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排序方式: 共有142条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ 3). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ 3 time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ 3 data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ 3 predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ 3 time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ 3 reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR. 相似文献
2.
We investigate the viability of the Galactic corona model of -ray bursts by calculating the spatial distribution of neutron stars born with high velocities in the Galactic disk, and comparing the resulting brightness and angular distribution with the BATSE data. We find that the Galactic corona model can reproduce the BATSE peak flux and angular distribution data for neutron star kick velocities 800 km s–1, source turn-on ages 10 Myrs, and sampling depths 100 kpc d
max 400 kpc. 相似文献
3.
A reconstruction of the palaeohydrological conditions of a flood‐plain: a multi‐proxy study from the Grabia River valley mire,central Poland
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Dominik Pawłowski Grzegorz Kowalewski Krystyna Milecka Mateusz Płóciennik Michał Woszczyk Tomasz Zieliński Daniel Okupny Wojciech Włodarski Jacek Forysiak 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(3):543-562
This study investigated the Grabia River valley mire in central Poland to reconstruct its palaeoenvironmental conditions from the Younger Dryas to the present. We analysed sedimentological, biological and geochemical data from the palaeo‐oxbow lake and valley mire to identify the principal hydrological trends, especially episodes of high water level. During the Lateglacial and Holocene, the Grabia River had a meandering channel, and its hydraulic parameters and the channel dimensions changed in response to climatic oscillations and vegetation development. We identified phases of high flood intensity and high groundwater level that correlate with regional and supraregional climatic events. The frequency and timing of palaeohydroclimatic oscillations show strong similarities to records from other sites in Poland and the rest of Europe. We show that various analytical methods, namely, pollen, plant macrofossils, Cladocera, Chironomidae, sedimentological, geochemical and radiocarbon data, can be effective tools for reconstructing past hydroclimatic changes in palaeo‐oxbow lakes and investigating the effects of past climate changes on river environments. The high sensitivity of the biota, especially Cladocera, to changes in water level permits the reconstruction of palaeoecological changes, especially flood episodes that occurred in the river valley. In particular, the increase in the proportion of sediment‐associated Cladocera and pelagic taxa was closely correlated with floods. Through comparisons with the palaeobiological data, geochemical data allowed the identification of humid phases within the fen associated with a rising groundwater table, direct fluvial activity (floods) and alluvial deposition. We also discuss the limitations of palaeohydrological reconstructions based on these proxies, especially on fossil aquatic invertebrates. 相似文献
4.
The Swiss stone Pine (Pinus cembra L.) is an alpine species, fairly commonly occurring in the Alps and the Carpathians, close to the timberline. Natural sites of the Swiss stone pine in Poland are found exclusively in the Tatra Mountains, within the area of the Tatra National Park (TNP). In 2017, the health status of the needles of P. cembra was determined and their mycological analysis was carried out. As a result, 11 species of fungi were isolated from the needles showing disease symptoms, manifested by various shades of discoloration. The most frequently observed species was Fusarium oxysporum. It probably does not bring on disease symptoms, but may affect the development of other frequently isolated species (such as Sydowia polyspora, Lophodermium sp. and Lophodermium conigenum) that are pathogenic to Pinus spp. 相似文献
5.
Ansgar Greshake Richard Wirth Jörg Fritz Tomasz Jakubowski Ute Böttger 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2018,53(3):467-481
Libyan Desert Glass (LDG) is a SiO2-rich natural glass whose origin, formation mechanism, and target material are highly debated. We here report on the finding of a lens-shaped whitish inclusion within LDG. The object is dominantly composed of siliceous glass and separated from the surrounding LDG by numerous cristobalite grains. Within cristobalite, several regions rich in mullite often associated with ilmenite were detected. Mineral assemblage, chemical composition, and grain morphologies suggest that mullite was formed by thermal decomposition of kaolinitic clay at atmospheric pressure and T ≥ 1600 °C and also attested to high cooling rates under nonequilibrium conditions. Cristobalite contains concentric and irregular internal cracks and is intensely twinned, indicating that first crystallized β-cristobalite inverted to α-cristobalite during cooling of the SiO2-rich melt. The accompanied volume reduction of 4% induced the high density of defects. The whitish inclusion also contains several partly molten rutile grains evidencing that at least locally the LDG melt was at T ≥ 1800 °C. Based on these observations, it is concluded that LDG was formed by high-temperature melting of kaolinitic clay-, rutile-, and ilmenite-bearing Cenozoic sandstone or sand very likely during an asteroid or comet impact onto Earth. While melting and ejection occurred at high pressures, the melt solidified quickly at atmospheric pressure. 相似文献
6.
