Prediction of the occurrence of Related Strong Earthquakes in Italy

In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicenter of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the world, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. To date it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict.The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, often the series of strong earthquakes is relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such a situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely preliminary recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence.     

Deficit of Large Aftershocks as an Indicator of Afterslip at the Sources of Earthquakes in Subduction Zones

Doklady Earth Sciences - A relative decrease in the fraction of large aftershocks in the first days after earthquakes in subduction zones is demonstrated, and a connection of this phenomenon with...     

Impact of Ice Melting on Oceanographic and Hydrobiological Characteristics of Surface Waters in the Powell Basin,Weddell Sea,in January–February 2020

Oceanology - The variability of sea ice in the Weddell Sea, along with melting of glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula and ice shelves, determines the volumes of melt water entering the water area,...     

Quantitative and Production Characteristics of Phytoplankton in the Northern Part of the Weddell Sea in Summer

Oceanology - The spatial distribution of the main parameters of primary productivity is described for the northern part of the Weddell Sea in the Antarctic summer of 2020. The integral...     

Mapping of Interplate Coupling in the Kamchatka Subduction Zone from Variations in the Earthquake Size Distribution

Doklady Earth Sciences - The geometry of supposed coupling zones in the Kamchatka subduction zone is determined by the earthquake size distribution based on ealier revealed relationship between its...     

Modelling of Block-structure Dynamics: Parametric Study for Vrancea

—The dependence of synthetic earthquake catalog obtained by numerical modelling of block-structure dynamics for the Vrancea (Romania) seismoactive region on values of the model parameters is studied. The features of the synthetic seismicity, such as the spatial distribution of epicentres, the level of seismic activity, the relative activity of the different faults, are considered as functions of the directions of motions of the different blocks of the structure. The likelihood of the features of the synthetic and of the real seismicity could be used as criterion for the reconstruction of the direction of the tectonic motions.     

Size Fractionation of Trace Elements in a Seasonally Stratified Boreal Lake: Control of Organic Matter and Iron Colloids

The colloidal distribution and size fractionation of organic carbon and trace elements were studied in a seasonally stratified, organic-rich boreal lake, Lake Maselga, located in the European subarctic zone (NW Russia, Arkhangelsk region). This study took place over the course of 5?years in winter (glacial) and summer periods and during the spring and autumn overturn. A newly developed in situ dialysis technique (1, 10, and 50?kDa) and traditional frontal filtration and ultrafiltration (20, 10, 5, 0.22, and 0.025???m) were used to assess element concentrations at different depths. No significant changes in element concentrations occurred during filtration through sub-colloidal pore-size membranes (20?C0.22???m), suggesting a negligible amount of particulate Fe, OC, and associated trace metals. Large colloids (0.025?C0.22???m) were found to be the main carriers of poorly soluble elements (Fe, Al, Ti, Zr, REEs, Th, and U) during the summer and winter stratification. There was also a clear change in the vertical pattern of the percentage of colloidal Al, Ti, V, Cr, Fe, and Ni during different seasons, and the greatest proportion of colloidal forms was observed during the spring and autumn overturn. This pattern is most likely linked to the dominance of soil (allochthonous) organic carbon, which complexes with trace metals during these periods. During the summer seasons, autochthonous production of small exometabolites or photodegradation increases the concentration of the low-molecular weight fractions (<1?kDa) that dominate the speciation of divalent heavy metals in surface horizons. The colloidal status of As (30?C60%), which was documented in different seasons along the full depth of the water column, is most likely linked to the presence of organic complexes. The overall results of this study suggest that changes in the colloidal speciation of trace elements with depth in different seasons depend on changes in the redox conditions, the input of soil OM, the biodegradation of plankton biomass releasing dissolved organic matter in the bottom horizons, and in upward diffusion from the sediments.     

Spatial Variability of Primary Production and Chlorophyll in the Laptev Sea in August–September

Oceanology - The spatial distribution pattern of phytoplankton primary production (PP) and chlorophyll was studied by the data of three cruises in August–September 2015, 2017, and 2018. The...     

Prediction of the strong earthquakes in Vrancea,Romania, using the CN algorithm

The application of the CN algorithm to a new earthquake catalogue, for the period from 1932 to 1993, obtained by merging Romanian and U.S.S.R. data, allows us to monitor, on the intermediate time scale, the preparation of strong, intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region. Four of the five strong earthquakes with a magnitude above 6.4 are predicted, the total duration of the Time of Increased Probability of the occurrence of an earthquake (TIP) occupies 21.7% of the time interval under consideration, i.e., about 2.5 years for each strong earthquake.     

Changes in the egg production rate of two copepod species of the genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pseudocalanus</Emphasis> in relation to temperature in the White Sea

This study examines changes in egg production rates of two co-occurring Pseudocalanus species, P. acuspes and P. minutus, in response to changing temperatures (0, 3, 6, 9 and 12°C) in the White Sea. The boreal P. acuspes (sample size >650 individuals) increased its reproductive rate gradually across the entire range of temperatures from 0 to 12°C. Significant differences in egg production rates and reaction to temperature were also observed between P. acuspes females incubated during the early vs. the mid-summer season. The sample size of the Arctic P. minutus was significantly smaller due to the low numbers at which this species occurred. However, the results suggest that this species increases its egg production rates from 0 to 3°C from 3.3 to 8.5% dry weight female^–1 day^–1, but at 9° its reproductive rate drops significantly and the animals demonstrate markedly reduced fitness. Our results indicate that closely related co-occurring species, and even different generations within one species, can demonstrate significantly different responses to changes in the physical environment.