Synthetic isoseismals of two Californian earthquakes

Comparison between the observed and the synthesized isoseismals of the relatively small earthquake of Sierra Madre (1991) and of the big one in San Francisco (1906), California, suggests that sometimes the areal shapes of the territories damaged by earthquakes might be synthetically traced out with a simple kinematic function which, following the asymptotic approach, takes into account some gross features of the sources. The rather good fits presented herein may indicate the possibility of substituting in some regions the so-called empirical attenuation relations, which are currently used in regional seismic hazard studies, by new more source-dependent algorithms. Conversely, the technique could help in retrieving information about sources of earthquakes from the pre-instrumental era, (i) in areas where it could be proved that the effects due to the travel paths and to local site conditions are negligible, (ii) when the detailed modelling techniques nowadays available are inapplicable due to lack of data, or (iii) for saving time and money. It seems that the algorithm gives rather stable results.Formerly: LIVIO SIRO.     

Validation of a kinematic and parametric approach to calculating intensity scenarios

We employ our semi-empirical kinematic model for shear body waves (KF) [Sirovich L. A simple algorithm for tracing out synthetic isoseismals. Bull Seism Soc Am 1996;86(4):1019–27; Sirovich L. Synthetic isoseismals of three earthquakes in California-Nevada. Soil Dyn Earthquake Eng 1997;16:353–62] to back-predict and then validate the regional intensity scenario of a destructive earthquake (Loma Prieta, California, M_s 7.1, October 17, 1989). Only the pre-1988 geological and seismotectonic knowledge was used to set the 11 source parameters of KF (in this sense, our procedure was deterministic). Then, the ranges of the pre-1988 uncertainties were explored by grid search and the parametric combination produced 59,049 sources. The quality of our prediction was measured using the field intensities of 1989 by the US Geological Survey (in the MMI scale). The squared scenario residuals are: 73 for the mean KF scenario and 123 for the best available empirical attenuation of MMI intensity. We stress that, before using KF in the forward mode, its automatic inverse application has already been validated by refinding a series of earthquake sources [Gentile F, Pettenati F, Sirovich L. Validation of the automatic nonlinear source inversion of the US geological survey intensities of the Whittier Narrows, 1987 Earthquake. Bull Seism Soc Am 2004;94(5):1737–47; Pettenati F, Sirovich L. Intensity-based source inversion of three destructive California earthquakes. Bull Seism Soc Am 2007;97(5):1587–606; Sirovich L, Pettenati F. Source inversion of intensity patterns of earthquakes: a destructive shock in 1936 in northeast Italy. J Geophys Res 2004;109:B10309, doi:10.1029/2003JB002919:1–16]. If our technique had been available at the time, the 1989 pattern of damage south of San Francisco would have been conservatively foreseen even from 1983 on.     

Test of Source-Parameter Inversion of Intensity Data

We demonstrate that the approximate source kinematics of the San Fernando, 1971 earthquake can be back-predicted by analysing its macroseismic intensity data set (felt reports) objectively and quantitatively. This is done by inverting either the data set of the intensity values observed in all sites, or the intensities tessellated with the Voronoi polygons technique. It is shown that the kinematic characteristics found following our method (epicentral coordinates, source depth, seismic moment, rupture length, Mach number, fault plane solution) match those determined by other authors, via instrumental measurements, rather well. The prerequisite for obtaining these results is that local amplification must not affect groups of neighboring sites. It was possible to invert the U.S.G.S. ``felt reports' for the source because this data set is sufficiently uncontaminated by local site responses, and retains relevant regional traces of source effects. Isoseismal maps cannot be safely used for this task, because qualitative drawing criteria give subjective results. Isoseismals, based on incomplete space frequency samplings, give rise to spurious effects, whereas the Voronoi polygons produce easy-to-grasp, quantitative and objective, representations of macroseismic intensity data. The tests performed, up to now on a series of earthquakes, suggest that the combined use of tessellation and of our KF model is promising mostly for inverting intensities of preinstrumental earthquakes.     

