Will the river Irtysh survive the year 2030? Impact of long-term unsuitable land use and water management of the upper stretch of the river catchment (North Kazakhstan)

The Irtysh river basin all the way from river spring in China across Kazakhstan as far as the Russian part of Siberia is among the most ecologically endangered and affected regions on our planet. The study provides a summary of the historical reasons for anthropological interventions in this area, which began with the construction of plants of the military—industrial complexes in the forties of the last century during World War II. These plants have a major share in extreme high concentrations of heavy metals in surface as well in groundwaters locally. The Semipalatinsk nuclear polygon plays a specific role as a source of contamination of local waters. The release of top secret data enabled us to gain knowledge about serious problems related to high radioactivity of groundwaters, which should spread uncontrollably through a system of secondary fissures activated by nuclear blasts. Another serious problem in this region is the quantitative aspect of contamination. Model simulations of water balance indicate that large industrial development in the spring area in China and continuously increasing water consumption in Kazakhstan may lead to desiccation of the lower stretch of this large river in Siberia during the summer months of 2030.     

Comparison of several methods for the solution of the Helmholtz equation

Summary A series of Helmholtz equations has to be solved in short-range weather forecast models which use a splitting scheme of integration. For these purposes the successive overrelaxation, the Gauss-Seidel relaxation, the conjugate gradient method, the steepest descent method, the full-multigrid method and the direct method based on the minimum degree algorithm were used and their efficiencies were compared. It was found that the full-multigrid method was the most efficient among the iterative methods in terms of computational time, and that the effect rapidly increased with the grid size. The direct method may be an appropriate approach if the solution is repeated for various right-hand sides, but it requires large auxiliary computer memory. The selection of the optimum method depends on the concrete problem being solved and on the computer memory available.     

A radar-based verification of precipitation forecast for local convective storms

Local flash flood storms with a rapid hydrological response are a real challenge for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). It is relevant to assess space domains, to which the QPF approaches are applicable. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the forecasting capability of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by means of area-related QPF verification. The results presented concern two local convective events, which occurred in the Czech Republic (CR) on 13 and 15 July 2002 and caused local flash floods. We used the LM COSMO model (Lokall Model of the COSMO consortium) adapted to the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km over a model domain covering the CR. The 18 h forecast of convective precipitation was verified by using radar rainfall totals adjusted to the measured rain gauge data. The grid point-related root mean square error (RMSE) value was calculated over a square around the grid point under the assumption that rainfall values were randomly distributed within the square. The forecast accuracy was characterized by the mean RMSE over the whole verification domain. We attempt to show a dependence of both the RMSE field and the mean RMSE on the square size. The importance of a suitable merger between the radar and rain gauge datasets is demonstrated by a comparison between the verification results obtained with and without the gauge adjustment. The application of verification procedure demonstrates uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts. The model was integrated with initial conditions shifted by 0.5° distances. The four verifications, corresponding to the shifts in the four directions, show differences in the resulting QPF, which depend on the size of verification area and on the direction of the shift.     

To what extent can atmospheric deposition influence the natural background of metals in ground waters? A case study in the Czech Republic

In harmony with requirements of Water Framework Directive the natural backgrounds of selected metals were established on the territory of Czech Republic. This paper is intended to provide characteristics and results of testing methods focused on quantification of the impacts of anthropogenic activities based on data of regional monitoring and their separation from acid atmospheric deposition including an appropriate discussion regarding the natural backgrounds of relevant metals. The results indicate that even in regions extremely affected by acid atmospheric deposition as is the territory of the Czech Republic this acid deposition will not have direct impact on the quality of ground waters on a regional scale. Consequently, the proved changes in quality of ground waters seem to have been caused by secondary processes, specifically by mobilization of metals in a rock environment due to increased acidity.     

