Solar–terrestrial effects possibly stronger in biblical times

Paleomagnetic studies have shown that, moving backwards in time, the geomagnetic dipole moment increased to a peak nearly 50% greater than at present ca. 2500 years ago. Attempts to model how changes in dipole moment affect solar–terrestrial relations have hitherto invoked a scaling relation for the size of the magnetosphere based on finding where the magnetic pressure of the dipole field balances the ram pressure of the solar wind. This approach predicts that, following a solar storm, the strength of the terrestrial response represented by the electrical potential across the auroral zones in the ionosphere should vary as the 1/3 power of dipole moment. Such a weak dependence suggests that a 50% increase in dipole moment would minimally effect (14%) terrestrial manifestations of solar storms. Recent work, however, based on a feedback mechanism involving electrical currents coupling the magnetosphere and ionosphere has identified a stronger 4/3, power scaling relation applicable to storm conditions. Here we use a global MHD simulation to calculate for a 50% increased dipole moment the correspondingly increased auroral-zone potential and its extension to low latitudes.     

Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions

Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km³ in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50–100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500–1500 km². Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792.The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km² at velocities exceeding 100 m s^–1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny.Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms^–1 and travel tens of kilometers. When not confined by valley walls, avalanches can affect wide areas beyond the volcano's flanks. Tsunamis from debris avalanches at coastal volcanoes have caused more fatalities than have the landslides themselves or associated eruptions. The probable travel distance (L) of avalanches can be estimated by considering the potential vertical drop (H). Data from a catalog of around 200 debris avalanches indicates that the H/L rations for avalanches with volumes of 0.1–1 km³ average 0.13 and range 0.09–0.18; for avalanches exceeding 1 km³, H/L ratios average 0.09 and range 0.5–0.13.Large-scale deformation of the volcanic edefice and intense local seismicity precede many slope failures and can indicate the likely failure direction and orientation of potential lateral blasts. The nature and duration of precursory activity vary widely, and the timing of slope faliure greatly affects the type of associated eruption. Bandai-type eruptions are particularly difficult to anticipate because they typically climax suddenly without precursory eruptions and may be preceded by only short periods of seismicity.     

Assessing anthropogenic impacts on limited water resources under semi-arid conditions: three-dimensional transient regional modelling in Jordan

Both increasing aridity and population growth strongly stress freshwater resources in semi-arid areas such as Jordan. The country’s second largest governorate, Irbid, with over 1 million inhabitants, is already suffering from an annual water deficit of 25 million cubic meters (MCM). The population is expected to double within the next 20 years. Even without the large number of refugees from Syria, the deficit will likely increase to more then 50 MCM per year by 2035 The Governorate’s exclusive resource is groundwater, abstracted by the extensive Al Arab and Kufr Asad well fields. This study presents the first three-dimensional transient regional groundwater flow model of the entire Wadi al Arab to answer important questions regarding the dynamic quality and availability of water within the catchment. Emphasis is given to the calculation and validation of the dynamic groundwater recharge, derived from a multi-proxy approach, including (1) a hydrological model covering a 30-years dataset, (2) groundwater level measurements and (3) information about springs. The model enables evaluation of the impact of abstraction on the flow regime and the groundwater budget of the resource. Sensitivity analyses of controlling parameters indicate that intense abstraction in the southern part of the Wadi al Arab system can result in critical water-level drops of 10 m at a distance of 16 km from the production wells. Moreover, modelling results suggest that observed head fluctuations are strongly controlled by anthropogenic abstraction rather than variable recharge rates due to climate changes.     

Hydrochemical variation in the springs water between Jerusalem–Ramallah Mountains and Jericho Fault,Palestine

