Pervasive wetland flooding in the glacial drift prairie of North Dakota (USA)

This article describes a unique flood hazard, produced by the dramatic expansion of wetlands in Nelson County, located within the North American Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. There has been an unprecedented increase in the number, average size, and permanence of prairie wetlands, and a significant increase in the size of a closed lake (Stump Lake) due to a decade-long wet spell that began in 1993 following a prolonged drying trend. Base-line land cover information from the 1992 USGS National Land Cover Characterization dataset, and a Landsat TM scene acquired 9 July 2001 are used to assess the growth of the closed lake and wetland pond surface areas, and to analyze the type and area of various land cover classes inundated between 1992 and 2001. The open water profile in Nelson County changed from one marked by relatively comparable coverage of closed lake and wetland pond areas in 1992, to one in which wetland open water accounted for the vast majority of total open water in 2001. The bulk of the wetland pond area expansion occurred by displacing existing wetland vegetation and agricultural cropland. Producers responded to the flood hazard by filing Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) claims and enrolling cropland in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a federal land retirement program. Land taken out of agricultural production has had an enormous impact upon the agricultural sector that forms the economic base of the rural economy. In 2001 the land taken out of production due to CRP enrollment and preventive planting claims represented nearly 42% of Nelson County’s 205.2 K ha base agricultural land. The patterns obtained from this detailed study of Nelson County are likely to be the representative of the more publicized flood disaster occurring within the Devils Lake Basin of North Dakota.     

Hydrological basis of the Devils Lake,North Dakota (USA), terminal lake flood disaster

Devils Lake, a terminal lake in northeast North Dakota (USA), has experienced catastrophic flooding since 1993. From January 31, 1993, to December 31, 2014, lake level rose from 433.62 to 442.44 m, lake area expanded from 179.9 to 653.5 km², and lake volume increased from 0.70 to 3.80 km³. More than $1 billion ($USD) has been spent in government payments to mitigate direct, primary, tangible flood damages. This paper provides a case study of the hydrological basis of the Devils Lake flood disaster. The unique geomorphic setting, paleoclimatic record, and hydroclimatic conditions of the region are summarized, and a wide range of hydroclimatic data is examined to provide a broad understanding of the physical basis of the flood disaster. The primary cause of the disaster was a transition to a sustained wetter climate that resulted in a dramatic response in basin hydrological variables in 1993. The transition from a long-term dry period to a long-term wet period caused the lake water budget to begin to change from an atmosphere-controlled water budget dominated by precipitation input to an amplifier lake water budget dominated by surface runoff input to the lake. Other important hydrological factors include a nonlinear precipitation–runoff relationship following the long-term drought, fill-spill and fill-merge hydrological behavior that is characteristic of wetland complexes, an increase in the lake area-to-basin area ratio, and the critical role of frozen soils in controlling infiltration and runoff production of spring snowmelt. Engineering works to manage lake volume through two outlets have reduced, but not entirely eliminated, future flood risk.

     

Intercomparison of three urban climate models

An intercomparison of the surface energy budgets from three urban climate models was made to assess the comparability of results, and to evaluate the surface energy fluxes from each model. The three models selected spanned the continuum of approaches currently employed in the treatment of the effects of urban geometry. The first model was an urban canopy-layer model which explicitly examined urban canyon geometry. The second model treated the city as a warm, rough, moist plate but included greatly simplified parameterizations of urban geometry. Neither model included a dynamic link to the urban boundary-layer. The third model was a one-dimensional urban boundary-layer model which utilized a simple warm, rough, moist plate approach but included a dynamic coupling of the urban surface layer to the urban boundary-layer.Results showed considerable disagreement between the three models in regards to the individual energy fluxes. Average rankings of the energy fluxes in terms of comparability from high-to-low similarity were: (1) solar radiation, (2) sensible heat flux, (3) conduction, (4) latent heat flux, (5) longwave re-radiation, and (6) longwave radiation input. In general, the urban canopy-layer model provided more realistic results, although each model demonstrated strong and weak points. Results indicate that current urban boundary-layer models may produce surface energy budgets with lower sensible heat fluxes and substantially higher latent heat fluxes than is supported by field evidence from the literature.     

Using the Hazus-MH flood model to evaluate community relocation as a flood mitigation response to terminal lake flooding: The case of Minnewaukan, North Dakota, USA

Devils Lake, a terminal lake in eastern North Dakota, has risen nearly 9.0 m since 1993, resulting in over $1 Billion in direct federal payments for disaster mitigation. More than 500 homes and 700 total structures have either been relocated or destroyed by the rising lake. The City of Minnewaukan, once nearly 13.0 km from the lake shoreline, is now facing the possibility of partial or complete relocation.We use the Hazus-MH MR4 Flood Model to examine potential flood damages in Minnewaukan associated with potential future lake levels ranging from 442.57 to 445.01 m at fixed water surface elevation (WSE) increments. We use three data sets to conduct a level 2 analysis in which user-supplied data allows for a site-specific analysis of flood damages. These include: 1) structure elevation surveyed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, b) the 2010 Real Property Assessment Book for the City of Minnewaukan, and c) more than 200 individual property cards. Flood depth grids were provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency in the form of bare-earth digital elevation models derived from LiDAR point clouds. Results include a series of graduated circle flood maps showing the location and assessed value of inundated buildings, and flood damage profiles showing the cumulative number of buildings inundated and their assessed value over a range of WSE increments.We show that the functionality of Hazus-MH can be extended to examine lakeshore flood hazards, and that it provides an important geovisualization tool in evaluating relocation as a flood mitigation alternative.     

A volumetric water budget of Devils Lake (USA): non-stationary precipitation–runoff relationships in an amplifier terminal lake

Devils Lake, a terminal lake in eastern North Dakota, rose more than 9 m between 1992 and 2013, producing a 286% increase in lake area, and causing more than US$1 billion in direct damages. An annual volumetric lake water budget is developed from monthly hydroclimatological variables for the period 1951–2010 to investigate the rapid lake expansion. The lake is an amplifier terminal lake in which long-term climatic changes are amplified by positive feedback mechanisms, causing the lake to transition from a precipitation-dominated to a runoff-dominated water budget. Factors specific to the Devils Lake Basin further amplify this positive feedback relationship. These include principles of fill–spill hydrology that operate between individual sub-basins within the closed basin, and between the innumerable wetland complexes within each sub-basin. These factors create a pronounced non-stationary precipitation–runoff relationship in the basin during both long-term wetting and drying phases.