Historical Changes in the Flood Hazard at Khartoum, Sudan: Lessons and Warnings for the Future

The 1988 floods at Khartoum were frequently described as "unprecedented". However, an examination of evidence for floods caused by the Nile and rain storms during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries leads to the conclusion that neither the Nile flood nor the rain storms nor their coincidence in one season were unprecedented and that similar situations will recur.We argue that most problems were created by complacency, lack of planning and mismanagement. We conclude with some simple suggestions for flood amelioration in the future and warn that complacency is the single most important phenomenon likely to recur to the detriment of Greater Khartoum in the future.     

An analytical model for the HF backscattered Doppler spectrum for the ocean surface

An analysis previously developed for rough surface scattering with narrow-beam reception is extended to wide-beam or omnidirectional reception. The source is considered to be a pulsed electric dipole. The analysis includes multipathing effects on the received signal. The results are used to develop a model for the backscattered radar cross section of the ocean surface, up to a second-order approximation.     

Mid-infrared observations of methanol maser sites and ultracompact H ii regions: signposts of high-mass star formation

N -band (10.5 μm) and/or Q -band (20.0 μm) images taken with MANIAC on the ESO/MPI 2.2-m telescope are presented for 31 methanol maser sites and 19 ultracompact (UC) H  ii regions. Most of the maser sites and UC H  ii regions are coincident with mid-infrared (MIR) sources to within the positional uncertainties of ∼ 3 arcsec, consistent with the maser emission being powered by the MIR source. The IRAS source positions, however, do not always coincide with the MIR sources.
Based on an average infrared spectral energy distribution, we deduce that the MIR objects are luminous enough that they should also produce a strong ionizing radiation. Some sources are consistent with stars of later spectral type, but not all can be. A number of maser sites show no detectable radio continuum emission associated with MIR emission, despite a powering source luminous enough potentially to produce an UC H  ii region. Since no signs of an UC H  ii region are detected here, these maser sites might be produced during a very early stage of stellar evolution.
We present objects that show evidence of outflow activity stemming from a maser site, exhibiting CO and/or CS line profiles indicative of outflows coincident with the MIR source. These cases are promising examples of maser sites signposting the earliest stages of high-mass star formation.     

CO2 cycling in the coastal ocean. I – A numerical analysis of the southeastern Bering Sea with applications to the Chukchi Sea and the northern Gulf of Mexico

A quasi-two dimensional model of the carbon and nitrogen cycling above the 70m isobath of the southeastern Bering Sea at 57°N replicates the observed seasonal cycles of nitrate, ammonium, ΣCO₂, pCO₂, light penetration, chlorophyll, phytoplankton growth rate, and primary production, as constrained by changes in wind, incident radiation, temperature, ice cover, vertical and lateral mixing, grazing stress, benthic processing of phytodetritus and zooplankton fecal pellets, and the pelagic microbial loop of DOC, bacteria, and their predators. About half of the seasonal resupply of nitrate stocks to their initial winter conditions is derived from in situ nitrification, with the rest obtained from deep-sea influxes. Under the present conditions of atmospheric forcing, shelf-break exchange, and food web structure, this shelf ecosystem serves as a sink for atmospheric CO₂, with storage in the forms of exported DOC, DIC, and unutilized POC (phytoplankton, bacteria, and fecal pellets).As a consequence of just the rising levels of atmospheric pCO₂ since the the Industrial Revolution, however, the biophysical CO₂ status of the Southeastern Bering Sea shelf may have switched over the last 250 years, from a prior source to the present sink, since this relatively pristine ecosystem has unergone little eutrophication. Such fluctuations of CO₂ status may thus be reversed by the physical processes of : (1) reduction of atmospheric pCO₂, (2) increased on welling of deep-sea ΣCO₂, and (3) warming of shelf waters. Based on our application of this model to the Chukchi Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, about 1.0–1.2 gigatons C y^-1 of atmospheric CO₂ may now be sequestered by temperate and polar shelf ecosystems. When tropical systems are included, however, a positive net sink of only 0.6–0.8. × 10¹⁵g C y⁻¹ may prevail over all shelves.     

