GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

Estimation of dynamic friction and movement history of large landslides

We performed seismic waveform inversions and numerical landslide simulations of deep-seated landslides in Japan to understand the dynamic evolution of friction of the landslides. By comparing the forces obtained from a numerical simulation to those resolved from seismic waveform inversion, the coefficient of friction during sliding was well-constrained between 0.3 and 0.4 for landslides with volumes of 2–8 ×10⁶ m³. We obtained similar coefficients of friction for landslides with similar scale and geology, and they are consistent with the empirical relationship between the volume and dynamic coefficient of friction obtained from the past studies. This hybrid method of the numerical simulation and seismic waveform inversion shows the possibility of reproducing or predicting the movement of a large-scale landslide. Our numerical simulation allows us to estimate the velocity distribution for each time step. The maximum velocity at the center of mass is 12–36 m/s and is proportional to the square root of the elevation change at the center of mass of the landslide body, which suggests that they can be estimated from the initial DEMs. About 20% of the total potential energy is transferred to the kinetic energy in our volume range. The combination of the seismic waveform inversion and the numerical simulation helps to obtain the well-constrained dynamic coefficients of friction and velocity distribution during sliding, which will be used in numerical models to estimate the hazard of potential landslides.     

Data‐driven taxonomy matching of asteroid and meteorite

The matching of asteroids and meteorites is a significant step toward a better understanding of the origin, structure, and history of the solar system. We propose a data‐driven approach for investigating common taxonomic structure between asteroids and meteorites; C‐, S‐, and V‐type for the former, and carbonaceous chondrite, ordinary chondrite, and howardite‐eucrite‐diogenite (HED) meteorite for the latter. In the numerical experiments, by checking whether the taxonomy information of meteorites improves classification for asteroid data, we examine the existence of common structure over the two domains. For this purpose, we compare the resultant accuracies of two clustering methods which are with/without the guidance of meteorite data. We observe that the guidance of meteorite taxonomy improves the accuracy for classifying asteroids, either with the reflectance spectra or major chemical compositions of meteorites. This fact serves as a piece of evidence that there is a common taxonomic structure and links between meteorites and asteroids, supporting a long‐standing hypothesis.     

Modelling the Shimokita deep coalbed biosphere over deep geological time: Starvation,stimulation, material balance and population models

Basin models can simulate geological, geochemical and geophysical processes and potentially also the deep biosphere, starting from a burial curve, assuming a thermal history and utilizing other experimentally obtained data. Here, we apply basin modelling techniques to model cell abundances within the deep coalbed biosphere off Shimokita Peninsula, Japan, drilled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 337. Two approaches were used to simulate the deep coalbed biosphere: (a) In the first approach, the deep biosphere was modelled using a material balance approach that treats the deep biosphere as a carbon reservoir, in which fluxes are governed by temperature-controlled metabolic processes that retain carbon via cell-growth and cell-repair and pass it back via cell-damaging reactions. (b) In the second approach, the deep biosphere was modelled as a microbial community with a temperature-controlled growth ratio and carrying capacity (a limit on the size of the deep biosphere) modulated by diagenetic-processes. In all cases, the biosphere in the coalbeds and adjacent habitat are best modelled as a carbon-limited community undergoing starvation because labile sedimentary organic matter is no longer present and petroleum generation is yet to occur. This state of starvation was represented by the conversion of organic carbon to authigenic carbonate and the formation of kerogen. The potential for the biosphere to be stimulated by the generation of carbon-dioxide from the coal during its transition from brown to sub-bituminous coal was evaluated and a net thickness of 20 m of lignite was found sufficient to support an order of magnitude greater number of cells within a low-total organic carbon (TOC) horizon. By comparison, the stimulation of microbial populations in a coalbed or high-TOC horizon would be harder to detect because the increase in population size would be proportionally very small.     

Two different crystallization trends of pyroxene in a tholeiitic dolerite,Semi, northern Japan

Compositional and textural relations of coexisting augite and pigeonite in a tholeiitic dolerite in Semi, northern Japan have been analysed with the electron probe microanalyser. Two different crystallization trends of augite have been recognized. In the first case, augite varies in composition from Ca₃₇ Mg₄₁ Fe₂₂ to Ca₃₅ Mg₃₂ Fe₃₃ with nearly constant Ca/Ca +Mg+Fe ratio, whereas in the second case, augite varies from Ca₃₆Mg₄₀Fe₂₄ to Ca₂₈Mg₃₅Fe₃₇ with a considerable decrease of Ca/Ca+Mg+Fe ratio. The compositional trend of augite in the first case may be explained by cotectic crystallization of augite and pigeonite, and that in the second case may be explained by metastable crystallization of subcalcic augite due to undercooling of magma. Such metastable crystallization may have resulted in local heterogeneity of magma.     

Mass-media coverage,its influence on public awareness of climate-change issues,and implications for Japan’s national campaign to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

We analyse Japanese newspaper coverage of global warming from January 1998 to July 2007 and how public opinion during parts of that period were influenced by newspaper coverage. We show that a dramatic increase in newspaper coverage of global warming from January 2007 correlated with an increase in public concern for the issue. Before January 2007, we find that coverage of global warming had an immediate but short-term influence on public concern. With such transitory high levels of media coverage we suggest that for more effective communication of climate change, strategies aimed at maintaining mass-media coverage of global warming are required.     

Chromium isotopic systematics of the Sutter's Mill carbonaceous chondrite: Implications for isotopic heterogeneities of the early solar system

Recent studies have shown that major meteorite groups possess their own characteristic ⁵⁴Cr values, demonstrating the utility of Cr isotopes for identifying genetic relationships between the planetary materials in conjunction with other classical tools, such as oxygen isotopes. In this study, we performed Cr isotope analyses for whole rocks and chemically separated phases of the new CM2 chondrite, Sutter's Mill (SM 43 and 51). The two whole rocks of Sutter's Mill show essentially identical ε⁵⁴Cr excesses (SM 43 = +0.95 ± 0.09ε, SM 51 = +0.88 ± 0.07ε), relative to the Earth. These values are the same within error with that of the CM2‐type Murchison (+0.89 ± 0.08ε), suggesting that parent bodies of Sutter's Mill and Murchison were formed from the same precursor materials in the solar nebula. Large ε⁵⁴Cr excess of up to 29.40ε is observed in the silicate phase of Sutter's Mill, while that of Murchison shows 15.74ε. Importantly, the leachate fractions of both Sutter's Mill and Murchison form a steep linear anticorrelation between ε⁵⁴Cr and ε⁵³Cr, cross‐cutting the positive correlation previously observed in carbonaceous chondrites. The fact that L4 acid leachate fraction contains higher ⁵⁴Cr excesses than that of L5 step designed to dissolve refractory minerals suggests that spinel is not a major ⁵⁴Cr carrier. We also note that L5 contains ⁵³Cr anomalies lower than the solar initial value, suggesting it carries a component of nucleosynthetic anomaly unrelated to the ⁵³Mn decay. We have identified five endmember components of nucleosynthetic origin among the early solar system materials.     

The coupling coefficients of pulsation for radiative stellar models

The second order theory of coupling is discussed regarding the radial pulsation of stellar models which are constructed ignoring convection. The formula including the nonadiabatic effect is presented. Numerical values given for model classical cepheids are considerably greater than the adiabatic values.