An estimation of the probable maximum precipitation for river basins in the Czech Republic

The hydro-meteorological evaluation of a flood event in July 1997 (the Odra flood in Central Europe) demonstrated that new procedures to estimate design floods for the reservoir outflow structures in the Czech Republic (CR) were needed. Therefore, the techniques of the estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) were developed in a national research project (1998–2000), and the activity focused on the improvement of the area related PMP estimates was going on within a present national project. In the frame of the evaluation of the next extreme precipitation event in August 2002 (the Labe flood in the CR and Germany), we compared the catchments related precipitation with the PMP estimates. In this paper, an outline of the PMP estimation techniques is given and the use of data from the Czech gauges is described, the aim being the statistical derivation of the point and area PMP estimates for precipitation duration of 1 to 5 days. The use of radar data in assessing the maximized area reduction factor is discussed and the relationship resulting from the radar measurements over the CR territory is presented. An evaluation of the radar-based area rainfall enabled us to transform the point PMP to the area PMP estimate designed for the river basins in CR. In the last part of the paper, the results obtained by comparing the rainfalls in 1997 and 2002 flood events with the PMP estimates are presented. The comparison showed that the maximum area rainfalls over small Czech catchments (the 3rd order river basins) did not exceed 63% of the corresponding PMP values.     

Insights into palaeorecharge conditions for European deep aquifers

Climatic instability during the late Pleistocene has been reflected in the pattern of groundwater recharge. This report summarizes palaeoclimate knowledge during the late Weichselian in Europe. During this period the majority of northern Europe was covered by thick ice sheets and permafrost, preventing aquifers from recharging. In contrast, southern Europe was generally free of these palaeoclimatic features. Palaeoclimatic information has been combined with isotope data to better understand the palaeorecharge conditions and recharge timing across the European continent. The ¹⁸O and ²H relationship shows latitudinal plus climatic influences. Radiocarbon data show that while southern European aquifers have generally been recharged continuously during the last 40,000 years, northern European aquifers typically show a recharge gap during the Last Glacial Maximum. Areas that underwent continuous recharge during the entire late Pleistocene period can also be distinguished from areas where recharge to aquifers was prevented during the Last Glacial Maximum. Finally, several examples are presented of melt-water recharge or subglacial recharge. The identification of such diversity in the groundwater palaeorecharge in Europe is of great importance for modellers developing management schemes for groundwater resources.     

Climate change in Central Europe and the sensitivity of the hard rock aquifer in the Bohemian Massif to decline of recharge: case study from the Bohemian Massif

Climate change in Central Europe is manifested by periods of drought during the summer months of years when there is a reduction in atmospheric precipitation and temporary accumulation of water in the form of snow during winter period. The shallow sub-surface aquifer in crystalline rocks is very vulnerable to this decline in rainfall. Monitoring and subsequent model simulations revealed that the groundwater level in recharge areas had been lowered by almost 10 m, but the study also showed that levels in discharge areas are significantly more stable. The transmissivity of hard rock aquifers evidently shows changes in both space and time. The temperature rise results in increasing values of evapotranspiration that is manifested by a gentle but long-lasting groundwater-level decline.     

Groundwater resources use and management in the Amu Darya River Basin (Central Asia)

This paper analyses groundwater resources use and management in the socio-economic context of the Amu Darya River Basin which covers a part of the following landlocked Central Asian countries: Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. These agrarian nations for sustaining their vital agricultural productions started to use groundwater during the recent drought years (1998–2001) because of its relatively good quality and quantity and as an alternative to highly mineralized surface waters. Present extent of groundwater resources use is discussed with consideration to their reserves, quality, and institutional management and transboundary aspects within the basin. After the collapse of the centralized water resources management system and infrastructure of the former Soviet Union, new underdeveloped systems are being practiced over the whole Amu Darya River Basin. The critical situation of groundwater management in Afghanistan is also discussed. This work attempts to document the management and use of groundwater in the Amu Darya Basin and present time management realities, with fragmented and weak national and regional regulation on groundwater. Special attention is given to groundwater resources in irrigated agriculture, which increased use in all countries of the basin is due to quick access to underground resources and relatively good quality and quantity.