Drought prediction using in situ and remote sensing products with SVM over the Xiang River Basin,China

Natural Hazards - Droughts have caused many damages in many countries and might be aggravated around the world. Therefore, it is urgent to predict and monitor drought accurately. Soil moisture and...     

Field of vertical crustal deformation in North China and the feature of its dynamic evolution

ＦｉｅｌｄｏｆｖｅｒｔｉｃａｌｃｒｕｓｔａｌｄｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｉｎＮｏｒｔｈＣｈｉｎａａｎｄｔｈｅｆｅａｔｕｒｅｏｆｉｔｓｄｙｎａｍｉｃｅｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎ王若柏，洪汉净，许忠淮，耿世昌，孙东平，韩月萍Ｒｕｏ－ＢａｉＷＡＮＧ；Ｈａｎ－ＪｉｎｇＨＯＮ...     

上海地下水环境容量评价及在地面沉降控制中的应用

在分析地下水水环境容量内涵及地下水资源开发利用产生的环境效应基础上,探讨了地下水环境容量的概念,认为地下水环境容量是用来表征一定目标约束下,地下水系统对自然或人类活动影响所能承受能力的最大阙值,并以上海市为例,采用地下水临界水位、地面沉降量、地下水质作为评价指标对地下水环境容量进行了评价,并将其应用于上海市地面沉降防治工作中,剖析了地下水资源管理和地面沉降控制的工作机制。升,第四承压含水层向弹性变形态势转变,土体表现为微量回弹。     

Detection of trends in precipitation extremes in Zhejiang, east China

Extreme weather exerts a huge impact on human beings and it is of vital importance to study the regular pattern of meteorological and hydrological factors. In this paper, a selection of seven extreme indices is used to analyze the trend of precipitation extremes of 18 meteorological stations located in Zhejiang Province, east China using the Mann–Kendall test. Then the precipitation trends in the plum season (from May to July) and typhoon season (from August to October) are studied separately. The results show that the precipitation trend varies from east to west. There is a positive trend in the east and a negative one in the west. The largest part of Zhejiang Province shows a positive trend in heavy precipitation and the most significant upward trend is detected in Dinghai with 3.4?mm/year for precipitation on very wet days. Although the upward trend of extreme precipitation is not prevailing, the range of increase in specific areas is apparent, like Dinghai with 1.3?mm/year. Precipitation intensity exhibits an upward trend in most areas and a typical upward trend can be found in Dachendao, Tianmushan, and Yuhuan with 0.04, 0.02, and 0.05?mm/year respectively. Precipitation intensity in both plum and typhoon seasons has increased too, especially for the coastal stations.     

Uncertainty analysis in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events

With the increase of both magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events such as drought and flooding, the significance of adequately modeling hydrological extreme events is fully recognized. Estimation of extreme rainfall/flood for various return periods is of prime importance for hydrological design or risk assessment. However, due to knowledge and data limitation, uncertainty involved in extrapolating beyond available data is huge. In this paper, different sources of uncertainty in statistical modeling of extreme hydrological events are studied in a systematic way. This is done by focusing on several key uncertainty sources using three different case studies. The chosen case studies highlight a number of projects where there have been questions regarding the uncertainty in extreme rainfall/flood estimation. The results show that the uncertainty originated from the methodology is the largest and could be >40% for a return period of 200 years, while the uncertainty caused by ignoring the dependence among multiple hydrological variables seems the smallest. In the end, it is highly recommended that uncertainty in modeling extreme hydrological events be fully recognized and incorporated into a formal hydrological extreme analysis.     

基于混合像元分解的辽河口滨海湿地分类

滨海湿地高精度的地物分类可以为湿地监测与保护提供数据支持和决策依据。以辽河口湿地为研究对象,以Landsat8 OLI多光谱影像为数据源,结合研究区域实际地物情况,采用像元纯度指数和均值波谱法确定端元光谱,并利用全约束最小二乘混合像元技术和决策树技术制定分类规则,最后将研究区域分为芦苇、翅碱蓬、水稻、滩涂、水体(海水、虾池水、河水等)和人工建筑(包括路面、人工设施、房屋等)六大类。结果表明:该算法分类精度高于90%,结合目视判读与野外实地调查,发现分类结果符合实际地物情况。     

Study on the pattern and mode of vertical crustal deformation during the seismogenic process of intraplate strong earthquakes

Ｓｔｕｄｙｏｎｔｈｅｐａｔｔｅｒｎａｎｄｍｏｄｅｏｆｖｅｒｔｉｃａｌｃｒｕｓｔａｌｄｅｆｏｒｍａｔｉｏｎｄｕｒｉｎｇｔｈｅｓｅｉｓｍｏｇｅｎｉｃｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｏｆｉｎｔｒａｐｌａｔｅｓｔｒｏｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ杨国华，桂昆长，巩曰沐，杨春花，韩...     

上海市地下水应急水源地规划战略研究

在综合调查分析城市经济发展、城市供水现状及存在的供水隐患等基础上,结合地理位置、城市规划功能区和发展方向,圈定了大型、中型地下水应急水源地数量及布局,结合地下水环境容量评价成果制订了应急开采方案,并对各水源地应急开采方案条件下可能引发的环境地质问题进行了预测评估,为城市应急水源地建设提供了决策依据。     

Evaluating historical simulations of CMIP5 GCMs for key climatic variables in Zhejiang Province,China

Assessing the regional impact of climate change on agriculture, hydrology, and forests is vital for sustainable management. Trustworthy projections of climate change are needed to support these assessments. In this paper, 18 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated for their ability to simulate regional climate change in Zhejiang Province, Southeast China. Simple graphical approaches and three indices are used to evaluate the performance of six key climatic variables during simulations from 1971 to 2000. These variables include maximum and minimum air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, solar radiation, and relative humidity. These variables are of great importance to researchers and decision makers in climate change impact studies and developing adaptation strategies. This study found that most GCMs failed to reproduce the observed spatial patterns, due to insufficient resolution. However, the seasonal variations of the six variables are simulated well by most GCMs. Maximum and minimum air temperatures are simulated well on monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales. Solar radiation is reasonably simulated on monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales. Compared to air temperature and solar radiation, it was found that precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity can only be simulated well at seasonal and yearly scales. Wind speed was the variable with the poorest simulation results across all GCMs.