Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.     

Reflections on the history of research on large wood in rivers

Dynamics and functions of large wood have become integral considerations in the science and management of river systems. Study of large wood in rivers took place as monitoring of fish response to wooden structures placed in rivers in the central United States in the early 20th century, but did not begin in earnest until the 1970s. Research has increased in intensity and thematic scope ever since. A wide range of factors has prompted these research efforts, including basic understanding of stream systems, protection and restoration of aquatic ecosystems, and environmental hazards in mountain environments. Research and management have adopted perspectives from ecology, geomorphology, and engineering, using observational, experimental, and modelling approaches. Important advances have been made where practical information needs converge with institutional and science leadership capacities to undertake multi-pronged research programmes. Case studies include ecosystem research to inform regulations for forest management; storage and transport of large wood as a component in global carbon dynamics; and the role of wood transport in environmental hazards in mountain regions, including areas affected by severe landscape disturbances, such as volcanic eruptions. As the field of research has advanced, influences of large wood on river structures and processes have been merged with understanding of streamflow and sediment regimes, so river form and function are now viewed as involving the tripartite system of water, sediment, and wood. A growing community of researchers and river managers is extending understanding of large wood in rivers to climatic, forest, landform, and social contexts not previously investigated. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring large wood retention and deposition in contrasting river morphologies linking numerical modelling and field observations

Large wood tends to be deposited in specific geomorphic units within rivers. Nevertheless, predicting the spatial distribution of wood deposits once wood enters a river is still difficult because of the inherent complexity of its dynamics. In addition, the lack of long‐term observations or monitored sites has usually resulted in a rather incomplete understanding of the main factors controlling wood deposition under natural conditions. In this study, the deposition of large wood was investigated in the Czarny Dunajec River, Polish Carpathians, by linking numerical modelling and field observations so as to identify the main factors influencing wood retention in rivers. Results show that wood retention capacity is higher in unmanaged multi‐thread channels than in channelized, single‐thread reaches. We also identify preferential sites for wood deposition based on the probability of deposition under different flood scenarios, and observe different deposition patterns depending on the geomorphic configuration of the study reach. In addition, results indicate that wood is not always deposited in the geomorphic units with the highest roughness, except for low‐magnitude floods. We conclude that wood deposition is controlled by flood magnitude and the elevation of flooded surfaces in relation to the low‐flow water surface. In that sense, the elevation at which wood is deposited in rivers will differ between floods of different magnitude. Therefore, together with the morphology, flood magnitude represents the most significant control on wood deposition in mountain rivers wider than the height of riparian trees. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Eutrophication and management initiatives for the control of nutrient inputs to Rhode Island coastal lagoons

An assessment of developing eutrophic conditions in small temperate lagoons along the coast of Rhode Island suggests that in such shallow, macrophyte based systems the response to nutrient enrichment differs from that described for plankton based systems. The nitrogen loadings per unit area of the salt ponds are 240–770 mmol N per m² per year. Instead of the high nutrient concentrations, increased phytoplankton biomass and turbidity, leading to eventual loss of benthic macrophytes described for such systems as the Chesapeake, Patuxent and Appalachicola Bay, nutrient enrichment of the Rhode Island lagoons has led to increased growth of marine macroalgae. The increased macroalgal growth appears to alter the benthic habitat and a shift from a grazing to detrital food chain appears to be impacting important shellfisheries. As more extensive areas of organic sediments develop, geochemical cycling changes, resulting in higher rates of nitrogen remineralization and accelerated eutrophication. The major sources of nitrogen inputs to the salt ponds have been identified and a series of management initiatives have been designed to limit inputs from present and potential development within the watersheds of the lagoons.     

Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence

In this work, we consider historical earthquakes registered in Chile (from 1900 up to 2010) with epicenters located between 19 and 40°S latitude, in order to evaluate the probabilities of the occurrence of strong earthquakes along Chile in the near future. Applying Gumbel??s technique of first asymptotic distribution, Wemelsfelder??s theory and Gutenberg?CRichter relationship, we estimate that during the next decade strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes larger than 8.7?C8.9 could occur along Chile. According to our analysis, probabilities for the occurrence of such a strong earthquake range between 64 and 46% respectively. Particularly in the very well known ??seismic gap?? of Arica, a convergence motion between Nazca and South American plates of 77?C78?mm/year represents more than 10?m of displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction earthquake in this area over 134?years ago. Therefore, this area already has the potential for an earthquake of magnitude >8.     

Climatic trends and impact of climate change on agriculture in an arid Andean valley

Little is known about climate change and its impacts for the arid coastal and mountainous regions in northern Chile. The Elqui river basin, part of the Norte Chico of Chile between 27oS and 33oS latitude, is located south of the hyper-arid Atacama desert. Despite water scarcity, agricultural development in this region has been enhanced by agronomic practices and the marketing of valuable products. This paper characterizes the actual climate conditions and presents an overview and analyses of past climate variability, and future possible climate trends, emphasizing those relevant to agriculture. Precipitation shows an important decrease during the first decades of the past century. Runoff shows decreasing trends for the first half of the past century and increases for 1960 to 1985. Drought appears to be increasing. Statistical downscaling was accomplished using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator. Both future periods of 2011 to 2030 and 2046–65 showed trends to higher minimum and maximum temperature. The number of hot days (maximum temperature greater than or equal to 30°C) has a strong increasing trend during October to April. Even though the downscaled results for precipitation do not show trends, the continuation of the present trend of low amounts is a concern. We discuss some implications of climatic changes for agriculture and we emphasize the importance of adaptation, especially to deal with water scarcity.     

Quantitative reconstruction of Holocene precipitation changes in southern Patagonia

Holocene variations in annual precipitation (P_ann) were reconstructed from pollen data from southern Argentinian Patagonia using a transfer function developed based on a weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. The pollen–climate calibration model consisted of 112 surface soil samples and 59 pollen types from the main vegetation units, and modern precipitation values obtained from a global climate database. The performance (r² = 0.517; RMSEP = 126 mm) of the model was comparable or slightly lower than in other comparable pollen–climate models. Fossil pollen data were obtained from a sediment core from Cerro Frias site (50°24'S, 72°42'W) located at the forest-steppe ecotone. Reconstructed P_ann values of about 200 mm suggest dry conditions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition (12,500–10,500 cal yr BP). P_ann values were about 300–350 mm from 10,500 to 8000 cal yr BP and increased to 400–500 mm between 8000 and 1000 cal yr BP. An abrupt decrease in P_ann at about 1000 cal yr BP was associated with a Nothofagus decline. The reconstructed P_ann suggests a weakening and southward shift of the westerlies during the early Holocene and intensification, with no major latitudinal shifts, during the mid-Holocene at high latitudes in southern Patagonia.