了准涡旋观点和方法来处理二维无辐散和三维运动方程,即在开始时保留涡旋项,而在对方程进行纬圈平均后,去掉一些涡旋项,得到了某些大气运动特征如西风指数、纬向动量和涡度的经向输送的纬圈平均值等的变化或摆动的振动方程,并求出谐波解。振动周期决定于经向动能二倍的纬圈平均值的平方根(v2)1/2。基本周期约二十天左右。所得结果可能对极端复杂的大气运动总有出现中期振动的趋势和精致设计的圆盘模拟实验出现摆动的事实,提供某种程度的动力学解释,同时也可能对中期预报的实践提供一些依据。本文的主要科学目的,是想指出对极端复杂的大气中期过程还是可能用线性理论来研究其某些特征的。     

The nonlinear association between ENSO and the Euro-Atlantic winter sea level pressure

A nonlinear projection of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) onto the Northern Hemisphere winter sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies by neural networks (NN) was performed to investigate the nonlinear association between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Euro-Atlantic winter climate. While the linear impact of ENSO on the Euro-Atlantic winter SLP is weak, the NN projection reveals statistically significant SLP anomalies over the Euro-Atlantic sector during both extreme cold and warm ENSO episodes, suggesting that the Euro-Atlantic climate mainly responds to ENSO nonlinearly. The nonlinear response, mainly a quadratic response to the SSTA, reveals that regardless of the sign of the SSTA, positive SLP anomalies are found over the North Atlantic, stretching from eastern Canada to Europe (with anomaly center located just northwestward of Portugal), and negative anomalies centered over Scandinavia and Norwegian Sea, consistent with the excitation of the positive North Atlantic Oscillation pattern.     

A semi‐distributed parallel‐type linear reservoir rainfall‐runoff model and its application in Taiwan

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a semi‐distributed parallel surface rainfall‐runoff conceptual model. In this paper, a general solution of the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) has been derived successfully for N linearly connected reservoirs, each having a different storage constant. The solution is a function of geomorphologic parameters, meteorologic factors and roughness coefficients. The model also takes into account the hydrologic response which is influenced by outflow downstream of a reservoir. For calibration, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm is used to search for the global optimal parameters of the model. Because of the parallel structure, the mean roughness parameter of the channel becomes a “conceptual” parameter without a real physical meaning. To evaluate the adaptability of the model adopted, three watersheds around the city of Taipei in Taiwan were chosen to test the effectiveness of the model. The study provides an appropriate rainfall‐runoff model for planning flood mitigation in Taiwan. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A method for quantifying living roots of Spartina (cordgrass) and Juncus (needlerush)

Quantifying living roots in a marsh is a necessary but difficult task in wetland research. The two main difficulties usually encountered are distinguishing living from dead roots and processing a dense mat of fine roots. We found that living roots of salt-marsh plants release much more dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in boiling water than dead roots. Based on the finding, we developed a DOC procedure to quantify living roots of Spartina alterniflora and Juncus roemerianus. The DOC released in boiling water is a function of root activity, and the amount released can be used to calculate the living root biomass of a sample. The amount of living roots determined by the DOC method correlated well with the amount of living roots determined by the manual, sorting method (r² = 0.78, p<0.01). The DOC method is more objective, precise, and much less tedious than the manual sorting method.     

An Assessment of Structural Measures for Flood-prone Lowlands with High Population Density along the Keelung River in Taiwan

Midstream of the Keelung River Basin in Northern Taiwan has become highly urbanized and densely populated area. Flood inundation along riversides frequently occurred during typhoons or rainstorms. Three protection measures, including constructions of high-level protection levees, a diversion channel, and a detention reservoir, were proposed for flood mitigation. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the flood mitigation performance of the three proposed structural measures by using combined hydrologic analyses and hydraulic routings. A semi-distributed parallel-type linear reservoirs rainfall-runoff model was used for estimating the surface runoff. Furthermore, a 1-D dynamic channel routing model was coupled with a two-dimensional inundation model to simulate the hydraulic characteristics of river flooding and overland flow. Simulation results of flood stages, runoff peak discharges, and inundation extent under design rainfall scenarios were chosen as the criteria for evaluation. The results showed a diversion channel is superior to the other two measures for flood mitigation of the study area. After the process of environmental impact assessment, a revised diversion channel approach has been approved for construction as the major structural measure.     

An experimental method for determining the frequency-dependent added mass and added mass moment of inertia for a floating body in heave and pitch motions

Most of the existing relevant materials have been obtained from experiments, in which evaluating the added mass at the resonant frequency corresponding to the peak of a frequency-response curve obtained from the “forced” vibration analysis is the most popular technique. In this paper, a simple experimental method was presented where the “free” vibration responses instead of the “forced” ones were used to determine the values of m_ah and I_ap. The main part of the experimental system is composed of a floating body (model) and a spring–shaft shaker. The “free” vibration of this main part was induced by imposing on it an initial displacement (and/or an initial velocity), and from the time histories of displacements information such as the “damped” natural frequencies, damping ratios, sectional added mass coefficients (C_V and C_P) were obtained. Since the displacements of the spring–shaft shaker are “translational” and those of the floating body due to pitch motions are “angular”, a technique for the transformation between the associated parameters of the two components of the main part was presented.     

Application of a multi‐temporal,LiDAR‐derived,digital terrain model in a landslide‐volume estimation

Sediments produced by landslides are crucial in the sediment yield of a catchment, debris flow forecasting, and related hazard assessment. On a regional scale, however, it is difficult and time consuming to measure the volumes of such sediment. This paper uses a LiDAR‐derived digital terrain model (DTM) taken in 2005 and 2010 (at 2 m resolution) to accurately obtain landslide‐induced sediment volumes that resulted from a single catastrophic typhoon event in a heavily forested mountainous area of Taiwan. The landslides induced by Typhoon Morakot are mapped by comparison of 25 cm resolution aerial photographs taken before and after the typhoon in an 83.6 km² study area. Each landslide volume is calculated by subtraction of the 2005 DTM from the 2010 DTM, and the scaling relationship between landslide area and its volume are further regressed. The relationship between volume and area are also determined for all the disturbed areas (V_L = 0.452A_L^1.242) and for the crown areas of the landslides (V_L = 2.510A_L^1.206). The uncertainty in estimated volume caused by use of the LiDAR DTMs is discussed, and the error in absolute volume estimation for landslides with an area >10⁵ m² is within 20%. The volume–area relationship obtained in this study is also validated in 11 small to medium‐sized catchments located outside the study area, and there is good agreement between the calculation from DTMs and the regression formula. By comparison of debris volumes estimated in this study with previous work, it is found that a wider volume variation exists that is directly proportional to the landslide area, especially under a higher scaling exponent. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.