Window technique for climate trend analysis

Climatic characteristics are affected by various systematic and occasional impacts: besides the changes in the observing system (locations of the stations of the meteorological network, instruments, observing procedures), the possible local-scale and global natural and antropogenic impacts on climatic conditions should be taken into account. Apart from the predictability problems, the phenomenological analysis of the climatic variability and the determination of past persistent climatic anomalies are significant problems, among other aspects, as evidence of the possible anomalous behavior of climate or for climate impact studies. In this paper, a special technique for the identification of such shifts in the observational series is presented. The existence of these significant shorter or longer term changes in the mean characteristics for the properly selected adjoining periods of time is the necessary condition for the formation of any more or less unidirectional climatic trends. Actually, the window technique is based on a complete set of orthogonal functions. The sensitivity of the proposed model on its main parameters is also investigated. This method is applied for hemispheric and Hungarian data series of the mean annual surface temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Elasticity of tetragonal end-member majorite and solid solutions in the system Mg4Si4O12-Mg3Al2Si3O12

 The adiabatic elastic moduli of polycrystalline En₅₀Py₅₀ and En₈₀Py₂₀ majorite-garnet solid solutions (where En=4MgSiO₃, Py=Mg₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂) and the end-member En₁₀₀ tetragonal majorite were determined at ambient conditions using Brillouin spectroscopy. The adiabatic bulk modulus, K, and shear modulus, μ, of En₅₀Py₅₀ were found to be K=173.1 (20) and μ=92.3 (10) GPa, and are indistinguishable from those of the end-member pyrope, Py₁₀₀. The moduli of the more majorite-rich samples are significantly lower and are virtually identical to each other (K=162.6(11) and μ=85.7(7) for En₈₀Py₂₀; K=166(5) and μ=88(2) for En₁₀₀). In combination with previously reported moduli for this system, we conclude that both K and μ are constant over the compositional range from Py₁₀₀ to a majorite content of about 70–80%, whereupon the moduli decrease substantially. For compositions ranging from En₈₀Py₂₀ to the end-member majorite, the moduli are also approximately independent of composition, but at a lower value. An alternative model with a continuous decrease in moduli with increasing majorite content cannot be excluded, within the uncertainties of existing measurements. The contrast in moduli between aluminous pyrope garnet and Al-free majorite are small compared with the modulus changes accompanying the pyroxene – majorite phase transformation. Received August 16, 1995 /Revised, accepted January 12, 1996     

Active tectonic morphology and submarine deformation of the northern Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba from analyses of multibeam data

A high-resolution marine geophysical study was conducted during October-November 2006 in the northern Gulf of Aqaba/Eilat, providing the first multibeam imaging of the seafloor across the entire gulf head spanning both Israeli and Jordanian territorial waters. Analyses of the seafloor morphology show that the gulf head can be subdivided into the Eilat and Aqaba subbasins separated by the north-south-trending Ayla high. The Aqaba submarine basin appears starved of sediment supply, apparently causing erosion and a landward retreat of the shelf edge. Along the eastern border of this subbasin, the shelf is largely absent and its margin is influenced by the Aqaba Fault zone that forms a steep slope partially covered by sedimentary fan deltas from the adjacent ephemeral drainages. The Eilat subbasin, west of the Ayla high, receives a large amount of sediment derived from the extensive drainage basins of the Arava Valley (Wadi ’Arabah) and Yutim River to the north–northeast. These sediments and those entering from canyons on the south-western border of this subbasin are transported to the deep basin by turbidity currents and gravity slides, forming the Arava submarine fan. Large detached blocks and collapsed walls of submarine canyons and the western gulf margin indicate that mass wasting may be triggered by seismic activity. Seafloor lineaments defined by slope gradient analyses suggest that the Eilat Canyon and the boundaries of the Ayla high align along north- to northwest-striking fault systems—the Evrona Fault zone to the west and the Ayla Fault zone to the east. The shelf–slope break that lies along the 100 m isobath in the Eilat subbasin, and shallower (70–80 m isobaths) in the Aqaba subbasin, is offset by approx. 150 m along the eastern edge of the Ayla high. This offset might be the result of horizontal and vertical movements along what we call the Ayla Fault on the east side of the structure. Remnants of two marine terraces at 100 m and approx. 150 m water depths line the southwest margin of the gulf. These terraces are truncated by faulting along their northern end. Fossil coral reefs, which have a similar morphological appearance to the present-day, basin margin reefs, crop out along these deeper submarine terraces and along the shelf–slope break. One fossil reef is exposed on the shelf across the Ayla high at about 60–63 m water depth but is either covered or eroded in the adjacent subbasins. The offshore extension of the Evrona Fault offsets a fossil reef along the shelf and extends south of the canyon to linear fractures on the deep basin floor.     