Tomasz Mrozek Szymon Gburek Marek Siarkowski Barbara Sylwester Janusz Sylwester Anna Kepa Magdalena Gryciuk 《Solar physics》2018,293(7):101
In 2009, the Russian Complex Orbital Observations Near-Earth of Activity of the Sun (CORONAS-Photon) spacecraft was launched, carrying the Polish Solar PHotometer In X-rays (SphinX). The SphinX was most sensitive in the spectral range 1.2?–?15 keV, thus an excellent opportunity appeared for comparison with the low-energy end of Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) spectra. Common spectral measurements with these instruments cover the range where most of the flare energy is accumulated. We have chosen four consecutive small solar events observed on 4 July 2009 at 13:43 UT, 13:48 UT, 13:52 UT, and 13:55 UT (RHESSI flare peak times) and used them to compare the data and results from the two instruments. Moreover, we included Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) records in our analysis. In practice, the range of comparison performed for SphinX and RHESSI is limited roughly to 3?–?6 keV. RHESSI fluxes measured with a use of one, four, and nine detectors in the 3?–?4 keV energy band agree with SphinX measurements. However, we observed that SphinX spectral irradiances are three times higher than those of RHESSI in the 4?–?6 keV energy band. This effect contributes to the difference in obtained emission measures, but the derived temperatures of plasma components are similar. RHESSI spectra were fitted using a model with two thermal components. We have found that the RHESSI hot component is in agreement with GOES, and the RHESSI hotter component fits the SphinX flaring component well. Moreover, we calculated the so-called thermodynamic measure and the total thermal energy content in the four microflares that we studied. The results obtained show that SphinX is a very sensitive complementary observatory for RHESSI and GOES. 相似文献
7.
The aim of this paper is to propose an approach for optimal siting of the KM3NeT neutrino telescope on the sea floor. The method is based on Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analyses and cost assessment. GIS techniques initially aim to derive depth and slope characteristics of the sea floor, and estimate the distance from shore. Subsequently, GIS methods are used to pre-select sites meeting the KM3NeT infrastructure criteria. Finally, the candidate locations are evaluated in terms of cost estimation. A convex combination of instantaneous cost functions (ICFs) is applied and different weighting factors are allowed to account for dissimilar importance of the considered variables. The ICFs are indexed by a parameter β to assign different cost characteristics to different variables. The overall assessment is based on the comparison of costs computed for the candidate sites assuming many configurations of weights and β values. Our exercise uses a simulated numerical bathymetry to avoid a site-specific evaluation at the initial stage of the KM3NeT project. Hence, no recommendations as to the real locations of the neutrino telescope in the Mediterranean Sea are addressed. Our approach is found to serve well in the process of comparing costs between different candidate sites. 相似文献
8.
Mechanical properties of rocks change under the influence of, temperature. Stress at the onset of yielding, ultimate strength, dilatancy, strain hardening and softening, and the confining pressure at brittle-ductile transition are all reduced by the increasing temperature. This study presents a framework of constitutive modeling of thermo-brittle-plastic behavior of rocks which encompasses these changes. The constitutive law is based on a thermo-plasticity theory first proposed for metals byPrager (1958). Two phenomenological mechanisms have been identified as central for the modeling: temperature dependence of the yield locus (thermal softening), and temperature dependence of the strain-hardening function (thermally enhanced ductility). Material parameters for two rocks, Carrara marble and Westerly granite, were determined on the basis of additional hypotheses. These parameters are used in numerical simulations of triaxial tests at different temperatures. The obtained stress-strain curves compare well to the experimental results. The changes with temperature in the stress at the onset of yielding are more accurately reproduced that the evolution of hardening or softening. Suggestions for possible improvements and future research directions are indicated. 相似文献
9.
Tomasz Niedzielski 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(6):649-664
This paper aims to compare the performances of multivariate autoregressive (MAR) techniques and univariate autoregressive
(AR) methods applied to regional scale rainfall-runoff modelling. We focus on the case study from the upper and middle reaches
of the Odra River with its main tributaries in SW Poland. The rivers drain both the mountains (the Sudetes) and the lowland
(Nizina Śląska). The region is exposed to extreme hydrologic and meteorological events, especially rain-induced and snow-melt
floods. For the analysis, four hydrologic and meteorological variables are chosen, i.e., discharge (17 locations), precipitation
(7 locations), thickness of snow cover (7 locations) and groundwater level (1 location). The time period is November 1971–December
1981 and the temporal resolution of the time series is of 1 day. Both MAR and AR models of the same orders are fitted to various
subsets of the data and subsequently forecasts of discharge are derived. In order to evaluate the predictions the stepwise
procedure is applied to make the validation independent of the specific sample path of the stochastic process. It is shown
that the model forecasts peak discharges even 2–4 days in advance in the case of both rain-induced and snow-melt peak flows.
Furthermore, the accuracy of discharge predictions increases if one analyses the combined data on discharge, precipitation,
snow cover, and groundwater level instead of the pure discharge multivariate time series. MAR-based discharge forecasts based
on multivariate data on discharges are more accurate than AR-based univariate predictions for a year with a flood, however,
this relation is reverse in the case of the free-of-flooding year. In contrast, independently of the occurrence of floods
within a year, MAR-based discharge forecasts based on discharges, precipitation, snow cover, and groundwater level are more
precise than AR-based predictions. 相似文献
10.
Material behaviour that exhibits characteristics of creep induced by a spontaneous mineral dissolution enhanced by material damage is studied. It is believed that the characteristic rates of the chemical processes involved determine the time‐rate dependence of the resulting strain. A basic model of a combined chemo‐plastic softening and chemically enhanced deviatoric strain hardening for saturated geomaterials is presented. Chemical softening is postulated to occur as a consequence of the net mass removal resulting from dissolution and precipitation of specific minerals occurring at the damage‐generated inter‐phase interfaces. Closed and open systems are discussed. In the former case, deformation at constant stress results entirely from a local compensation mechanism between the chemical softening and strain hardening. The classical three stages of creep are interpreted in terms of mechanisms of dissolution and precipitation, as well as the variation in the reaction surface areas involved in the mass exchange. In an open system, the above local mechanism is enhanced by the removal of mass via diffusion of species affecting the mass balance. Such a system is addressed via a boundary value problem as shown in an example. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献