Predictability of Interannual Variability in the Kuroshio Transport South of Japan Based on Wind Stress Data over the North Pacific

It is expected that a roughly two-year forecast of the Kuroshio transport variation can be made from a past record of wind stress data over the ocean, since it takes nearly ten years for the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave to traverse the entire basin in the midlatitude North Pacific (∼30°N). We therefore investigated the predictability using an ocean general circulation model driven by the wind stress data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. Referring to a hindcast experiment as the control run, we carried out fifteen forecast experiments, the initial conditions of which are taken from the hindcast experiment at intervals of two years during the period from the end of 1969 to the end of 1997. Each of the forecast experiments is driven only by wind stress in the year preceding each experiment. The forecasted Kuroshio transport anomaly south of Japan agrees better with the hindcasted one during the first two years of the forecast in most cases. In some cases, however, significant disagreements occur, most of which are likely due to larger unpredictable variations caused by wind stress anomalies near Japan. At the end of forecast year 2, the anomaly correlation coefficient is about 0.7, and rms of the forecast error is smaller than rms of the hindcasted anomaly. These results indicate that the prediction of the interannual variability in the Kuroshio transport could be made two years in advance at a statistically significant level. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Influence of Current Width Variation on the Annual Mean Transport of the East Sakhalin Current: A Simple Model

Recent observations suggest that the annual mean southward transport of the East Sakhalin Current (ESC) is significantly larger than the annual mean Sverdrup transport. Motivated by this observational result, transport of a western boundary current has been investigated using a simple numerical model with a western slope. This transport is defined as the instantaneous barotropic transport integrated from the western boundary to the offshore point where the barotropic velocity vanishes. The model, forced by seasonally varying wind stress, exhibits an annual mean of the western boundary current transport that is larger than that of the Sverdrup transport, as observed. The southward transport from October to March in the model nearly equals the instantaneous Sverdrup transport, while the southward transport from April to September decreases slowly. Although the Sverdrup transport in July vanishes, the southward transport in summer nearly maintains the annual mean Sverdrup transport, because the barotropic Rossby wave cannot intrude on the western slope. This summer transport causes the larger annual mean. Although there are some uncertainties in the estimation of the Sverdrup transport in the Sea of Okhotsk, the seasonal variation of the southward transport in the model is qualitatively similar to the observations.     

Kuroshio extension variability explored through assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data into a quasi-geostrophic model

Mesoscale features in the eastward extension of the Kuroshio were investigated using assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) data into a three-layer quasi-geostrophic model. The T/P data exhibited an elongated state of the southern recirculation gyre in 1993–95 and 1997, between whose two periods the gyre had a contracted state in 1995–96. A few stationary eddies were located in the southern gyre during the contracted state. The baroclinic instability, which was indicated by the phase shift from the uppermost-to the lowest-layer anomalies toward the downstream side, was evident near the Kuroshio Extension (KE) path. Since the instability never appeared in the artificial model without bottom topography, the topographic barrier for the eastward flow in the lowest layer was a necessary condition for the instability. The instability synchronized with the transition in the western region of the KE axis from the elongated to the contracted states. This evolution was interpreted as if the baroclinic instability played some part in the KE states and was a trigger for the transition from the elongated to the contracted states.     

State Estimation of the North Pacific Ocean by a Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Experiment

A four-dimensional variational data assimilation system has been applied to an experiment to describe the dynamic state of the North Pacific Ocean. A synthesis of available observational records and a sophisticated ocean general circulation model produces a dynamically consistent dataset, which, in contrast to the nudging approach, provides realistic features of the seasonally-varying ocean circulation with no artificial sources/sinks for temperature and salinity fields. This new dataset enables us to estimate heat and water mass transports in addition to the qualification of water mass formation and movement processes. A sensitivity experiment on our assimilation system reveals that the origin of the North Pacific Intermediate Water can be traced back to the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea in the subarctic region and to the subtropical Kuroshio region further south. These results demonstrate that our data assimilation system is a very powerful tool for the identification and characterization of ocean variabilities and for our understanding of the dynamic state of ocean circulation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Biogenic Silica Record in Lake Biwa of Central Japan over the Past 145,000 Years

The record of the biogenic silica flux (BSF, g cm⁻²(10³yr)⁻¹) in Lake Biwa reflects changes in diatom productivity in the lake and provides information regarding changes in paleoclimatic conditions. The BSF record of Lake Biwa demonstrates five periods over the past ca. 145,000 yr when the BSF values were significantly greater than 7.5 g cm⁻²(10³yr)⁻¹, and five intervals when they were lower. The data imply that paleoclimatic conditions were warmer and wetter from ca. 123,000 to 115,000, 103,000 to 95,000, 88,000 to 72,000, 57,000 to 32,000 yr B.P., and around ca. 6000 yr B.P. when the BSF values were greater, and relatively dry and cold from ca. 141,000 to 123,000 yr B.P. and during intervals between two of the five warm and wet episodes when the BSF values were lower. Time series of the BSF record can be correlated with the record of biogenic silica content in Lake Baikal and the marine oxygen isotope stages 1 through 6. Furthermore, the BSF values varied with much higher amplitude during the last interglaciation than during the last glaciation, probably implying that the diatom productivity in Lake Biwa was likewise more variable and had a larger range under interglacial conditions than under glacial conditions.     