Predicting the impact of management and climate scenarios on groundwater nitrate concentration trends in southern Portugal

Hydrogeology Journal - The dynamics related to evolution of nitrate-contaminated groundwater are analyzed with focus on the impact of intrinsic aquifer properties, agricultural activities and...     

Floods in megacity environments: vulnerability and coping strategies of slum dwellers in Dhaka/Bangladesh

In many megacities of the global south, the combination of rapid population growth and high pressure on space for housing, results in urban growth taking place in areas particularly prone to natural hazards. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is no exception to this rule. Many marginal settlements or slums are located on low-lying land at high risk of flooding. This paper analyzes the vulnerability of slum dwellers in Dhaka and highlights the major factors behind their sensitivity to floods and their ability to adapt to the related changes. The empirical findings presented are based on a questionnaire survey covering 625 households in five slum areas of Dhaka. Our data suggests that social capital plays an important role with regard to the ability of slum dwellers to find ways to live with the floods. Regardless of how strongly people are affected, mutual help and support are dominant features in times of crises. While poorly educated and resourced slum dwellers are highly vulnerable to external shocks, they still show a surprising capacity to cope with natural calamities.     

Comparative compressibilities of majorite-type garnets

Relative compressibilities of five silicate garnets were determined by single-crystal x-ray diffraction on crystals grouped in the same high-pressure mount. The specimens include a natural pyrope [(Mg_2.84Fe_0.10Ca_0,06) Al₂Si₃O₁₂], and four synthetic specimens with octahedrally-coordinated silicon: majorite [Mg₃(MgSi)Si₃O₁₂], calcium-bearing majorite [(Ca_0.49Mg_2.51)(MgSi)Si₃0₁₂], sodium majorite [(Na_1.88Mgp_0.12)(Mg_0.06Si_1.94)Si₃O₁₂], and an intermediate composition [(Na_0.37Mg_2.48)(Mg_0.13Al_1.07 Si₀₈₀) Si₃O₁₂]. Small differences in the compressibilities of these crystals are revealed because they are subjected simultaneously to the same pressure. Bulk-moduli of the garnets range from 164.8 ± 2.3 GPa for calcium majorite to 191.5 ± 2.5 GPa for sodium majorite, assuming K′=4. Two factors, molar volume and octahedral cation valence, appear to control garnet compression.     

Sustainable groundwater development in the coastal Tra Vinh province in Vietnam under saltwater intrusion and climate change

Three-dimensional transient groundwater flow and saltwater transport models were constructed to assess the impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change on the coastal aquifer of Tra Vinh province (Vietnam). The groundwater flow model was calibrated with groundwater levels (2007–2016) measured in 13 observation wells. The saltwater transport model was compared with the spatial distribution of total dissolved solids. Model performance was evaluated by comparing observed and simulated groundwater levels. The projected rainfalls from two climate models (MIROC5 and CRISO Mk3.6) were subsequently used to simulate possible effects of climate changes. The simulation revealed that groundwater is currently depleted due to overabstraction. Towards the future, groundwater storage will continue to be depleted with the current abstraction regime, further worsening in the north due to saltwater intrusion from inland trapped saltwater and on the coast due to seawater intrusion. Notwithstanding, the impact from climate change may be limited, with the computed groundwater recharge from the two climate models revealing no significant change from 2017 to 2066. Three feasible mitigation scenarios were analyzed: (1) reduced groundwater abstraction by 25, 35 and 50%, (2) increased groundwater recharge by 1.5 and 2 times in the sand dunes through managed aquifer recharge (reduced abstraction will stop groundwater-level decline, while increased recharge will restore depleted storage), and (3) combining 50% abstraction reduction and 1.5 times recharge increase in sand dune areas. The results show that combined interventions of reducing abstraction and increasing recharge are necessary for sustainable groundwater resources development in Tra Vinh province.

