The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fifteen days of continuous activity survey at Stromboli volcano, Italy, in late September 2000: Doppler radar, seismicity, infrared, soil humidity, and mapping of the crater region

The intention of our study was to gain new insight into the complex interplay between different types of eruption of the Stromboli volcano by combining detailed field observation with different geophysical methods. We recorded more than 600 eruptions by use of continuous Doppler radar measurements. We detected the onset of the seismic precursor and the beginning of the visible eruption by use of seismic and infrared data. Two soil samples per day were used to monitor the effect of humidity on the eruptive style. We mapped the crater region as a reference base for the long-term morphological changes of the active region and for the exact positions of our measurement systems. Two distinct types of eruption were distinguished from each other on the basis of seismic and radar data - short, wide-angle Strombolian explosions and pulsating, sharp angle fountain-like eruptions. Data and visual observations imply that weather conditions significantly effect volcanic activity. We also interpret the intensification of eruptive activity during our field study as replenishment of the reservoir with a new batch of magma in late September 2000.     

Groundwater flow and velocity in a 500 ka pre-Illinoian till, eastern Iowa

Few hydrology studies have investigated glacial till older than Illinoian time (> 300,000 BP) despite these older tills overlying a large portion of North America. An 8- and 6-well monitoring well nest installed into a 31 m thick pre-Illinoian till sequence near Cedar Rapids, Iowa was characterized using traditional hydrologic methods and chemical tracers. The aquitard system consists of about 9 m of fine-grained oxidized pre-Illinoian till overlying 22 m of unoxidized till and Devonian dolomite bedrock. Hydraulic conductivity ranged from 10⁻⁷ m/s in oxidized till and 10⁻¹⁰ m/s in unoxidized till. Hydraulic head relations indicated downward groundwater flow through the till profile with hydraulic gradients steepest near the unoxidized till/bedrock interface. Tritium and nitrate concentrations indicated recent (< 50 years old) recharge to a depth of 9–12 m below land surface. ¹⁸O and ²H results ranged between −6.2 to −7.9% and −38.0 to −50.9%, respectively, and plotted near the local Meteoric Water Line. A 1 per mil shift toward less negative ¹⁸O values with depth may suggest a climate change signal contained in the till water but more data are needed to verify this trend. Vertical groundwater velocity through the unoxidized till was estimated to range from 0.4 to 5.7 cm/year. The thickness of unoxidized pre-Illinoian till in Linn County was estimated from available records and contoured against vertical travel times to evaluate the effectiveness of pre-Illinoian till in preventing nitrate migration to underlying bedrock aquifers.     

Detrital subsidy to the supratidal zone provides feeding habitat for intertidal crabs

Beach-cast wrack of marine origin is considered a spatial subsidy to the marine-terrestrial transition zone. We found that the wrack line on sand and gravel beaches of Vancouver Island was frequented by intertidal purple shore crabs,Hemigrapsus nudus (Dana 1851) and densely colonized by detritivorous talitrid amphipods. Amphipods spend the day buried in sand and forage on beach wrack during the night.H. nudus were found in supratidal wrack putches immediately after nightly high tides in field censuses, but spent most of the day and ebb tides either submerged subtidally or hidden underneath intertidal rocks and boulders. In feeding trials, intertidal shore crabs were capable of preying on talitrid amphipods. We considerH. nudus an omnivore feeding on both fresh and decaying macroalgae as well as animal prey. Although living supratidally, amphipods were significantly preferred over intertidal littorine snails by foraging shore crabs. Handling time of amphipods was significantly shorter than for littorine snails. While amphipods had a reduced risk of predation byH. nudus when buried in the sand, foraging undern eath wrack patches did not reduce predation pressure on amphipods by shore crabs. Rates of amphipod consumption by shore crabs were higher at darkness than daylight. In addition to an apparent day-night rhythm, tidal height and time elapsed since previous high tide had a significant influence on shore crab density wrack. We conclude that beach-cast wrack acts as a spatial subsidy by virtue of providing a valuable food source to talitrid amphipods, which are in turn consumed by shore crabs that ride the nightly high tide into supratidal wrack patches to reduce the risk of passing bare sand on theiry way to a feeding habitat rich in valuable prey.     

