井筒及围岩应力,应变观测方法研究

采用最新研制的岩体应力、应变匹配传感器对西安立井煤柱开采引起的井筒附加应力特别是对井筒穿过断层附近产生的附加应力进行了较系统的观测，并对观测结果进行了分析和总结。     

下庄铀矿田成矿热液的水源研究

在分析下庄铀矿田成矿地质背景的基础上，根据包体水氢、氧同位素组成和水－岩相互作用原理对该矿田成矿热液的水源进行了详细探讨。其结果表明，下庄铀成矿热液的氢、氧同位素组成δ１８Ｏ＝＋６．９０‰～－９．８０‰（ＳＭＯＷ）、δＤ＝－３０‰～－８５‰（ＳＭＯＷ）位于已发生氧漂移的大气降水同位素组成范围。水－岩同位素交换后，岩石的δ１８Ｏ值明显降低，显示出与岩石相互作用的古地下水具有相当低的δ１８Ｏ值。不同水－岩比值条件下同位素交换结果证明下庄成矿古水热系统具有比较充足的水源，大气降水与岩石交换后热液的δ１８Ｏ计算（－８．２６‰～＋１．５３‰）与成矿期热液的δ１８Ｏ值（－６．５４‰～＋１．４３‰）相吻合。证据表明下庄铀矿田成矿热液的水源主要来自大气降水。     

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

北京市土壤地质环境监测工作的实践与思考

开展北京市土壤地质环境的长期监测,对于政府管理部门及时掌握土壤环境质量状况,制定相应的防治措施具有重要的意义.北京市土壤地质环境监测网建成后,连续6年的监测结果表明:全市区域土壤重金属元素环境质量整体优良,存在点状有机污染;典型工矿区、农业种植区、重要水源地等重点监测区土壤环境质量总体良好,局部存在安全风险.监测网包括区域监测和重点监测两个层次;监测范围已覆盖全市域;区域监测周期3年,重点监测周期1年;形成了以化学指标为主的监测指标体系;监测方法包括野外样品采集、样品加工处理、数据处理及图件编制、无机元素(指标)和有机物分布特征分析及对比、结果评价等.针对监测工作中存在的样品代表性问题、分析测试问题、重点工作区问题和评价标准统一问题,提出了应加强方法技术和质量监控体系研究;对重点监测区的选取和工作方法进行深入探讨;在评价规范化、技术方法创新方面进行尝试等思路.     

陆面过程模式BCC_AVIM中地表覆盖数据现状

地表覆盖是陆面和气候模式中的一个重要基础数据。以陆面过程模式BCC_AVIM为例,介绍模式中的地表覆盖数据变量、数据分辨率、不同类型数据的来源,重点比较分类方法差异巨大且类型众多的植被覆盖。综述比较了国际和国内常用的几套全球地表覆盖数据的来源、分类系统和分类方法以及空间分辨率,根据陆面过程模式的地表覆盖数据需求,确定不同全球土地覆盖数据在模式中的应用方法,讨论分析了全球地表覆盖产品在模式应用中存在的差距,提出不同遥感数据产品之间一致性较差的可能解决方案,探讨遥感数据产品在模式中应用的可能方式,以期更好地发挥全球地表覆盖数据产品的作用。     

Impacts of SIS and CICE as Sea Ice Components in BCC_CSM on the Simulation of the Arctic Climate

Sea ice is a sensitive indicator of climate change and an important component of climate system models. The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model 5.0(CICE5.0) was introduced to the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM) as a new alternative to the Sea Ice Simulator(SIS). The principal purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of these two sea ice components on simulations of basic Arctic sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean states. Two sets of experiments were conducted with the same configurations except for the sea ice component used, i.e., SIS and CICE. The distributions of sea ice concentration and thickness reproduced by the CICE simulations in both March and September were closer to actual observations than those reproduced by SIS simulations, which presented a very thin sea ice cover in September. Changes in sea ice conditions also brought about corresponding modifications to the atmosphere and ocean circulation. CICE simulations showed higher agreement with the reference datasets than did SIS simulations for surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and sea surface temperature in most parts of the Arctic Ocean. More importantly, compared with simulations with SIS, BCC_CSM with CICE revealed stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC), which is more consistent with actual observations. Thus, CICE shows better performance than SIS in BCC_ CSM. However, both components demonstrate a number of common weaknesses, such as overestimation of the sea ice cover in winter, especially in the Nordic Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk. Additional studies and improvements are necessary to develop these components further.     

