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Importance of climate,forest fires and human population size in the Holocene boreal forest composition change in northern Europe
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Niina Kuosmanen Heikki Seppä Teija Alenius Richard H. W. Bradshaw Jennifer l. Clear Ludmila Filimonova Maija Heikkilä Hans Renssen Miikka Tallavaara Triin Reitalu 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2016,45(4):688-702
The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long‐term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. We employ pollen data from lakes, reflecting regional vegetation, and small forest hollows, reflecting local vegetation, from Russia, Finland and Sweden to reconstruct the long‐term forest composition. As potential drivers of the Holocene forest dynamics we consider climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings. We apply the statistical method of variation partitioning to assess the relative importance of these environmental variables on long‐term boreal forest composition. The results show that climate is the main driver of the changes in Holocene boreal forest composition at the regional scale. However, at the local scale the role of climate is relatively small. In general, the importance of forest fires is low both at regional and local scales. The fact that both climate and forest fires explain relatively small proportions of variation in long‐term boreal vegetation in small forest hollow records demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand‐scale forest dynamics. The relative importance of human population size was low in both the prehistorical and the historical time periods. However, this is the first time that this type of data has been used to statistically assess the importance of human population size on boreal vegetation and the spatial representativeness of the data may cause bias to the analysis. 相似文献
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Abstract Economic studies suggest that market leakage rates of greenhouse gas abatement can reach the two-digit percentage range. Although the Marrakesh Accords require Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to account for leakage, most projects neglect market leakage. Insufficient leakage accounting is facilitated by a lack of applicable methods regarding the quantification and attribution of project-related leakage effects. This article proposes a method for attributing CDM-related market leakage effects to individual projects. To this purpose, alternative attribution methods are analysed. We find that project-specific approaches fail to take account of market leakage effects. Consequently, we propose to estimate aggregate market leakage effects and attribute them proportionally to individual projects. We suggest that predetermined commodity-specific leakage factors are applied by project developers to any emission reductions that are associated with a project's leakage-relevant demand or supply changes. This approach is conservative, equitable, incentive-compatible and applicable at manageable costs. 相似文献
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Maarit Middleton Paavo Närhi Viljo Kuosmanen Raimo Sutinen 《Applied Geochemistry》2011,26(12):2215-2225
Chemometric modelling of soil element concentrations from diffuse visible and near-infrared (VSWIR, 350–2500 nm) reflectance spectroscopic measurements holds potential for soil element analyses. Research has demonstrated it particularly for organic agricultural soils, yet little is known about the VSWIR response of glacial tills. Soils with low organic matter content developed on unstratified glacial materials were studied at two geologically similar sites on the mafic metavolcanic rocks of the Lapland Greenstone belt in northern Finland. The till samples (n = 217) were composed primarily of quartz, plagioclase and amphibole having less than 3% of clinochlore, talc and illite. VSWIR spectra of mineral powder (<0.06 mm) samples were measured in the laboratory, and the spectral reflectance was regressed against partial elemental concentrations of till obtained by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) following hot aqua regia digestion. Partial least-squares regression (PLSR) analyses resulted in simultaneous prediction (R2 = 0.80–0.89) of several soil chemical elements such as Al (validation RMSE 1802 mg kg−1), Ba (5.85 mg kg−1), Co (0.86 mg kg−1), Cr (6.94 mg kg−1), Cu (2.54 mg kg−1), Fe (2088 mg kg−1), Mg (449.6 mg kg−1), Mn (0.82 mg kg−1), Ni (3.24 mg kg−1), V (4.88 mg kg−1), and Zn (0.80 mg kg−1). The electronic and vibrational molecular processes causing absorption might be responsible for accurate predictions of major elements such as Al, Fe and Mg. However, the concentrations of other major and trace elements could be predicted by the PLSR because they were cross-correlated to spectrally active soil elements or extraneous soil properties. Therefore, the applicability of the results is highly sample set specific. Further, the results show that in local scale studies at geologically fairly homogenous areas the limited spread of the data may restrict the use of the spectroscopic–chemometric approach. This paper demonstrates the capability of laboratory VSWIR spectroscopy for determining element concentrations of glacial tills. Further work should focus on overcoming the issues of sampling scale and understanding the causality for cross-correlation in quantification of the elements. 相似文献
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