The first absolute gravity measurements in Indonesia

For the purposes of the calibration of the superconducting gravimeter (SG) in Bandung and the establishment of the absolute gravity (AG) points, we carried out AG measurements for the first time in Indonesia in November 2002. The measurements in Bandung were conducted between November 15th and 20th by means of a FG5 (#210), and 14,520 effective drops were obtained. The gravity value newly determined at the AG point in Bandung is 977976701.2 μgal (1 μgal = 10⁻⁸ ms⁻²) and the scale factor for the SG is −52.22 μgal/V. We also established another AG point in Yogyakarta near Merapi volcano and carried out AG measurements in Yogyakarta between November 22nd and 26th. The gravity value determined for this station is 978203093.5 μgal.     

Contribution of a pathway through the Arctic Ocean to the re cent reduction in the ice cover

The sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean has been reducing and hit the low record in the summer of 2007. The anomaly was extremely large in the Pacific sector. The sea level height in the Bering Sea vs. the Greenland Sea has been analyzed and compared with the current meter data through the Bering Strait. A recent peak existed as a consequence of atmospheric circulation and is considered to contribute to inflow of the Pacific Water into the Arctic Basin. The timing of the Pacific Water inflow matched with the sea ice reduction in the Pacific sector and suggests a significant increase in heat flux. This component should be included in the model prediction for answering the question when the Arctic sea ice becomes a seasonal ice cover.     

Roles of Biogeochemical Processes in the Oceanic Carbon Cycle Described with a Simple Coupled Physical-Biogeochemical Model

To evaluate the contribution of biogeochemical processes to the oceanic carbon cycle and to calculate the ratio of calcium carbonate to organic carbon downward export, we have incorporated biological and alkalinity pumps in the yoked high-latitude exchange/interior diffusion-advection (YOLDA) model. The biogeochemical processes are represented by four parameters. The values of the parameters are tuned so that the model can reproduce the observed phosphate and alkalinity distributions in each oceanic region. The sensitivity of the model to the biogeochemical parameters shows that biological production rates in the euphotic zone and decomposition depths of particulate matters significantly influence horizontal and vertical distributions of biogeochemical substances. The modeled vertical fluxes of particulate organic phosphorus and calcium carbonate are converted to vertical carbon fluxes by the biological pump and the alkalinity pump, respectively. The downward carbon flux from the surface layer to the deep layer in the entire region is estimated to be 3.36 PgC/yr, which consists of 2.93 PgC/yr from the biological pump and 0.43 PgC/yr from the alkalinity pump, which is consistent with previous studies. The modeled rain ratio is higher with depth and higher in the Pacific and Indian Oceans than in the Atlantic Ocean. The global rain ratio at the surface layer is calculated to be 0.14 to 0.15. This value lies between the lower and higher ends of the previous estimates, which range widely from 0.05 to 0.25. This study indicates that the rain ratio is unlikely to be higher than 0.15, at least in the surface waters.     

Effects of mass source/sink at the western boundary on the wind-driven gyres: Implications for the ventilation of the north pacific intermediate layer through convection in the Okhotsk Sea and tidal mixing at the Kuril Straits

A steady quasi-geostrophic 2.5-layer model, forced by both Ekman pumping and a mass source/sink situated at the western boundary has been constructed to investigate the effect of diapycnal transport due to convection in the Okhotsk Sea and tidal mixing at the Kuril Straits on the intermediate layer in the North Pacific. The model illustrates a combined effect of the wind-driven and mass-driven circulations. First, net mass input induces a “barotropic” mode inter-gyre flow along the western boundary through the dynamical influence of Kelvin waves. This flow creates characteristic curves (geostrophic contours) that facilitate inter-gyre communication through the western boundary layer from the location of the mass source to the subtropical gyre. Due to the effect of wind-driven circulation, the offshore part turns eastward into the interior, encircles the outer rim of the region (which would otherwise be the pool region in the absence of mass input), and then encounters the western boundary. Eventually, the water fed into the lower layer flows mostly along this path and later flows away to the equatorial region. Conversely, in the upper layer, water is fed from the equator to the subtropics, and to the subpolar interior region through the western boundary current. The water then circulates along the outer rim and is absorbed into the mass sink. The model is controlled mainly by three nondimensional parameters: (1) the ratio of net mass input rate to the maximum Sverdrup transport (Q/T _Sv ^max ), which affects the inter-gyre communication by altering the paths of geostrophic contours, (2) the ratio of a mass input rate into the lower layer to that in total (Q ₂/Q), which controls the vertical structure of the inter-gyre flow, and (3) the measure of the wind forcing effect relative to the β effect, which determines the horizontal extent of the area influenced by the mass input. The other parameter regimes with respect to Q/T _Sv ^max and Q ₂/Q are also presented.