Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.     

A GIS Analysis to Evaluate Areas Suitable for Crushed Stone Aggregate Quarries in New England,USA

Aggregate is a low unit-value mineral commodity. Costs to move aggregate from the mine site to the point of use is a large fraction of the resource cost to users. Production sites for aggregate occur where suitable source materials exist and where transportation and market conditions are favorable. The increasing demand for aggregate and the difficulty of developing and permitting new sites and of renewal of permits on existing sites of aggregate production indicates that aggregate will be supplied from sources yet to be developed or delineated in many areas. Site development and permitting for aggregate production is difficult because many land management plans and zoning actions fail to anticipate prospective source areas for aggregate in a way that is consistent with both the source rock quality and the transportation and socioeconomic factors that define the economic viability of the industry. Spatial analysis provides a method to integrate both geology and economic (transportation and marketplace) parameters in a regional model. Weights of evidence (WofE) analysis has been used to measure the spatial correlation of geologic map, transportation network, and population data with current production sites for crushed stone aggregate in the New England region of the northeastern United States. Weighted logistic regression (WLR) is used with the WofE results to rank areas in terms of their relative suitability for production of crushed stone. Spatial analysis indicates that 85% of the 106 crushed stone aggregate quarries in New England are sited within 1.6 km (1 mile) of either a principal highway or rail line in the region. Seventy-eight percent of crushed stone aggregate quarries are sited in census tracts with population densities exceeding 100 people/mile². These relations illustrate the importance of proximity to both transportation corridors and developing areas where aggregate is predominately used. Only one active crushed stone quarry is located in a census tract with a population density less than 15 people/mile², reflecting the lack of sufficient market demand in many rural areas to develop an operation there. However, since 1990, almost all new quarries have been developed in census tracts with population densities less than 200 people/mile², indicating the difficulty of permitting new quarry sites in highly populated areas. Crushed stone aggregate is produced predominately from three hard rock types that are distributed widely in New England; 28% of sites use granitic rock, 25% use carbonate rocks, and 25% use mafic rock types that are categorized as trap rock by the aggregate industry. The other crushed stone aggregate sources include a variety of fine-grained metamorphic rock types. Carbonate rocks and Jurassic basalt (the primary trap rock source) are the most prevalent source rocks on an area-weighted basis. Spatial analysis can be used on a regional scale to rank areas by their relative suitabilityfor crushed stone aggregate production based on geology, transportation, and population parameters. The results of this regional analysis can identify areas for more detailed evaluation. As transportation or population features change, the model can be revised easily to reflect these changes.     

Emplacement age and thermal footprint of the diamondiferous Ellendale E9 lamproite pipe, Western Australia

The diamondiferous Ellendale 9 (E9) pipe is a funnel-shaped maar-diatreme volcano consisting of inward-dipping tuff sequences intruded by lamproite plugs and dykes. The host rocks for the E9 pipe are Permian sandstones. The multiple lithological contacts exposed within the mined maar volcano provide a natural laboratory in which to study the effect of volcanic processes on U–Th–Pb–He systematics. Zircon from the regional sandstone and E9 lamproite display a bimodal distribution of ages on (U–Th)/He–U/Pb plots. The zircon U/Pb ages for the E9 pipe (n?=?52) range from 440 to 2,725 Ma, while the cluster of (U–Th)/He ages for the lamproite dyke zircon indicate that dyke emplacement occurred at 20.6?±?2.8 Ma, concordant with a maximum emplacement age of about ≤22 Ma from phlogopite ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar. These ages indicate a xenocrystic origin for the zircon entrained in the E9 dyke. The U/Pb ages of detrital zircon from the regional sandstone host (373–3,248 Ma; n?=?41) are indistinguishable from those of the lamproite zircon xenocrysts, whereas the detrital zircon in the host sandstone yield (U–Th)/He ages from 260 to 1,500 Ma. A thermochronology traverse across the E9 lamproite dyke reveals that the zircon (U–Th)/He ages in the host sandstone have not been significantly thermally reset during dyke emplacement, even at the contact. The capability of the zircon (U–Th)/He method to distinguish deep, mantle source lithologies from upper crustal source lithologies could be used in geochemical exploration for diamonds. Pre-screening of detrital samples using etching and helium assay methods will improve the efficiency and decrease the cost of greenfields exploration.     

Engineering geomorphological characterisation of the Vajont Slide,Italy, and a new interpretation of the chronology and evolution of the landslide

Although the 1963 Vajont Slide in Italy has been extensively studied for over 50 years, its regional geological and geomorphological context has been neglected. In this paper, we use field observations and remote sensing data to elucidate the interaction between endogenic and exogenic processes that brought the north slope of Monte Toc to failure. We present the first detailed pre- and post-failure engineering geomorphology maps of the slide area. The maps delineate two main landslide blocks, several sub-blocks, compressional and extensional zones, and secondary failures in the deposit. The maps provide new insights into the kinematics, dynamics and evolution of the slide. Finally, we discuss the origin of Vajont Gorge and a prehistoric failure that occurred at the same location as the 1963 slide. We propose, as part of a newly developed multi-stage landscape evolution sequence, that the prehistoric failure was a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (sackung) that initiated during deglaciation and continued to slowly move until the catastrophic failure in 1963. We argue that the gorge was created by these deep-seated slow movements.     

Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.     

Faecal indicator bacteria in New Zealand freshwater fish: a pilot study

Recent studies have suggested that poikilothermic animals, such as fish, may represent a previously overlooked source of the faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) used for the assessment of water quality. However, quantitative studies of FIB in poikilotherms are scarce. We investigated the presence of FIB in the faeces of five freshwater fish species. E. coli and enterococci were detected in 71 and 76% of faecal samples, respectively. Concentrations were highly variable, with maximum concentrations (2.1?×?10⁴ E. coli and 1.3?×?10⁶ enterococci per gram of faecal material) up to four orders of magnitude higher than present in the water column. FIB were not detected in faecal samples from marine fish. Our findings suggest that FIB ingested from the environment may be capable of replication within the fish gut, making fish a potential source and transport mechanism for FIB in New Zealand freshwaters. This may have implications for water quality monitoring.     

Evidence for the enhanced lability of dissolved organic matter following permafrost slope disturbance in the Canadian High Arctic

Arctic landscapes are believed to be highly sensitive to climate change and accelerated disturbance of permafrost is expected to significantly impact the rate of carbon cycling. While half the global soil organic matter (SOM) is estimated to reside in Arctic soils, projected warmer temperatures and permafrost disturbance will release much of this SOM into waterways in the form of dissolved organic matter (DOM). The spring thaw and subsequent flushing of soils releases the highest contributions of DOM annually but has historically been undersampled due to the difficulties of sampling during this period. In this study, passive samplers were placed throughout paired High Arctic watersheds during the duration of the 2008 spring flush in Nunavut, Canada. The watersheds are very similar with the exception of widespread active layer detachments (ALDs) that occurred within one of the catchments during a period of elevated temperatures in the summer of 2007. DOM samples were analyzed for structural and spectral characteristics via nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and fluorescence spectroscopy as well as vulnerability to degradation with simulated solar exposure. Lignin-derived phenols were further assessed utilizing copper(II) oxide (CuO) oxidation and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The samples were found to have very low dissolved lignin phenol content (∼0.07% of DOC) and appear to originate from primarily non-woody angiosperm vegetation. The acid/aldehyde ratios for dissolved vanillyl phenols were found to be high (up to 3.6), indicating the presence of highly oxidized lignin. Differences between DOM released from the ALD vs. the undisturbed watershed suggest that these shallow detachment slides have significantly impacted the quality of Arctic DOM. Although material released from the disturbed catchment was found to be highly oxidized, DOM in the lake into which this catchment drained had chemical characteristics indicating high contributions from microbial and/or primary productivity. The resulting pool of dissolved carbon within the lake appears to be more biologically- and photochemically-labile than material from the undisturbed system. These disturbances may have implications for projected climate warming; sustained elevated temperatures would likely perpetuate widespread ALDs and further affect carbon cycling in this environment.     

Hydrogen isotope ratios of leaf wax n-alkanes in grasses are insensitive to transpiration

We analyzed hydrogen isotope ratios of high-molecular weight n-alkanes (δD_l) and oxygen isotope ratios of α-cellulose (δ¹⁸O_C) for C₃ and C₄ grasses grown in the field and in controlled-environment growth chambers. The relatively firm understanding of ¹⁸O-enrichment in leaf water and α-cellulose was used to elucidate fractionation patterns of δD_l signatures. In the different relative humidity environments of the growth chambers, we observed clear and predictable effects of leaf-water enrichment on δ¹⁸O_C values. Using a Craig-Gordon model, we demonstrate that leaf water in the growth chamber grasses should have experienced significant D-enriched due to transpiration. Nonetheless, we found no effect of transpirational D-enrichment on the δD_l values. In field samples, we saw clear evidence of enrichment (correlating with relative humidity of the field sites) in both δ¹⁸O_C and δD_l. These seemingly contrasting results could be explained if leaf waxes are synthesized in an environment that is isotopically similar to water entering plant roots due to either temporal or spatial isolation from evaporatively enriched leaf waters. For grasses in the controlled environment, there was no enrichment of source water, whereas enrichment of grass source water via evaporation from soils and/or stems was likely for grass samples grown in the field.Based on these results, evaporation from soils and/or stems appears to affect δD_l, but transpiration from leaves does not. Further evidence for this conclusion is found in modeling expected net evapotranspirational enrichment. A Craig-Gordon model applied to each of the field sites yields leaf water oxygen isotope ratios that can be used to accurately predict the observed δ¹⁸O_C values. In contrast, the calculated leaf water hydrogen isotope ratios are more enriched than what is required to predict observed δD_l values. These calculations lend support to the conclusion that while δ¹⁸O_C reflects both soil evaporation and transpiration, δD_l appears to only record evaporation from soils and/or stems. Therefore, the δD of n-alkanes can likely be used to reconstruct the δD of water entering a leaf, supporting the soil-enrichment model of Smith and Freeman (2006). In both the field and controlled studies, we found significant photosynthetic pathway effects on n-alkane δD suggesting that biochemical pathways or plant phylogeny have a greater effect on leaf wax δD than leaf-water enrichment in grasses.