Changes in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystem estimated by inverse modelling: Evidence of a fishery-induced regime shift?

Mass-balance models have been constructed using inverse methodology for the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence for the mid-1980s, the mid-1990s, and the early 2000s to describe ecosystem structure, trophic group interactions, and the effects of fishing and predation on the ecosystem for each time period. Our analyses indicate that the ecosystem structure shifted dramatically from one previously dominated by demersal (cod, redfish) and small-bodied forage (e.g., capelin, mackerel, herring, shrimp) species to one now dominated by small-bodied forage species. Overfishing removed a functional group in the late 1980s, large piscivorous fish (primarily cod and redfish), which has not recovered 14 years after the cessation of heavy fishing. This has left only marine mammals as top predators during the mid-1990s, and marine mammals and small Greenland halibut during the early 2000s. Predation by marine mammals on fish increased from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s while predation by large fish on fish decreased. Capelin and shrimp, the main prey in each period, showed an increase in biomass over the three periods. A switch in the main predators of capelin from cod to marine mammals occurred, while Greenland halibut progressively replaced cod as shrimp predators. Overfishing influenced community structure directly through preferential removal of larger-bodied fishes and indirectly through predation release because larger-bodied fishes exerted top-down control upon other community species or competed with other species for the same prey. Our modelling estimates showed that a change in predation structure or flows at the top of the trophic system led to changes in predation at all lower trophic levels in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. These changes represent a case of fishery-induced regime shift.     

Contrasting changes between the northern and southern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystems associated with the collapse of groundfish stocks

In order to have a global view of ecosystem changes associated with the collapse of groundfish species in the Gulf of St. Lawrence during the early 1990s, Ecopath mass-balance models were constructed incorporating uncertainty in the input data. These models covered two ecosystems (northern and southern Gulf of St. Lawrence; NAFO divisions 4RS and 4T), and two time periods (before the collapse, in the mid-1980s, and after it, in the mid-1990s). Our analyses revealed that the ecosystem structure shifted dramatically from one previously dominated by piscivorous groundfish and small-bodied forage species during the mid-1980s to one now dominated only by small-bodied pelagic species during the mid-1990s in both southern and northern Gulf. The species structure in the northern Gulf versus southern Gulf was different, which may explain why these two ecosystems did not recover the same way from the collapse in the early 1990s. Productivity declined in the northern Gulf after the collapse but increased in the southern Gulf. The collapse of groundfish stocks resulted in declines in the mean trophic level of the landings in both the northern and the southern Gulf. Even though fishing mortality was then intentionally reduced, this part of the total mortality was taken up by predation. The temporal changes in the internal structure of both ecosystems are reflected in their overall emergent properties.