Geology and hazard implications of the Maraunot notch in the Pinatubo Caldera,Philippines

The 1991 Pinatubo eruption left 5–6 km³ of debris on the volcano slopes, much of which has been mobilized into large lahars in the following rainy seasons. Also during the eruption, collapse, localized in part along preexisting faults, left a caldera 2.5 km in diameter that almost immediately began to accumulate a 1.6 × 10⁸ m³ lake. By 2001, the water had risen to the fault-controlled Maraunot Notch, the lowest, northwestern portion of the caldera rim comprising the physiographic sill of the Caldera Lake. That year, a narrow artificial canal dug into an old volcanic breccia underlying the outlet channel failed to induce a deliberate lake breakout, but discharge from heavy rains in July 2002 rapidly deepened the notch by 23 m, releasing an estimated 6.5 × 10⁷ m³ of lake water that bulked up into lahars with a volume well in excess of 1.6 × 10⁸ m³. Lakes in other volcanoes have experienced multiple breakouts, providing practical motivation for this study. Fieldwork and high-resolution digital elevation models reveal andesites and ancient lacustrine deposits, strongly fractured and deformed along a segment of the Maraunot Fault, a prominent, steeply dipping, left-lateral fault zone that trends N35°–40°W within and parallel to the notch. Seismicity in 1991 demonstrated that the Maraunot Fault is still active. The fault zone appears to have previously been the erosional locus for a large channel, filled with avalanche or landslide deposits of an earlier eruption that were exhumed by the 2002 breakout floods. The deformed lacustrine sediments, with an uncalibrated ¹⁴C age of 14,760 ± 40 year BP from a single charcoal sample, attest to the existence of an earlier lake, possibly within the Tayawan Caldera, rim remnants of which survive as arcuate escarpments. That lake may well have experienced one or more ancient breakouts as well. The 2002 event greatly reduced the possibility of another such event by scouring away the erodible breccia, leaving less erodible fractured andesites and lacustrine rocks, and by enlarging the outlet channel and its discharge capacity. Several lines of evidence indicate, however, that future lahar-generating lake breakouts at the notch may keep populations of Botolan municipality downstream at risk: (1) a volume of 9.5 × 10⁷ m³ of lake water remains perched 0.8 km above sea level; (2) seismicity in 1991 demonstrated that the Maraunot Fault is still active and movements of sufficient magnitude could enlarge the outlet and the discharge through it; (3) more likely, however, with or without earthquake activity, landslides from the steep to overhanging channel walls could block the channel again, and a major rainstorm could then cause a rise in lake level and sudden breakouts; (4) intrusion of a new dome into the bottom of the lake, possibly accompanied by phreatic explosions, could expel large volumes of lahar-generating water.     

Trace-element study and uranium-lead dating of perovskite from the Afrikanda plutonic complex, Kola Peninsula (Russia) using LA-ICP-MS

The U-Pb geochronology of perovskite is a powerful tool in constraining the emplacement age of silica-undersaturated rocks. The trace-element and U-Pb isotopic compositions of perovskite from clinopyroxenite and silicocarbonatite from the Afrikanda plutonic complex (Kola, Russia) were determined by laser-ablation inductively-coupled mass-spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). In addition, the Sr isotopic composition of perovskite was measured by isotope-dilution mass-spectrometry to better constrain the relations between its host rocks. Perovskite from the two rock types shows a different degree of enrichment in Na, Mg, Mn, Pb, Fe, Al, V, rare-earth elements, Zr, Hf, Th, U and Ta. The perovskite ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values are within analytical uncertainty of one another and fall within the range of mantle values. The ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages (corrected for common lead using ²⁰⁷Pb-method) of perovskite from silicocarbonatite statistically yield a single population with a weighted mean of 371?±?8 Ma (2σ; MSWD?=?0.071). This age is indistinguishable, within uncertainty, to the clinopyroxenite weighted mean ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 374?±?10 Ma (2σ; MSWD?=?0.18). Our data are in good agreement with the previous geochronological study of the Afrikanda complex. The observed variations in trace-element composition of perovskite from silicocarbonatite and clinopyroxenite indicate that these rocks are not related by crystal fractionation. The Sr isotopic ratios and the fact that the two rocks are coeval suggest that they were either produced from a single parental melt by liquid immiscibility, or from two separate magmas derived at different degrees of partial melting from an isotopically equilibrated, but modally complex mantle source.     

Climate change and the incidence of a forest pest in Mediterranean ecosystems: can the North Atlantic Oscillation be used as a predictor?