赣州市土地利用动态变化及其驱动因子分析

将赣州市作为研究对象,选取2000、2004、2010、2014和2017年5期Landsat遥感影像,利用RS和GIS技术,采用人机交互解译辅助实地考察方式提取赣州市2000—2017年土地利用类型图并分析土地利用变化特征;结合2000—2017年赣州市社会经济影响指标,运用主成分分析法分析得到赣州市土地利用变化的驱...     

Multi-year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ: Sensitivity Study

A modified version of the NCAR/RegCM2 has been developed at the National Climate Center (NCC), China Meteorological Administration, through a series of sensitivity experiments and multi-year simulations and hindcasts, with a special emphasis on the adequate choice of physical parameterization schemes suitable for the East Asian monsoon climate. This regional climate model is nested with the NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM to make an experimental seasonal prediction for China and East Asia. The four-year (2001 to 2004) prediction results are encouraging. This paper is the first part of a two-part paper, and it mainly describes the sensitivity study of the physical process parameterization represented in the model. The systematic errors produced by the different physical parameterization schemes such as the land surface processes, convective precipitation, cloud-radiation transfer process, boundary layer process and large-scale terrain features have been identified based on multi-year and extreme flooding event simulations. A number of comparative experiments has shown that the mass flux scheme (MFS) and Betts-Miller scheme (BM) for convective precipitation, the LPMI (land surface process model I) and LPMII (land surface process model Ⅱ) for the land surface process, the CCM3 radiation transfer scheme for cloud-radiation transfer processes, the TKE (turbulent kinetic energy) scheme for the boundary layer processes and the topography treatment schemes for the Tibetan Plateau are suitable for simulations and prediction of the East Asia monsoon climate in rainy seasons. Based on the above sensitivity study, a modified version of the RegCM2 (RegCM_NCC) has been set up for climate simulations and seasonal predictions.     

艾比湖原核微生物菌群结构演变与环境因子关系分析

用非培养法获得新疆维吾尔自治区艾比湖湖底沉积物原核微生物菌群组成,并与已有盐湖原核微生物菌群数据进行比对,分析湖泊由淡水湖向盐湖演替过程中原核微生物群落结构变化规律。实验获得艾比湖原核微生物16S rRNA基因序列,并从NCBI数据库下载赛里木湖、柴窝堡湖和顿巴斯他乌盐湖3个湖泊的非培养原核微生物16S rRNA基因序列数据。用不同盐湖细菌和古菌16S rRNA序列信息构建系统发育树并与其理化指标进行典型性相关分析。同源比对及聚类结果显示,艾比湖湖底沉积物中细菌包括4个门,拟杆菌门(Bacteroidetes)占克隆文库的64%,变形菌门(Proteobacteria)占9.4%,厚壁菌门(Firmicutes)占3.4%,放线菌门(Actinobacteria)占2.6%,此外含有未分类类群20.6%。古菌含有两个门,广古菌门(Euryarchaeota,98.3%)和盐纳古菌门(Nanohaloarchaeota,1.7%)。不同盐湖系统发育树结果显示,随盐度增加,盐湖细菌从变形菌门向拟杆菌门演替;古菌从奇古菌门和泉古菌门向广古菌门和盐纳古菌门演替。RDA结果显示,Na⁺、Cl-、SO₄2-和矿化度对盐湖原核微生物多样性结构起到决定性的作用,K⁺、Mg²⁺和Ca²⁺对艾比湖菌群结构影响作用最为显著。原核微生物群落会随着湖水盐浓度的增加和盐湖化学成分的不同而发生演替。