A New Probability of Detection Model for Updating Crack Distribution of Offshore Structures

1 .IntroductionNondestructiveinspection (NDI)isveryimportantforensuringthereliabilityofoffshorestructuresintheirservicelives (Lauraetal.,1 996 ) .Itiswellknownthatdetectionofflawsinvolvesconsider ablestatisticaluncertainties.Asaresult,theprobabilityofdetection (POD)forallflawsofagivensizehasbeenusedintheliteraturetodefinethecapabilityofaparticularNDItechniqueinagivenen vironment.SincethedataofPODusuallyscatterlargely ,itisdifficulttodeterminewhichmodelfitstheavailabledatabest.Thismodelun…     

灾害海洋环境下TLP深水张紧式生产立管安全性评估

针对我国南海海域可能出现的超过百年一遇的灾害性海况,结合挪威船级社的DeepC以及ABAQUS软件,通过全系统耦合分析获得张紧式生产立管随TLP平台在灾害海况下的强迫运动,并考虑波浪、流等环境载荷的联合作用,研究TLP张紧式生产立管在灾害海况下的随机结构动力响应。根据广义极值理论对随机结果数据进行拟合后,基于相应规范进行强度分析,完成立管在灾害海洋环境下的安全性评估。     

固定式海洋平台结构风险设计方法综述

海洋平台的结构设计中主要考虑海洋环境和工作荷载作用,但近年来事故荷载的影响日益引起设计者关注。在此背景下,以固定式导管架平台结构为目标,综述当前针对事故荷载的风险设计方法的应用现状。首先论述在事故极限状态设计中应用风险分析的必要性;随后综述通用规范,如NORSOK、DNV、API等规范系列中对风险分析方法的使用现状,包括风险决策的不同层次、安全标准的各类形式,重在分析各类规范相关规定的异同,探讨各类方法的适用性;最后结合我国现状,论述若针对事故荷载编制基于风险方法的设计规范,目前尚存的问题,以及解决途径。     

竖向荷载下群桩-土-承台相互作用数值分析

在大桩径、小桩距的群桩条件下,不仅有来自桩侧、桩端和承台传递的多重应力叠加,还有群桩对桩间土的夹持作用影响,桩-土-承台之间作用更加复杂。用有限差分软件模拟固定桩距、桩径,变化竖向荷载下桩-土-承台的相互作用。从各层土的侧摩阻力、不同位置桩的桩顶荷载、荷载-沉降关系、桩间土体位移等方面的计算结果分析桩-土-承台之间的相互影响。结果表明,荷载超出117.8 MN（略大于Pu/2,Pu为群桩极限承载力）后,群桩对上部桩间土的夹持作用开始减小,桩侧上部侧摩阻力增大;桩侧下部侧摩阻力在多重应力叠加作用下呈减小趋势,不同位置的桩侧摩阻力影响范围有差异;用群桩沉降达到5%倍桩径时的荷载作为群桩的竖向极限承载力是可取的;当沉降与桩径的比值超出1%后,承台分担荷载的比例逐渐增大,群桩分担荷载的比例减小。     

基于谱分析法的深水半潜式平台疲劳强度分析

以某新型深水半潜式钻井平台为分析对象,依据三维绕射理论计算单位波幅下波浪诱导载荷,通过建立三维有限元模型计算完成了热点应力响应。运用热点应力的谱分析法计算得到危险节点的疲劳寿命,并进一步分析了各个短期海况和不同浪向对节点总的疲劳损伤度的贡献。研究结果表明,危险节点的疲劳寿命都满足设计寿命要求;在各种中低海况下,疲劳损伤主要来自于平均跨零周期在6 s附近,有义波高转大的短期海况;平台关键连接部位的疲劳损伤主要是在横浪和斜浪状态下产生的,并且对某单一方向的波浪非常敏感。此研究对该类型平台的连接处结构设计和疲劳分析方法有参考意义。     

深海平台系泊系统在灾害性海洋环境下可靠性评估

基于深海平台系统的耦合时域分析技术和结构可靠性理论,分析深水系泊系统在灾害性极限海况下的失效模式。根据系泊链的结构形式特点,建立破断强度的概率模型;并根据系泊链动力响应时间历程,采用广义极值理论,通过对非线性随机动力响应的数值拟合,提出建立载荷概率模型的方法。并以某半潜平台系泊系统为研究对象,通过不同极限环境条件下的分析对比,研究载荷方向对可靠性指标的影响。根据分析结果可知,在200年一遇海况下,当环境载荷方向是135°时,系统可靠性指标,已低于目标可靠性指标要求,该系泊系统处于不安全状态。     