The Deformational Response of a Viscoelastic Solid Earth Model Coupled to a Thermomechanical Ice Sheet Model

We apply a coupled thermomechanical ice sheet—self-gravitating viscoelastic solid Earth model (SGVEM), allowing for the dynamic exchange of ice thickness and bedrock deformation, in order to investigate the effect of viscoelastic deformation on ice dynamics and vice versa. In a synthetic glaciation scenario, we investigate the interaction between the ice sheet and the solid Earth deformation, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), accounting for an atmospheric forcing depending on the ice sheet surface altitude. We compare the results from the coupled model to runs with the common elastic lithosphere/relaxing asthenosphere (ELRA) model, where the lithosphere is represented by a thin plate and the mantle relaxes with one characteristic relaxation time, as well as to a rigid Earth without any deformation. We find that the deformational behaviour of the SGVEM on ice dynamics (i.e. stored ice volume, ice thickness and velocity field) is comparable to the ELRA for an optimal choice of the parameters in steady state, but exhibits differences in the transient behaviour. Beyond the ice sheet, in the region of peripheral forebulge, the differences in the transient surface deformation between ELRA and SGVEM are substantial, demonstrating the inadequacy of the ELRA model for interpreting constraints on GIA in the periphery of the ice sheet, such as sea-level indicators and GPS uplift rates.     

Hydrological modelling for assessing spatio-temporal groundwater recharge variations in the water-stressed Amathole Water Supply System,Eastern Cape,South Africa

To increase the resilience of regional water supply systems in South Africa in the face of anticipated climatic changes and a constant increase in water demand, water supply sources require diversification. Many water-stressed metropolitan regions in South Africa depend largely on surface water to cover their water demand. While climatic and river discharge data is widely available in these regions, information on groundwater resources – which could support supply source diversification – is scarce. Groundwater recharge is a key parameter that is used to estimate groundwater amounts that can be sustainably exploited at a sub-watershed level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a reliable hydrological modelling routine that enables the assessment of regional spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge to discern the most promising areas for groundwater development. Accordingly, we present a semi-distributed hydrological modelling approach that incorporates water balance routines coupled with baseflow modelling techniques to yield spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge on a regional level. The approach is demonstrated for the actively managed catchment areas of the Amathole Water Supply System situated in a semi-arid part of the Eastern Cape of South Africa. In the investigated study area, annual groundwater recharge exhibits a high spatio-temporal heterogeneity and is estimated to vary between ~0.5% and 8% of annual rainfall. Despite some uncertainties induced by limited data availability, calibration and validation of the model were found to be satisfactory and yielded model results similar to (point) data of annual groundwater recharge reported in earlier studies. Our approach is therefore found to derive crucial information for efficiently targeting more detailed groundwater exploration studies and could work as a blueprint for orientating groundwater potential exploration in similar environments.     

Surface selection,adhesion, and retention behavior of marine bacteria on synthetic organic surfaces using self-assembled monolayers and atomic force microscopy

Adhesion of two marine bacteria Shewanella sp. strain T1 and Pseudoalteromonas sp. strain T8, on differently terminated alkanethiolate self-assembled monolayers on gold was investigated. The selected model surfaces—terminated by CH₃, OH, NH₂, COOH, OH-terminated oligo(ethylene glycol), and methyl-terminated oligo(ethylene glycol)—are characterized by contact angle measurement using water, methylene iodide, 1-bromonaphthalene, and formamide. Surface free energies were calculated. Cell counting of the two bacterial strains on the model surfaces after different times revealed differences between the two strains by at least one order of magnitude. For the different surfaces, the bacteria showed comparably small selectivity. Atomic force microscopy images of adhered bacteria showed very different fingerprints on the different surfaces. Electronic supplementary material  Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible to authorized users.     

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.