Synthetic isoseismals of three earthquakes in California and Nevada

Recent tests on a series of earthquakes in California and Nevada suggest that in some regions the approximate shapes of the territories with equal earthquake-induced damage (expressed in terms of macroseismic intensity) could be synthetically traced out with a simple formula. This formula takes into account some gross features of the source: depth and length, unilateral or bilateral rupture, radiation patterns, rupture velocity, and directivity. Having been formulated on an empirical basis, the formula is however compatible with the so-called asymptotic approach, in which the far-field component of the Green's function is used. This paper presents the synthetic isoseismals of the earthquakes at Cedar Mountain, Nevada, 1932; Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley, Nevada, 1954; and Coalinga, California, 1983. An overall consistency, from acceptable to remarkable, between the observed intensity patterns and the synthetically back-predicted intensity has been obtained for them. Where the detailed modelling techniques available today are inapplicable, due to insufficient information on the features of the seismic sources, or to save time and money, the new formula may be utilizable for improving seismic hazard calculations.The formula was also used inversely for back-predicting geometric-kinematic parameters of the Coalinga 1983 earthquake from macroseismic maps. This gave characteristics for its source which are in good agreement with the majority of data inferred from modelling and from analyzing modern instrumental recordings. This striking result opens new perspectives in retrieving information on the source of ancient earthquakes for which only macroseismic information is available.     

Spectral characteristics of the seismic hazard between the alps and the dinarides

Empirical correlations between response spectra, magnitude, distance from the source and geological site conditions are introduced in a regional study of seismic hazard. A 350-year earthquake catalogue is treated by means of the statistics of extremes and both the spectral amplitudes (pseudovelocity) corresponding to a series of frequency bands are separately mapped, and the complete predicted response spectra calculated at some sites. Three kinds of geological site conditions are considered: thick and thin (less than 20 m deep) alluvium, and rock. A particular dependence of the results on the geographical distribution of earthquakes and on their magnitudes is commented. The seismic hazard of the study area is also computed by applying a traditional regression between peak ground velocity, magnitude and distance; a comparison with the seismic hazard given by the frequency dependent psuedovelocity indicates the extent of the uncertainty associated with the common practice of scaling response spectra directly from ground motion parameters.     

First evidence of an interglacial lake of Eemian age in northeast Italy

This paper assesses the age of the Tagliamento Morainic Amphitheatre (northeast Italy), one of the largest morainic bodies in the piedmont area of northern Italy, using new stratigraphical and thermoluminescence (TL) data obtained from a site located on the inner flank of the amphitheatre. Two samples from a 12-m-thick stratum of fluviolacustrine, non-varved, fine sand provided TL ages of approximately 110 ± 16 ka BP. This sandy layer lies below a 6-m-thick, massive (non-laminated), clayey stratum. It is hypothesised that a large but short-lived lake formed during the interglacial phase separating the penultimate and last glaciations. Assigning a ‘Riss’ age to the southeastern part of the amphitheatre therefore regains credence. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismotectonic outline of South-Eastern Sicily: an evaluation of available options for the earthquake fault rupture scenario

Seismotectonic information and interpretations available for SE Sicily suggest three groups of possible sources for the M=7.1-7.5 mainshock of 1693 and its strong foreshock: (1) normal faults belonging to the Ibleo Maltese Escarpment (also: Malta Escarpment); (2) normal faults associated with the two adjacent Simeto and Scordia-Lentini structures; (3) a transfer structure between the Sicily Straits rift system and the two grabens to the north. We use a new kinematic model to invert the data sets of macroseismic intensities of the two earthquakes to retrieve information on their sources. For this, we invert point observations, or intensities tessellated with the Voronoi polygons technique, and treat residuals of inversion in the matrix of points, or in the tessellated plane. Our inversions of the regional intensity patterns using this technique show that family N°3 is a good candidate for the foreshock of 9 January, 1693. For the mainshock of 11 January, 1693, an almost perfect synthesis of its intensity IX area was obtained with our model and a source belonging to family N°3. However, all information considered (tsunami included), this earthquake could have been produced either by (3) or by a fault located along the Ibleo-Maltese Escarpment, and tangential to the Augusta and Siracusa promontories.