深海顶张紧式立管涡激振动疲劳可靠性研究

以深海顶端张紧式立管为研究对象,基于圆柱体受迫振荡实验数据和能量平衡原理预报立管涡激振动响应及其诱发的疲劳损伤度,各主要参数随机化,应用响应面法建立了涡激振动疲劳安全系数与极限状态方程关系,研究了疲劳安全系数对结构可靠性的影响,并分析了各随机变量的灵敏度。研究结果表明:1)随着疲劳安全系数的增大,结构失效概率逐渐减小,且失效概率的减小幅度随疲劳安全系数的增加而趋缓。疲劳安全系数SF无需超过20。2)增加疲劳安全系数SF可降低疲劳载荷不确定量B、S-N曲线参数A、顶张力、流速、外径和壁厚等立管及环境随机变量对结构涡激振动疲劳损伤可靠性的影响。3)立管各参数中,流速、外径和壁厚均值越大,立管结构安全度越低,顶张力对结构影响相反;各参数的标准差越大,结构可靠度越低。均值灵敏度由大到小依次为顶张力、流速、外径和壁厚,标准差灵敏度由大到小依次为流速、张力、外径和壁厚。4)壁厚对深海顶张紧式立管涡激振动所致疲劳损伤影响很小,可忽略其影响。研究成果可为深海顶张紧式立管涡激振动疲劳安全系数的选取提供参考。     

管道结构垂向—侧向耦合管土作用机理性试验研究

钢制悬链线式立管的触地段与海床会发生频繁的相互作用,对管道的安全性影响很大。首先探索干土环境下管土作用的机理有助于更好地理解真实海况下管道—湿土作用规律。试验测试是研究管土作用最可信最直接的手段。进行了垂向及侧向管土作用机理性试验,根据土体抗剪强度验证了试验中相互作用机理与管道尺寸的无关性。研究了不同运动速度对土体反力的影响,发现运动速度对垂向及侧向管土作用均存在一定的放大效应,而垂向低速工况下放大效应不明显;接着分别研究了垂向与侧向管土作用的规律,分析了土体反力变化的成因,最后针对管土垂向—侧向的耦合效应进行研究,发现不同的垂向深度会极大地影响侧向管土作用。为后续的管道—含水土体相互作用试验奠定基础,也可为陆上管土作用相关研究提供参考与建议。     

Risk Based Optimal Inspection and Repair Planning for Ship Structures Subjected to Corrosion Deterioration

A framework of risk based inspection and repair planning was presented to optimize for the ship structures subjected to corrosion deterioration. The planning problem was formulated as an optimization problem where the expected lifetime costs were minimized with a eonstraint on the minimum aceeptable rehability index. The safety margins were established for the inspection events, the repair events and the failure events for ship struetures. Moreover, the formulae were derived to calculate failure probabihties and repair probabilities. Based on them, a component subjected to corrosion is investigated for illustration of the process of selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. Furthermore, some sensitivity studies were provided. The results show that the optimal inspection instants should take place before the reliability index reaches the minimum acceptable reliability index. The optimal target failure probability is 10^-3. In addition, a balance can be achieved between the risk cost and total expected inspection and repair costs by means of the risk-based optimal inspection and repair method, which is very effective in selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy.     

Dynamic stress analysis of the leg joints of self-elevating platform

Since a self-elevating platform often works in water for a long time,the lattice leg is largely influenced by wave and current.The amplitude of leg joint stresses is a very important factor for the fatigue life of the platform.However,there are not many researches having been done on the mechanism and dynamic stress analysis of these leg joints.This paper focuses on the dynamic stress analysis and suppression methods of the leg joints of self-elevating platforms.Firstly,the dynamic stresses of the lattice leg joints are analyzed for a self-elevating platform by use of the 5th-order Stokes wave theory.Secondly,the axial and bending stresses are studied due to their large contributions to total stresses.And then,different joint types are considered and the leg-hull interface stiffness is analyzed for the improvement of the joint dynamic stress amplitude.Finally,some useful conclusions are drawn for the optimization design of the self-elevating platform.