Many forest pest species strongly depend on temperature in their population dynamics, so that rising temperatures worldwide as a consequence of climatic change are leading to increased frequencies and intensities of insect-pest outbreaks. In the Mediterranean area, the climatic conditions are strongly linked to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), a severe pest of Pinus species in the Circunmediterranean, throughout a region of southern Spain, in relation to NAO indices. We related the percentage of forest plots with high defoliation by pine processionary moth each year with NAO values for the present and the three previous winters, using generalized linear models with a binomial error distribution. The time series is 16-year long, and we performed analyses for the whole database and for the five main pine species separately. We found a consistent relationship between the response variable and the NAO index. The relationship is stronger with pine species living at medium-high altitudes, such as Aleppo (P. halepensis), black (P. nigra), and Scots (Pinus sylvestris) pine, which show the higher defoliation intensities up to 3?years after a negative NAO phase. The results highlight, for the first time, the usefulness of using global drivers in order to understand the dynamics of pest outbreaks at a regional scale, and they open the window to the development of NAO-based predictive models as an early-warning signal of severe pest outbreaks.     

Competing rationalities in water conflict: Mining and the indigenous community in Chiu Chiu,El Loa Province,northern Chile

Conflict over water is a significant phenomenon in many parts of the world where globally linked neoliberal economic activities encroach on the lands of indigenous peoples. This case study from Chile examines how water scarcity affecting indigenous agricultural communities in the Chilean Altiplano has been exacerbated by legally sanctioned mining‐related practices. Notably, the legal framing of the 1981 Water Code promotes private ownership of water rights and enhanced mining activity usually at the expense of the ancestral territorial rights of indigenous communities. In the case of the Atacameño community of Chiu Chiu, a serious decrease in subsistence and agriculture production has been suffered as a consequence of reduced flow in the Loa River, resulting from the water intensive needs and extraction practices of the nearby Chuquicamata mine owned by Codelco, the National Copper Corporation of Chile. Via an analysis of the political ecology of competing rationalities this paper explores how an economic rationality based on utilitarian and reductionist thinking manifested by Codelco has taken precedence locally over a socionatural rationality grounded in holistic thinking and sustainability concerns as articulated by the Chiu Chiu community.     

Diversity-accuracy assessment of multiple classifier systems for the land cover classification of the Khumbu region in the Himalayas

Land cover classification of mountainous environments continues to be a challenging remote sensing problem,owing to landscape complexities exhibited by the regi...     

Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale

In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends.     

Boosting for Mineral Prospectivity Modeling: A New GIS Toolbox

With an increasing demand for raw materials, predictive models that support successful mineral exploration targeting are of great importance. We evaluated different machine learning techniques with an emphasis on boosting algorithms and implemented them in an ArcGIS toolbox. Performance was tested on an exploration dataset from the Iberian Pyrite Belt (IPB) with respect to accuracy, performance, stability, and robustness. Boosting algorithms are ensemble methods used in supervised learning for regression and classification. They combine weak classifiers, i.e., classifiers that perform slightly better than random guessing to obtain robust classifiers. Each time a weak learner is added; the learning set is reweighted to give more importance to misclassified samples. Our test area, the IPB, is one of the oldest mining districts in the world and hosts giant volcanic-hosted massive sulfide (VMS) deposits. The spatial density of ore deposits, as well as the size and tonnage, makes the area unique, and due to the high data availability and number of known deposits, well-suited for testing machine learning algorithms. We combined several geophysical datasets, as well as layers derived from geological maps as predictors of the presence or absence of VMS deposits. Boosting algorithms such as BrownBoost and Adaboost were tested and compared to Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forests (RF) and Support Vector machines (SVM) in several experiments. We found performance results relatively similar, especially to BrownBoost, which slightly outperformed LR and SVM with respective accuracies of 0.96 compared to 0.89 and 0.93. Data augmentation by perturbing deposit location led to a 7% improvement in results. Variations in the split ratio of training and test data led to a reduction in the accuracy of the prediction result with relative stability occurring at a critical point at around 26 training samples out of 130 total samples. When lower numbers of training data were introduced accuracy dropped significantly. In comparison with other machine learning methods, Adaboost is user-friendly due to relatively short training and prediction times, the low likelihood of overfitting and the reduced number of hyperparameters for optimization. Boosting algorithms gave high predictive accuracies, making them a potential data-driven alternative for regional scale and/or brownfields mineral exploration.