Soil-precipitation feedbacks during the South American Monsoon as simulated by a regional climate model

We summarize the recent progress in regional climate modeling in South America with the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3-E), with emphasis on soil moisture processes. A series of climatological integrations using a continental scale domain nested in reanalysis data were carried out for the initial and mature stages of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) of 1993–92 and were analyzed on seasonal and monthly timescales. The role of including a spatially varying soil depth, which extends to 8 m in tropical forest, was evaluated against the standard constant soil depth of the model of about 2 m, through two five member ensemble simulations. The influence of the soil depth was relatively weak, with both beneficial and detrimental effects on the simulation of the seasonal mean rainfall. Secondly, two ensembles that differ in their initial state of soil moisture were prepared to study the influence of anomalously dry and wet soil moisture initial conditions on the intraseasonal development of the SAMS. In these simulations the austral winter soil moisture initial condition has a strong influence on wet season rainfall over feed back upon the monsoon, not only over the Amazon region but in subtropical South America as well. Finally, we calculated the soil moisture–precipitation coupling strength through comparing a ten member ensemble forced by the same space–time series of soil moisture fields with an ensemble with interactive soil moisture. Coupling strength is defined as the degree to which the prescribed boundary conditions affect some atmospheric quantity in a climate model, in this context a quantification of the fraction of atmospheric variability that can be ascribed to soil moisture anomalies. La Plata Basin appears as a region where the precipitation is partly controlled by soil moisture, especially in November and January. The continental convective monsoon regions and subtropical South America appears as a region with relatively high coupling strength during the mature phase of monsoon development.     

Arctic climate change in 21st century CMIP5 simulations with EC-Earth

The Arctic climate change is analyzed in an ensemble of future projection simulations performed with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth2.3. EC-Earth simulates the twentieth century Arctic climate relatively well but the Arctic is about 2 K too cold and the sea ice thickness and extent are overestimated. In the twenty-first century, the results show a continuation and strengthening of the Arctic trends observed over the recent decades, which leads to a dramatically changed Arctic climate, especially in the high emission scenario RCP8.5. The annually averaged Arctic mean near-surface temperature increases by 12 K in RCP8.5, with largest warming in the Barents Sea region. The warming is most pronounced in winter and autumn and in the lower atmosphere. The Arctic winter temperature inversion is reduced in all scenarios and disappears in RCP8.5. The Arctic becomes ice free in September in all RCP8.5 simulations after a rapid reduction event without recovery around year 2060. Taking into account the overestimation of ice in the twentieth century, our model results indicate a likely ice-free Arctic in September around 2040. Sea ice reductions are most pronounced in the Barents Sea in all RCPs, which lead to the most dramatic changes in this region. Here, surface heat fluxes are strongly enhanced and the cloudiness is substantially decreased. The meridional heat flux into the Arctic is reduced in the atmosphere but increases in the ocean. This oceanic increase is dominated by an enhanced heat flux into the Barents Sea, which strongly contributes to the large sea ice reduction and surface-air warming in this region. Increased precipitation and river runoff lead to more freshwater input into the Arctic Ocean. However, most of the additional freshwater is stored in the Arctic Ocean while the total Arctic freshwater export only slightly increases.     

Reevaluating the Generality of an Empirical Model for Light-Limited Primary Production in the San Francisco Estuary

Depth-integrated primary production (??P, in grams of carbon per square meter per day) was measured using ¹⁴C in the northern San Francisco Estuary (SFE) from March through August of 2006 and 2007. Determinations of ??P were then used to calibrate a published light-utilization model that relates ??P to a composite parameter of chlorophyll, solar irradiance, and photic zone depth. The resultant calibration coefficient, ??, varied by a factor of nearly two between 2006 and 2007 and was lower than determined in previous calibrations for the estuary. The now chronically low chlorophyll concentrations in the SFE have resulted in lower predictive power of the light-utilization model. The variation in ?? was likely the result of interannual variation in phytoplankton assimilation number. These results suggest that using a single ?? may yield large errors in estimated estuarine production when applied overbroad spatial and temporal scales. Given the food-limited condition of the SFE, it appears that direct measurements of primary production are necessary for accurately characterizing the base of the estuarine food web.     

Short-Term and Interannual Variability in Primary Production in the Low-Salinity Zone of the San Francisco Estuary

We measured primary production during spring?Csummer 2006?C2007 to determine the carbon supply to the low-salinity pelagic food web of the San Francisco Estuary (SFE). Weekly or biweekly samples were taken at three stations of fixed salinity for size-fractionated primary production and biomass, both as chlorophyll and from biovolume based on counts. Error variance in productivity estimates arose mainly from the depth integration of ¹⁴C uptake, showing the importance of productivity measurements at high light levels for estimates of depth-integrated production. Temporal and spatial variability in production were surprisingly small. Combining data from this study with long-term monitoring data, productivity and biomass were variable in time and salinity but without persistent patterns and with infrequent blooms. Production within the low-salinity zone was unresponsive to variation in freshwater flow, in contrast to findings in other estuaries where nutrient loading drives variability in production and other regions of the SFE where production responds to residence time or to stratification. Estimated annual primary production was only 25 and 31?g?C?m^?2?year^?1 during 2006 and 2007, only half of it in cells >5???m. These results imply that phytoplankton provided poor food web support for higher trophic levels, probably contributing to the long-term decline in fish abundance in the brackish to freshwater region of the estuary.