Manganese and iron distributions off central California influenced by upwelling and shelf width

In July 2002, a combination of underway mapping and discrete profiles revealed significant along-shore variability in the concentrations of manganese and iron in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, California. Both metals had lower concentrations in surface waters south of Monterey Bay, where the shelf is about 2.5 km wide, than north of Monterey Bay, where the shelf is about 10 km wide. During non-upwelling conditions over the northern broad shelf, dissolvable iron concentrations measured underway in surface waters reached 3.5 nmol L⁻¹ and dissolved manganese reached 25 nmol L⁻¹. In contrast, during non-upwelling conditions over the southern narrow shelf, dissolvable iron concentrations in surface waters were less than 1 nmol L⁻¹ and dissolved manganese concentrations were less than 5 nmol L⁻¹. A pair of vertical profiles at 1000 m water depth collected during an upwelling event showed dissolved manganese concentrations of 10 decreasing to 2 nmol L⁻¹, and dissolvable iron concentrations of 12–20 nmol L⁻¹ in the upper 100 m in the north, compared to 3.5–2 nmol L⁻¹ Mn and 0.6 nmol L⁻¹ Fe in the upper 100 m in the south, suggesting the effect of shelf width influences the chemistry of waters beyond the shelf.These observations are consistent with current understanding of the mechanism of iron supply to coastal upwelling systems: Iron from shelf sediments, predominantly associated with particles greater than 20 μm, is brought to the surface during upwelling conditions. We hypothesize that manganese oxides are brought to the surface with upwelling and are then reduced to dissolved manganese, perhaps by photoreduction, following a lag after upwelling.Greater phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and nutrient drawdown were observed over the broad shelf, consistent with the greater supply of iron. Incubation experiments conducted 20 km offshore in both regions, during a period of wind relaxation, confirm the potential of these sites to become limited by iron. There was no additional growth response when copper, manganese or cobalt was added in addition to iron. The growth response of surface water incubated with bottom sediment (4 nmol L⁻¹ dissolvable Fe) was slightly greater than in control incubations, but less than in the presence of 4 nmol L⁻¹ dissolved iron. This may indicate that dissolvable iron is not as bioavailable as dissolved iron, although the influence of additional inhibitory elements in the sediment cannot be ruled out.     

Aquatic surface microlayer contamination in chesapeake bay

The aquatic surface microlayer (SMIC), 50 μm thick, serves as a concentration point for metal and organic contaminants that have low water solubility or are associated with floatable particles. Also, the eggs and larvae of many fish and shellfish species float on, or come in contact with, the water surface throughout their early development. The objectives of this study were (1) to determine the present degree of aquatic surface microlayer pollution at selected sites in Chesapeake Bay, and (2) to provide a preliminary evaluation of sources contributing to any observed contamination.Twelve stations located in urban bays, major rivers, and the north central bay were sampled three times, each at 5-day intervals during May 1986. Samples of 1.4–4.1 each were collected from the upper 30–60-μm water surface (surface microlayer, SMIC) using a Teflon-coated rotating drum microlayer sampler. One sample of subsurface water was collected in the central bay.At all stations, concentrations of metals, alkanes, and aromatic hydrocarbons in the SMIC were high compared with one bulk-water sample and with typical concentrations in water of Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere. SMIC contamination varied greatly among the three sampling times, but high mean contaminant levels (total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 1.9–6.2 μg 1⁻¹; Pb, 4.9–24 μg 1⁻¹; Cu, 4–16 μg 1⁻¹; and Zn, 34–59 μg 1⁻¹) were found at the upper Potomac and northern bay sites. Three separate areas were identified on the basis of relative concentrations of different aromatic hydrocarbons in SMIC samples - the northern bay, the Potomac River, and the cleaner southern and eastern portions of the sampling area.Suspected sources of surface contamination include gasoline and diesel fuel combustion, coal combustion, and petroleum product releases. Concentrations of metals and hydrocarbons, at approximately half the stations sampled, are sufficient to pose a threat to the reproductive stages of some fish and shellfish. Sampling and analysis of the surface microlayer provides a sensitive tool for source identification and monitoring of potentially harmful aquatic pollution.