扬子克拉通北缘神农架地区矿石山组Pb-Pb等时线年龄及其地质意义

扬子克拉通北缘神农架地区出露了大量中元古代碳酸盐岩地层,但已有的同位素年代学资料有限,故对神农架群矿石山组白云岩开展了全岩Pb-Pb等时线测年.研究结果表明,矿石山组白云岩206Pb/204Pb变化范围相对较大,为18.753~23.106,而207Pb/204Pb和208Pb/204Pb则变化范围相对较小,分别为15.606~16.046和37.793~38.599.八件白云岩样品206Pb/204Pb和207Pb/204Pb之间呈良好的线性关系,构成Pb-Pb等时线年龄为1632±75Ma(MSWD=8.7),代表了矿石山组地层主体沉积时代,与已有的年代学结果可对应,表明Pb-Pb同位素体系可对古老的碳酸盐岩地层进行较为精确地定年.结合前人对于神农架群的年代学资料,确定神农架群的沉积时限应为1600~1100Ma的中元古代.      

Influence of Sea Surface Temperature on the Predictability of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensity

The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity.     

华南夏季降水的变化特征及其与热带太平洋海温异常的关系

根据1958-2008年华南48站降水资料、NOAA全球逐月海温格点资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用EOF分解、相关、合成等统计方法,分析了华南夏季降水的变化特征及其与冬季热带太平洋海温的关系。结果表明,华南夏季降水变化特征主要表现为,空间分布以全区一致型为主,其次是南北反相对称型和东西反相对称型,且这3种分布模态都表现出显著的年际和年代际特征。全区一致型降水异常与热带太平洋海温显著相关,二者的相关性也具有年代际变化特征,其对应的热带太平洋海温具有沿赤道太平洋呈“负-正-负”的纬向分布型,类似于中部型El Nino。全区降水偏多时期,西南季风偏强,西太平洋副热带高压偏强、脊点位置偏西,南亚高压偏强、脊点位置偏东,总体的环流形势有利于华南地区的水汽输送和上升运动;降水偏少时期,情况相反。     

基于埋深变化的川南龙马溪组页岩孔隙特征及控制因素分析

[研究目的]中国浅层-中深层页岩气勘探开发技术已经趋于成熟,深层页岩成为下一步勘探开发的重点,探明不同埋深条件下页岩的孔隙特征及其控制因素利于推动深层页岩的评优选区工作.[研究方法]本文基于核磁共振、场发射扫描电镜和X-射线衍射等实验分析手段,对比性评价了川南地区不同深度的龙马溪组页岩孔隙度、孔隙结构参数特征并进行影响...     

南海局地海域一次低空大气波导过程分析

根据2006年12月7日在长山山脉以东的南海海域加密观测的1天4次高分辨率船载GPS探空数据和NCEP-CFSR格点再分析数据,完整分析了一次低空大气波导生成、维持、消失过程。结果表明:该次冬季低空大气波导过程是由南海偏北部暖锋过境引起的,波导强度达19 M单位,厚度达250 m。暖锋过后,南海风速增大,逆温层变厚,大气波导强度减弱,最后陷获层消失,成为正常大气环境。     

脆性岩石多裂缝干扰扩展机理研究

海洋中赋存有丰富的页岩油,由于这类储层岩性致密,需要采用体积压裂技术提高产能,而研究体积压裂过程中岩体内多个天然裂缝的扩展规律及其影响因素对于裂缝网络的形成至关重要。在水力压裂主裂缝壁面上及主裂缝两侧脆性岩体的水平切面上,当存在多条同轴天然裂缝时,影响天然裂缝起裂方向及起裂条件的因素较多。因此需要在线弹性断裂力学理论的基础上,运用最大周向拉应变及平面应变理论,建立受远场地应力作用及裂缝面受水压力作用下的理论模型。根据模拟结果,在主裂缝壁面上,随着垂向应力差异系数增加,天然裂缝最小起裂净压力减小,起裂角度增加,因此天然裂缝的扩展与垂向应力的大小有重要关系,垂向压力越小则越利于形成缝网。与有一定倾斜角度的裂缝相比,垂向天然裂缝容易破裂扩展。当天然裂缝的条数增加,天然裂缝的最小起裂净压力降低,有利于形成主裂缝壁面上的裂缝网络,达到体积压裂的效果。在主裂缝两侧岩体的水平切面上,天然裂缝与最小主应力方向的夹角越大,则对应破裂压力越小,且不需要较大的缝内压力（小于最小主应力）即可破裂。存在多条裂缝时,目标裂缝张性破裂的缝内压力均降低。上述模型及应用模拟揭示了脆性岩石在水力压裂过程中,主裂缝壁面岩体...     

黑潮延伸体海洋锋强度和位置变率的对比研究

This study compares the seasonal and interannual-to-decadal variability in the strength and position of the Kuroshio Extension front(KEF) using high-resolution satellite-derived sea surface temperature(SST) and sea surface height(SSH) data. Results show that the KEF strength has an obvious seasonal variation that is similar at different longitudes, with a stronger(weaker) KEF during the cold(warm) season. However, the seasonal variation in the KEF position is relatively weak and varies with longitude. In contrast, the low-frequency variation of the KEF position is more distinct than that of the KEF strength even though they are well correlated. On both seasonal and interannual-to-decadal time scales, the western part of the KEF(142°–144°E) has the greatest variability in strength, while the eastern part of the KEF(149°–155°E) has the greatest variability in position. In addition, the relationships between wind-forced Rossby waves and the low-frequency variability in the KEF strength and position are also discussed by using the statistical analysis methods and a wind-driven hindcast model. A positive(negative) North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)-like atmospheric forcing generates positive(negative) SSH anomalies over the central North Pacific. These oceanic signals then propagate westward as Rossby waves, reaching the KE region about three years later, favoring a strengthened(weakened) and northward(southward)-moving KEF.     

耦合Lorenz模型的吸引子特性及其可预报性分析

通过改变耦合Lorenz模型中控制快、慢子系统之间耦合强度的参数,本文探究了耦合强度对该系统的混沌吸引子特性及可预报性的影响。结果表明：随着耦合增强,快系统中显示出与慢系统类似的低频变化特征,其吸引子也随之变大;而慢系统高频分量变大,导致其变率增强,吸引子轨道变得更加密集。在此基础上,利用非线性局部Lyapunov指数方法定量分析了耦合强度对耦合Lorenz系统可预报性的影响。具体来说,在耦合之后,耦合系统的对数误差增长曲线包含前后两段不同的误差增长率,分别代表快速和慢速误差增长过程。此外,各子系统的可预报性对耦合强度变化响应并不一致,随着对快系统的耦合强度增加,快/慢两个不同尺度系统的可预报上限均减少。然而,增加对慢系统的耦合强度却只能提高快系统的可预报上限,对慢系统的可预报性改变不大。