东亚岛弧地形横剖面与板块运动

通过对东亚岛弧横剖面形态的系统分析，并结合弧前的构造应力的分析，作者认为，东亚岛弧形成于板块东移的构造环境中，横剖面形态存在两种基本类型即内缓外陡型和内陡外缓型，这两种不同的横剖面具有不同的弧前应力，前者表现弧前挤压，后者表现弧前引张，这反映地貌形态与构造应力之间的密切关系。     

基于遥感数据的常熟市耕地资源数量动态变化分析

采用RS和GIS技术，对常熟市1984—2001年间土地利用进行调查，获得了1984、1992、1999、2001年四个时期的土地利用状况及其变化资料。通过多时期对比分析发现：1984—1992年，居民点工矿占用耕地、耕地变成水域和耕地变成交通用地，分别占耕地转出总面积的56．7％、36．6％和5．4％。1992—1999年上述各项则分别占耕地转出总面积的47．3％、45．7％和7．0％。1999——2001年分别占耕地转出总面积的2．4％、95．6％和1．3％。1999年以后农村农业结构调整已经成为耕地面积减少的主要原因，应通过制定区域农业中长期发展规划和法规进行宏观调控。     

参加第27届国际大地测量学与地球物理学联合会会议总结

1概况2019年7月7-15日,国家气候中心任宏利、史学丽、李伟平、房永杰、谢冰、冯爱青赴加拿大蒙特利尔参加第27届国际大地测量学与地球物理学联合会(IUGG:the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics)大会。     

陆面过程模式研究简评

主要总结了陆面过程模式的发展状况, 对一些国际间合作进行的计划、试验成果以及我国在这方面的研究情况加以介绍和评述, 最后给出陆面模拟研究中存在的难点、问题及可能的解决途径.     

Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model （RegCM_NCC） Part Ⅱ： The Experimental Seasonal Prediction

A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part I. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model’s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991–2000) for summer (June–August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.     

2007年初夏腾冲连阴雨天气过程分析

应用Micaps系统资源,并结合腾冲单站L波段雷达高空探测资料、乡镇雨量监测点资料进行分析,认为腾冲连阴雨天气是在孟湾MCC作用下产生的。孟湾低压的维持发展提供源源不断的水汽输送是造成腾冲持续连阴雨天气的主要原因;腾冲境内雨量分布由南向北增多的趋势,与腾冲独特的地形有关。充分使用单站现有的探测资料如假相当位温等物理量等对做好局地强降水预报具有指导作用。