     

Phase equilibrium and calorimetric study of the transition of MnTiO3 from the ilmenite to the lithium niobate structure and implications for the stability field of perovskite

The phase boundary between MnTiO₃ I (ilmenite structure) and MnTiO₃ II (lithium niobate structure) has been determined by analysis of quench products from reversal experiments in a cubic anvil apparatus at 1073–1673 K and 43–75 kbar using mixtures of MnTiO₃ I and II as starting materials. Tight brackets of the boundary give P(kbar)=121.2−0.045 T(K). Thermodynamic analysis of this boundary gives ΔH^o=5300±1000 J·mol⁻¹, ΔS^o = 1.98 ±1J·K⁻¹· mol⁻¹. The enthalpy of transformation obtained directly by transposed-temperature-drop calorimetry is 8359 ±2575 J·mol⁻¹. Possible topologies of the phase relations among the ilmenite, lithium niobate, and perovskite polymorphs are constrained using the above data and the observed (reversible with hysteresis) transformation of II to III at 298 K and 20–30 kbar (Ross et al. 1989). The observed II–III transition is likely to lie on a metastable extension of the II–III boundary into the ilmenite field. However the reversed I–II boundary, with its negative dP/ dT does represent stable equilibrium between ilmenite and lithium niobate, as opposed to the lithium niobate being a quench product of perovskite. We suggest a topology in which the perovskite occurs stably at low T and high P with a triple point (I, II, III) at or below 1073 K near 70 kbar. The I–II boundary would have a negative P-T slope while the II–III and I–III boundaries would be positive, implying that entropy decreases in the order lithium niobate, ilmenite, perovskite. The inferred positive slope of the ilmenite-perovskite transition in MnTiO₃ is different from the negative slopes in silicates and germanates. These thermochemical parameters are discussed in terms of crystal structure and lattice vibrations.     

Experimentally determined compositions of diopside-jadeite pyroxene in equilibrium with albite and quartz at 1200–1350°C and 15–34 kbar

Equilibrium compositions of diopside-jadeite pyroxene coexisting with albite and quartz were experimentally determined at 25 different P-T conditions, using an electron microprobe for analysis. The new data and the 600°C data of Holland (1983) provided the following mixing properties of the diopside (Di)-jadeite (Jd) solid solution (J, K): G^xs = X_JdX_Di[12600 ? 9.45T + (12600 ? 7.6T)(X_Jd ? X_Di) ? (21400 ? 16.2T)(X_Jd ? X_Di)²]. The Di-Jd solution is close to ideal above 1000°C but immiscible below 565°C. The Di-Jd solvus is slightly asymmetric with the crest at composition Di_42.4Jd_57.6. Excess enthalpy is positive but smaller than indicated by the enthalpy of solution measurements of Woodet al. (1980). Disorder in the Di-Jd solution is significantly smaller than complete disorder implied by the ionic two-site model.     

Response of rigid body assemblies to dynamic excitation

Shaking table tests were conducted to investigate the response of rectangular wooden blocks and block assemblies of various sizes and slenderness to harmonic and earthquake base excitation. The shaking tests were followed by an analytical and a numerical study of response of single blocks and block assemblies. The analytical study was aimed at establishing criteria for the initiation of rocking and of overturning in response to harmonic base motion and consisted of solving numerically the differential equations of motion of a rigid block on a rigid foundation. The numerical study, in the course of which the response of both single blocks and block assemblies was examined, was implemented by means of the Distinct Element Method (DEM). Prior to the DE simulation of actual shaking tests, preliminary analyses were conducted to confirm numerical stability and to evaluate material and damping parameters. Comparing the recorded time histories with those given by the analytical study and the DE simulation, good agreement was found. The distinct element model in use appeared to follow the highly non-linear motion of rigid body assemblies faithfully to reality. On the basis of the results, provided that the necessary parameters are carefully estimated, the employed DE model can be regarded as an appropriate tool to simulate response of rigid body assemblies to dynamic base excitation.