What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

Transient‐state groundwater flow in various geometries with wells at arbitrary positions: analytical methods

We have developed a method for analytically solving the porous medium flow equation in many different geometries for horizontal (two‐dimensional), homogeneous and isotropic aquifers containing impermeable boundaries and any number of pumping or injection wells located at arbitrary positions within the system. Solutions and results are presented for rectangular and circular aquifers but the method presented here is easily extendible to many geometries. Results are also presented for systems where constant head boundary conditions can be emulated internal to the aquifer boundary. Recommendations for extensions of the present work are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Imaging the surface of Mercury using ground-based telescopes

We describe and compare two methods of short-exposure, high-definition ground-based imaging of the planet Mercury. Two teams have recorded images of Mercury on different dates, from different locations, and with different observational and data reduction techniques. Both groups have achieved spatial resolutions of <250 km, and the same albedo features and contrast levels appear where the two datasets overlap (longitudes 270–360°). Dark albedo regions appear as mare and correlate well with smooth terrain radar signatures. Bright albedo features agree optically, but less well with radar data. Such confirmations of state-of-the-art optical techniques introduce a new era of ground-based exploration of Mercury's surface and its atmosphere. They offer opportunities for synergistic, cooperative observations before and during the upcoming Messenger and BepiColombo missions to Mercury.     

The HI halo of spiral galaxies

A deep H I survey with the VLA of the spiral galaxy NGC 2403 has revealed the existence of a thick, low density layer of neutral gas surrounding the thin ‘cold’ disk. This layer has a mean rotation velocity 25–50 km s^-1 lower than that of the disk and a 10–20 km s^-1inflow towards the centre of the galaxy. In the central parts there are velocity differences from rotation of up to 150 km s^-1.Chandra observations of NGC 2403 show a diffuse, hot X-ray emitting gas component with a temperature of a few 10⁶ K. These results point at galactic fountain type of flows between disk and halo. ‘Halo’ gas with similar characteristics has also been observed in other spiral galaxies(e.g. NGC 6946, NGC 891). Such gas is probably similar to the IVCs and to some of the HVCs of the Milky Way.     

Local potential analysis of MHD instability

In many astrophysical problems, the study of the stability of an atmosphere in the presence of a magnetic field is of importance. In most cases the MHD instabilities of atmospheres are studied by energy principle of Bernsteinet al. (1958). In this paper, a general method for studying the stability of a system subject to MHD equations of conditions has been proposed. This is based on the local potential concept put forward by Glansdorff and Prigogine (1964). The scheme for securing stability criteria has been demonstrated in two particular cases.