Analysing Lava Risk for the Etnean Area: Simulation by Cellular Automata Methods

The model SCIARA, based on the Cellular Automata paradigm, is a versatile instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows.The possible fields of intervention are:[(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of detailed maps of risk;[(b)] The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution;[(c)] The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation.A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with different vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in the 1991–1993 eruption.The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inhabited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Automata.     

An exploration of potential raw materials for prehistoric pottery production in the Tao River Valley,Gansu Province,China

Northwest China is known for its Majiayao-style Neolithic painted pottery which has received much praise for its high level of craftsmanship, yet its chain of production, in particular the step of raw material selection, is still poorly understood. To fill this lacuna, the present study explores the raw materials used in producing these wares from a geological and technological perspective. At its core stands the first geoarchaeological survey conducted around the eponymous site of Majiayao which collected 47 samples of raw materials suitable for ceramic production including clay, loess and rocks, which were all analysed macroscopically. A selection was analysed using thin-section petrography, and a subset of the clay and loess samples were subjected to firing experiments. Additionally, three clay samples were analysed by scanning electron microscope with energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer to understand their composition and behaviour in ceramic production. These were then compared to archaeological ceramics, thus providing insights into raw-material availability and selection that will be of importance not only for research on Majiayao-style pottery but also for later-period ceramics produced in the area. This research shows how an archaeologically informed geological survey can contribute insights into human–environment interaction in early pottery production, especially the interplay between raw-material availability, technological know-how and potters' choices.     

Revisiting the 1669 Etnean eruptive crisis using a cellular automata model and implications for volcanic hazard in the Catania area

Cellular Automata provide an alternative approach to standard numerical methods for modelling some complex natural systems, the behaviour of which can be described in terms of local interactions of their constituent parts. SCIARA is a 2-D Cellular Automata model which simulates lava flows. It was tested on, validated by, and improved on several Etnean lava events such as the 1986–1987 eruption and the first and last phase of the 1991–1993 event. With respect to forecasting the surface covered by the lava flows, the best results were acceptable. The model has been used to determine hazard zones in the inhabited areas of Nicolosi, Pedara, S. Alfio and Zafferana (Sicily, Italy). The main goal of the current work in the Etnean area from Nicolosi to Catania has been the verification of the volcanic hazard effects of an eruptive crisis similar to the event that occurred in 1669. The simulation uses the volcanic data of the 1669 eruption with present-day morphology. Catania has been affected by some historical Etnean events, the most famous one being the 1669 eruption, involving 1 km³ of lava erupted over the course of 120 days. The simulation of ephemeral vents and the use of different histories within the experiments have been crucial in the determination of a new hazard area for Catania. In fact, during the simulation the city was never affected without the introduction of ephemeral vents, proving the fact that lava tubes played a fundamental role in the 1669 Catania lava crisis.