What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

The northern Patagonia Somuncura plateau basalts: a product of slab‐induced,shallow asthenospheric upwelling?

The Meseta de Somuncura forms the largest basaltic plateau (20 000 km²) of southern Argentina (extra-Andean domain). Most of these tholeiitic to alkaline rocks were extruded at ˜ 25 Ma (late Oligocene). The absence of rifting–thinning processes, plume activity, or slab-window phenomena leaves only one major possibility for the generation of Somuncura: asthenospheric ('OIB-like') corner flow leading to a transient thermal anomaly above the subducting plate. It is suggested herein that the intake of hot asthenosphere was forced into a favourable topography (concave-up) of the subducting plate, when a major plate reorganization event (Farallon to Nazca) was taking place in late Oligocene to early Miocene time. The fast and vigorous intake of asthenosphere would have been induced by slab roll-back, leading to decoupling of the subducting plate. The Somuncura volcanic episode can be regarded as a marker of the passage from the extremely oblique subduction of Farallon, to the birth of the Nazca plate and roughly perpendicular convergence between South America and Nazca.     

Merging of low-mass systems and the origin of the fundamental plane

We present the preliminary results of a study of how small stellar systems merge to form larger ones. As we display the families of galaxies in the μ_e - R_e plane (effective surface brightness versus effective radius) we realize that different morphological types occupy different loci, evidencing the different physical mechanisms operating in each family. As proposed by Capaccioli et al. (1992) this diagram is the logical equivalent of the HR diagram for stars. Here we take some initial steps in understanding of how we can establish the evolutionary tracks, solely due to dynamical processes, in the μ_e - R_e plane, ultimately making a dwarf elliptical to turn into a normal elliptical galaxy. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Transient‐state groundwater flow in various geometries with wells at arbitrary positions: analytical methods

We have developed a method for analytically solving the porous medium flow equation in many different geometries for horizontal (two‐dimensional), homogeneous and isotropic aquifers containing impermeable boundaries and any number of pumping or injection wells located at arbitrary positions within the system. Solutions and results are presented for rectangular and circular aquifers but the method presented here is easily extendible to many geometries. Results are also presented for systems where constant head boundary conditions can be emulated internal to the aquifer boundary. Recommendations for extensions of the present work are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reliability assessment of granular filters in embankment dams

Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Large-scale structure in the NIR-selected MUNICS survey

The Munich Near-IR Cluster Survey (MUNICS) is a wide-area, medium-deep, photometric survey selected in the K' band. The project's main scientific aims are the identification of galaxy clusters up to redshifts of unity and the selection of a large sample of field early-type galaxies up to z < 1.5 for evolutionary studies. We created a Large Scale Structure catalog, using a new structure finding technique specialized for photometric datasets, that we developed on the basis of a friends-of-friends algorithm. We tested the plausibility of the resulting galaxy group and cluster catalog with the help of Color-Magnitude Diagrams (CMD), as well as a likelihood- and Voronoi-approach. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cosmological tensor perturbations in brane world models

We discuss the problems faced in trying to deduce the evolution of cosmological perturbations in brane-world models. There are two natural ways to formulate the problem: one which makes the equations of motion simple and the other which makes the boundary condition simple. Unfortunately the problem is difficult to solve, even numerically, in either formalism. We present a more phenomenological approach which, while it does not solve the problem for any given model, illustrates some generic features one might expect to see in the tensor part of the cosmic microwave background power spectrum. We find that the observed scale invariance of the cosmic microwave background provides bounds on brane world models. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Dynamical implications of Jupiter's tropospheric ammonia abundance

Groundbased radio observations indicate that Jupiter's ammonia is globally depleted from 0.6 bars to at least 4-6 bars relative to the deep abundance of ∼3 times solar, a fact that has so far defied explanation. The observations also indicate that (i) the depletion is greater in belts than zones, and (ii) the greatest depletion occurs within Jupiter's local 5-μm hot spots, which have recently been detected at radio wavelengths. Here, we first show that both the global depletion and its belt-zone variation can be explained by a simple model for the interaction of moist convection with Jupiter's cloud-layer circulation. If the global depletion is dynamical in origin, then important endmember models for the belt-zone circulation can be ruled out. Next, we show that the radio observations of Jupiter's 5-μm hot spots imply that the equatorial wave inferred to cause hot spots induces vertical parcel oscillation of a factor of ∼2 in pressure near the 2-bar level, which places important constraints on hot-spot dynamics. Finally, using spatially resolved radio maps, we demonstrate that low-latitude features exceeding ∼4000 km diameter, such as the equatorial plumes and large vortices, are also depleted in ammonia from 0.6 bars to at least 2 bars relative to the deep abundance of 3 times solar. If any low-latitude features exist that contain 3-times-solar ammonia up to the 0.6-bar ammonia condensation level, they must have diameters less than ∼4000 km.     

Monitoring the Microarcsecond Quasar J1819+3845

We present the results of a year-long monitoring campaign on J1819+3845.We interpret the results of this WSRT campaign to infer critical source parameters such as source lifetime and structure on tens of microarcseconds. The long lifetime of the source at such high brightness temperatures requires continuous energy injection or exotic emission processes. We have previously interpreted the extreme scintillation ofJ1819+3845 as due to a relatively nearby (∼ 20 pc) scattering screen. We show this screen has a velocity w.r.t. the LSR of ∼ 25 kms^-1, as measured by the changing scintillation properties throughout the year: the `velocity parallax'. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.