The spatial and temporal changes of the composition of the groundwater from the springs along the Wadi Qilt stream running from the Jerusalem–Ramallah Mountains towards the Jericho Plain is studied during the hydrological year 2006/2007. The residence time and the intensity of recharge play an important role in controlling the chemical composition of spring water which mainly depends on distance from the main recharge area. A very important factor is the oxidation of organics derived from sewage and garbage resulting in variable dissolved CO₂ and associated HCO₃ ⁻ concentration. High CO₂ yields lower pH values and thus under-saturation with respect to calcite and dolomite. Low CO₂ concentrations result in over-saturation. Only at the beginning and at the end of the rainy season calcite saturation is achieved. The degradation of dissolved organic matter is a major source for increasing water hardness. Besides dissolution of carbonates dissolved species such as nitrate, chloride, and sulfate are leached from soil and aquifer rocks together with only small amounts of Mg. Mg not only originates from carbonates but also from Mg–Cl waters are leached from aquifer rocks. Leaching of Mg–Cl brines is particularly high at the beginning of the winter season and lowest at its end. Two zones of recharge are distinguishable. Zone 1 represented by Ein Fara and Ein Qilt is fed directly through the infiltration of meteoric water and surface runoff from the mountains along the eastern mountain slopes with little groundwater residence time and high flow rate. The second zone is near the western border of Jericho at the foothills, which is mainly fed by the under-groundwater flow from the eastern slopes with low surface infiltration rate. This zone shows higher groundwater residence time and slower flow rate than zone 1. Groundwater residence time and the flow rate within the aquifer systems are controlled by the geological structure of the aquifer, the amount of active recharge to the aquifer, and the recharge mechanism. The results of this study may be useful in increasing the efficiency of freshwater exploitation in the region. Some precautions, however, should be taken in future plans of artificial recharge of the aquifers or surface-water harvesting in the Wadi. Because of evaporation and associated groundwater deterioration, the runoff water should be artificially infiltrated in zones of Wadis with high storage capacity of aquifers. Natural infiltration along the Wadis lead to evaporation losses and less quality of groundwater.     

Groundwater chemistry of strike slip faulted aquifers: the case study of Wadi Zerka Ma’in aquifers, north east of the Dead Sea

Wadi Zerka Ma’in catchment area is located to the north east of the Dead Sea. It has two types of aquifers: (a) an upper unconfined aquifer and (b) a lower confined aquifer. The two aquifers are separated by a marl aquiclude. A major strike slip fault passes perpendicularly through the two aquifers and the aquiclude layer with embedded normal faults. The aim of the study was to specify the effect of the major strike slip fault on the groundwater chemistry. The spatial variability of the hydrochemical compositions and physiochemical parameters of the groundwater were investigated. It was found that the embedded normal faults, of the strike slip fault, form conduits that allow groundwater to flow from the lower aquifer to the upper aquifer, resulting in mixed groundwater. The ratio of mixing was estimated to be 94 % groundwater from the upper aquifer and 6 % from the lower aquifer. Since groundwater in the lower aquifer is around three times more saline than the upper aquifer, water mixing into the upper water aquifer generates a salinity hazard.     

Blood metal levels and metal-influenced immune functions of harbour seals in captivity

Immunological blood parameters and the effects of environmental pollutants on the immune system are important to assess the health status of seals. Animals living permanently in seal centres are useful for development and validation of diagnostic tools for free-ranging animals. In this study, parameters of cellular immunity as well as metal concentrations in blood and metal influence on cell proliferation of seven seals from a seal centre were investigated repeatedly using multi-element analysis and a lymphocyte proliferation assay. The metal concentrations, except for tin and chromium, were in general comparable to those of free-ranging animals of the North Sea. The unstimulated and mitogen-stimulated lymphocyte proliferation showed strong intra- and inter-individual variability, which reflected variability in activation of the immune status. Furthermore, both immunosuppressive and stimulative influences of metals on lymphocytes were found. Summarising, the methods used in this investigation provided useful information on these animals, and their application to free-ranging animals can be recommended.     

A New Tethered Balloon-Borne Payload for Fine-Scale Observations in the Cloudy Boundary Layer

A new scientific payload is introduced for fine-scale measurements of meteorological (wind vector, static air temperature, humidity, and air pressure) and microphysical (aerosol particles and cloud droplets) properties, suspended below a tethered balloon. The high resolution sensors and the tethered balloon are described. Measurements in a lifted fog layer from a first field campaign are presented.The detailed investigation of the fog/haze and the temperature inversion layer demonstrates the damping influence of the fog on temperature fluctuations, while thewind fluctuations are significantly decreased by theevolving temperature inversion, whichwas about 30 m above the fog layer.From spectral analysis the noise floors of the high-resolution sensors are determined to10^-6 kg m^-3 for the LWC (liquid water content) and 4 mK for the fast temperature sensor (UFT-B). The correlation betweentemperature and LWC structures in shallow haze layers is investigated. The release of latent heat and the corresponding warming in the haze of about 0.1 K could be quantified.