It’s not just the statistical model. A comment on Seo (2013)

A recent paper in this journal argues that the choice of statistical model is responsible for the divergence in damage estimates of climate change on US agriculture. We provide five arguments why we believe this assertion is misguided.     

Alternative Validation of a LC-MS/MS-Multi-Method for Pesticides in Drinking Water

The development of instrumental analytics such as the LC-MS/MS has made it possible to quickly determine many component concentrations in a single chromatogram. However, the validation of such multi-methods needs new strategies for robustness and optimization. Statistical execution of analytical tests is one tool that can be utilized to meet this requirement. A Central Composite Design (CCD) was utilized for the validation of an LC-MS/MS multi-method for 84 analytes. The experimental design includes six design variables and two non-design variables (response variables). Concentration, ionization temperature, dwell time, gradient, flow (of eluent), and spraying/curtain gas (continuous design variables) were varied on five different levels; the whole design encompassed 91 runs. To investigate the robustness of a LC-MS/MS method both peak sensitivity and chromatographic separation had to be verified. Therefore, two non-design variables were necessary. The distribution of the peaks over analysis time was applied to describe the quality of the chromatographic separation. The sensitivity was described with the signal to noise ratio (S/N). The evaluation of the measured data was accomplished with the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and the Response Surface Methodology (RSM). Three main effects (concentration, ionization temperature, dwell time) and no significant interaction effect were found for the response variable “S/N”. The variables of concentration, ionization temperature, and dwell time had no significant effects for the response variable “S/N”. The ANOVA of the response variable chromatographic separation abandoned no significant effects as well. Therefore, robustness of the method can be guaranteed for all non significant design variables.     

Comparison of the SFI peculiar velocities with the IRAS 1.2-Jy gravity field

We present a comparison between the peculiar velocity fields measured from a recently completed l -band Tully–Fisher survey of field spirals (SFI) and that derived from the IRAS 1.2-Jy redshift survey galaxy distribution. The analysis is based on the expansion of these data in redshift space using smooth orthonormal functions, and is performed using low- and high-resolution expansions, with an effective smoothing scale which increases almost linearly with redshift. The effective smoothing scales at 3000 km s⁻¹ are 1500 and 1000 km s⁻¹ for the low- and high-resolution filters. The agreement between the high- and low-resolution SFI velocity maps is excellent. The general features in the filtered SFI and IRAS velocity fields agree remarkably well within 6000 km s⁻¹. This good agreement between the fields allows us to determine the parameter β = Ω^0.6 / b , where Ω is the cosmological density parameter, and b is the linear biasing factor. From a likelihood analysis on the SFI and IRAS modes we find that β = 0.6 ± 0.1, independently of the resolution of the modal expansion. For this value of β, the residual fields for the two filters show no systematic variations within 6000 km s⁻¹. Most remarkable is the lack of any coherent, redshift-dependent dipole flow in the residual field.     

Dynamics of an active rock glacier (Ötztal Alps, Austria)

The rock glacier Innere Ölgrube, located in a small side valley of the Kauner Valley (Ötztal Alps, Austria), consists of two separate, tongue-shaped rock glaciers lying next to each other. Investigations indicate that both rock glaciers contain a core of massive ice. During winter, the temperature at the base of the snow cover (BTS) is significantly lower at the active rock glacier than on permafrost-free ground adjacent to the rock glacier. Discharge is characterized by strong seasonal and diurnal variations, and is strongly controlled by the local weather conditions. Water temperature of the rock glacier springs remains constantly low, mostly below 1°C during the whole melt season. The morphology of the rock glaciers and the presence of meltwater lakes in their rooting zones as well as the high surface flow velocities of >1 m/yr point to a glacial origin. The northern rock glacier, which is bounded by lateral moraines, evolved from the debris-covered tongue of a small glacier of the Little Ice Age with its last highstand around A.D. 1850. Due to the global warming in the following decades, the upper parts of the steep and debris-free ice glacier melted, whereas the debris-covered glacier tongue transformed into an active rock glacier. Due to this evolution and due to the downslope movement, the northern rock glacier, although still active, at present is cut off from its ice and debris supply. The southern rock glacier has developed approximately during the same period from a debris-covered cirque glacier at the foot of the Wannetspitze massif.     

