CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center??s (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200?km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i.e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2?s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process.     

Seasonal variation of the double diffusion processes at the Strait of Hormuz

Profiles of salinity and temperature were measured in the strait of Hormuz (SH) during the winter of 2012, spring and summer of 2013. To investigate the double diffusion (DD) processes, Turner (TU) angle values are calculated in all the stations in the SH. Different TU angle values correspond to salt fingering (SF), diffusive convection (DC) and stable stratification. The distributions of the two forms of DD were plotted vertically along transects in the eastern, central and western part of the SH, and corresponding DD processes were described. The results show that both SF and DC occurred in most part of the study area. Two different water masses (the Indian Ocean surface water and the Persian Gulf water) were evident at the SH, and SF and DC were evident at the interface of two water masses. Due to evaporation, SF occurred in the surface layer of most Stations throughout the year. In the eastern part of the SH, occurrences of DC were more feasible in wintertime. SF was the main phenomenon at the end of hot season. For central part, SF occurred throughout the year in water column. In the western part, water column was stable in summer and DC happened in most part of water column in winter.