Trend analysis and ARIMA modelling of pre-monsoon rainfall data for western India

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over different seasons influence physical, social and economic parameters. Pre-monsoon (March, April and May – MAM) rainfall over the country is highly variable. Since heat lows and convective rainfall in MAM have an impact on the intensity of the ensuing monsoons, hence the pre-monsoon period was chosen for the study. The pre-whitened Mann Kendall test was used to explore presence of rainfall trend during MAM. The results indicate presence of significant (at 10% level) increasing trend in two stations (Ajmer, Bikaner). The practical significance of the change in rainfall was also explored as percentage changes over long term mean, using Theil and Sen's median slope estimator. Forecast using univariate ARIMA model for pre-monsoon months indicates that there is a significant rise in the pre-monsoon rainfall over the northwest part of the country.     

The microbial community in the layered sediments at Laguna Figueroa,Baja California,Mexico: Does it have Precambrian analogues?

In the hypersaline lagoon at Laguna Figueroa vertically stratified diverse communities of microorganisms thrive. The modern sediments of Baja California at Laguna Figueroa contain cyanobacterial communities and sedimentary structures produced by these blue greens that have already been studied by Horodyski and his colleagues. This paper provides an introduction to the complex microbial communities, primarily those that underlie the laminated Microcoleus mats. They are composed of anaerobic photosynthetic and heterotrophic bacteria.The following genera of cyanobacteria at least are components of these mat communities: Lyngbya, Microcoleus, Entophysalis, Phormidium, Pseudoanabaena, Anabaena and Schizothrix. Among the photosynthetic bacteria several species of Thiocapsa-like microbes formed major surface components of certain mats and scums; rhodospirilli, rhodopseudomonads, chromatis and others were seen.The following nonphotosynthetic bacteria were identified: Nocardia sp., three types of spirilli, two types of Spirochaeta sp., two types of Desulfovibria sp., a new strain of red Beneckea and four distinctive unidentified coccoid and filamentous bacteria. Reasons are given for believing several of the species are new to science and that the microbial diversity is far greater than the approximately twenty species reported here. Eukaryotes are extremely rare. Only one species of animal, a herpachtechoid copepod, was ever seen in the 8-km long microbial communities of the hypersaline basin. Dunaliella salina, a chlorophyte and Aspergillus sydowi, an ascomycetous fungus were the only eukaryotes that were observed to be regular components of mat communities. Ciliates, amoebae (including a chrysarchnion-like microbe) and diatom tests, mostly empty, were the only other eukaryotes observed. Attempts to enrich for eukaryotic microorganisms were not successful whereas attempts to enrich for bacteria, especially anaerobes led to such a profusion of forms that to continue detailed study of them was beyond our means. Unidentified small rods and cocci constituted the largest fraction of individuals in the subsurface community. The microbes isolated from mats are adapted for alternating dry and wet conditions as well as high concentrations of salt and low concentrations of oxygen.     

A microseismic experiment in Abu Dhabi,United Arab Emirates: implications for carbonate reservoir monitoring

A microseismic experiment utilizing a single downhole array of eight 3-component receivers was conducted in an offshore oilfield in the emirate of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. The Lower Cretaceous Thamama Group is the major carbonate reservoir in the field producing from six zones. Microseismic data was acquired in conjunction with gas injections that took place in the Thamama IV A and IV B reservoirs during 9 days of acquisition. The aim of the experiment was to monitor the microseismic activity arising in the carbonate reservoirs as a result of gas injection. A total of 103 microseismic events were detected from two of the receivers. For the majority of these events, there were no well-defined P wave arrivals, probably due to the presence of strong background noise and the very weak microseismic signals. The results from this experiment indicate that the detected events are probably related to the microseismic activities caused by the gas injection within the Thamama IV B reservoir. Therefore, downhole microseismic monitoring methods can potentially provide valuable information about the fracture systems within the carbonate reservoirs of Abu Dhabi's oilfields.     

Redefining homogeneous climate regions in Bangladesh using multivariate clustering approaches

Natural Hazards - The knowledge of the climate pattern for a particular region is important for taking appropriate actions to alleviate the impact of climate change. It is also equally important...     

An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai

Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. Our findings suggest that by the 2080s, in a SRES A2 scenario, an ??upper bound?? climate scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100 year event could triple compared with current situation (to $690?C$1,890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100 year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%.,We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. We conclude that, while this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario, the risk-assessment core demonstrated in this study could form an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We provide a discussion of sources of uncertainty and risk-based tools could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change.     

Relativistic anisotropic charged fluid spheres with varying cosmological constant

Static spherically symmetric anisotropic source has been studied for the Einstein-Maxwell field equations assuming the erstwhile cosmological constant Λ to be a space-variable scalar, viz., Λ=Λ(r). Two cases are examined out of which one reduces to isotropic sphere. The solutions thus obtained are shown to be electromagnetic in origin as a particular case. It is also shown that the generally used pure charge condition, viz., ρ+p=0 is not always required for constructing electromagnetic mass models.     

Land scarcity and land access in a hazard-prone island: Sagar,Indian Sundarbans

The analytical inseparability of natural environment and society is reiterated by the findings of this study which contributes to a genre of studies that centre-stages the socio-ecological system. This study seeks to understand the interplay of state-related and other modes of securing property rights in the context of pervasive coastal hazards through a case study from the Indian Sundarbans region (Sagar Island in West Bengal). This paper also contributes to research pertaining to slow-onset disasters and attempts to examine emerging dimensions of land scarcity as well as diverse modes of access to land in the context of progressive ecological vulnerability. The analysis highlights the varying shades of declining land access and investigates how existing land policies and disaster management mechanisms remain far from extending security to communities experiencing environmental crisis. The paper thereby examines how community and state agencies adopting means to allocate property may in fact refute legality and perpetuate informality.