The water crisis in the gaza strip: prospects for resolution

Israel and the Palestinian Authority share the southern Mediterranean coastal aquifer. Long-term overexploitation in the Gaza Strip has resulted in a decreasing water table, accompanied by the degradation of its water quality. Due to high levels of salinity and nitrate and boron pollution, most of the ground water is inadequate for both domestic and agricultural consumption. The rapid rate of population growth in the Gaza Strip and dependence upon ground water as a single water source present a serious challenge for future political stability and economic development. Here, we integrate the results of geochemical studies and numerical modeling to postulate different management scenarios for joint management between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The chemical and isotopic data show that most of the salinity phenomena in the Gaza Strip are derived from the natural flow of saline ground water from Israel toward the Gaza Strip. As a result, the southern coastal aquifer does not resemble a classic "upstream-downstream" dispute because Israel's pumping of the saline ground water reduces the salinization rates of ground water in the Gaza Strip. Simulation of different pumping scenarios using a monolayer, hydrodynamic, two-dimensional model (MARTHE) confirms the hypothesis that increasing pumping along the Gaza Strip border combined with a moderate reduction of pumping within the Gaza Strip would improve ground water quality within the Gaza Strip. We find that pumping the saline ground water for a source of reverse-osmosis desalination and then supplying the desalinated water to the Gaza Strip should be an essential component of a future joint management strategy between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.     

B and Li isotopes as intrinsic tracers for injection tests in aquifer storage and recovery systems

Boron and Li isotopes have been tested as environmental tracers of treated sewage injected into a sandy aquifer (Shafdan reclamation project, Israel). During a 38 days injection test in a newly dug injection well, a conservative artificial tracer (Br⁻) was monitored together with δ¹¹B and δ⁷Li in the injectate, in the unsaturated soil zone (porous cup) and an observation well in the aquifer. In spite of B and Li concentrations in the injectate close to background values, significant shifts of the isotope signatures could be observed over the duration of the injection test. Boron isotope ratios show a breakthrough curve delayed with respect to Br⁻ breakthrough due to some reversible sorption on the aquifer material. No isotope fractionation was observed in the unsaturated or the saturated zone so that B isotopes can be considered as conservative in the investigated part of the aquifer system. Lithium isotopes are strongly fractionated, probably due to sorption processes. Lithium concentrations point to a Li sink in the system, δ⁷Li values vary strongly with a tendency of ⁷Li depletion in the liquid phase over the duration of the experiment. This is opposite to the expected preferential sorption of ⁶Li onto clay minerals. Boron isotopes reveals a valuable tracer of artificial recharge of freshwaters derived from treated sewage, both for short term tracer tests and for long-term monitoring of artificial recharge, even if in aquifers with higher clay contents, sorption-linked isotope fractionation cannot be excluded. More data are needed on Li isotope fractionation in natural groundwater systems to assess the potential of this tracer as monitoring tool.     

Active Galactic Nuclei

F11 Jets, supernovae, gammabursts – more light for theory? F35 A Direct Comparison of the QSO Samples from VPMS and SDSS F36 Gravitational Microlensing Simulations and Ensemble Broad‐Band Variability of the QSOs from VPMS F42 Luminosity function of low redshift quasars F43 Star Formation around Active Galactic Nuclei – Results from near infrared observations F58 High‐Redshift Quasars as Probes of Early Star Formation F66 On the dust emission of Seyfert nuclei F72 Propagation of Very Light MHD Jets F78 Giant Outflows in MassiveHigh‐z Radio Galaxies: Direct Evidence for AGNFeedback in the Early Universe F89 Lowfrequency mapping of ‘normal’ FR II radio galaxies: Resolving the puzzle of X‐shaped radio sources F90 Nature of X‐shaped radio sources: A statistical approach F100 Cosmological growth of Supermassive Black Holes: constraints on kinetic and radiative energy feedback F107 Molecular Tori in AGN F136 Electron‐Ion Recombination Rate Coefficients of Iron M‐Shell Ions for X‐Ray Astronomy F139 Hydrodynamic models of obscuring tori F145 The unique BL Lac Object S5 0716+714 F158 On the Cluster Environment of the BL Lac Object OJ 287 F179 The circumnuclear dust in nearby AGN resolved by mid‐infrared interferometry F184 NIR‐imaging of SDSS BL Lac objects F190 Blazar Observations in the TeV energy range with the MAGIC Telescope F198 Gas Inflow Rates in Nearby AGN Galaxies F202 Two zone SSC model for blazar jets F215 Long‐termVHE γ ‐ray monitoring of bright blazars with a dedicated telescope F218 Long termmonitoring of bright TeV Blazars with the MAGIC telescope F220 Fifteen Blazars in Very‐High Energy Gamma Rays: A Comparative Study F229 Numerical calculation of blazar spectra. Application to 1 ES 1218+30.4 F230 Blazar spectral energy distributions corrected for gamma ray attenuation F240 Observation of PG 1553+113 with the MAGIC Telescope F243 VHE Gamma‐Ray Flare of PKS2155‐304 detected by the MAGIC telescope F245 Observations of 3C279 with the MAGIC Telescope F258 Diffraction limited near infrared imaging spectroscopy of the NLR of NGC4151