Robust abnormality detection methods for spatial search of radioactive materials

Radiological dirty bombs and improvised nuclear devices pose a significant threat to both public health and national security. Growing networks of radiation sensors have been deployed by a number of offices within the U.S. and international agencies. Detecting such threats while minimizing false alarm rates presents a considerable challenge to homeland security and public health. This research aims to achieve a higher probability of detection with a lower probability of false alarms. It focuses on the local spatial instability of radiation levels in order to detect radioactive materials based on robust outlier detection methods. Our approach includes a three‐step abnormality detection method consisting of one‐dimensional robust outlier detection for all gamma‐ray counts, a density‐based clustering analysis, and a two‐dimensional robust outlier detection method using a bagplot, based on spatial associations. The effectiveness of the method proposed is demonstrated through a case study, wherein radioactive materials are detected in urban environments, and its performance is compared with alternative methods employing a k‐sigma approach, local Getis–Ord () statistic, and the goodness of fit of the Poisson distribution.     

Yearly changes in the seasonal frequency and duration of short-term acid pulses in some Nova Scotia, Canada streams

 The seasonal frequency and duration of low pH events at three sites located in southwestern Nova Scotia were analyzed using measured and synthetic daily pH data. The basins varied in size from 0.3 to 300 km² and were subject to frequent snowmelt events in winter and spring, as well as occasional runoff events during summer and fall. Results showed that, in order to fill in missing data from periods where collection was interrupted, statistical approximations using discharge were not totally acceptable, as generated data consistently missed the extreme values measured. Despite a lack of totally accurate event pH estimates for periods where daily data were missing, analysis showed that in this region, low pH episodes can occur year-round including summer. The highest probabilities of low pH episodes nevertheless occurred in the winter and spring when snowmelts were frequent. Received: 12 November 1999 · Accepted: 18 July 2000     

The public perception of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK: results from focus groups and a survey

Abstract

A series of meetings of two ‘Citizen Panels’ were held to explore public perceptions of off-shore carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture and storage (CCS). In addition, a face-to-face survey of 212 randomly selected individuals was conducted. We found that, on first hearing about CCS in the absence of any information on its purpose, the majority of people either do not have an opinion at all or have a somewhat negative perspective. However, when (even limited) information is provided on the role of CO₂ storage in reducing CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere, opinion shifts towards expressing slight support for the concept.

Support depends, however, upon concern about human-caused climate change, plus recognition of the need for major reductions in CO₂ emissions. It also depends upon CCS being seen as just one part of a wider strategy for achieving significant cuts in CO₂ emissions. A portfolio including renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency, and lifestyle change to reduce demand was generally favoured. CCS can be part of such a portfolio, but wind, wave, tidal, solar and energy efficiency were preferred. It was felt that uncertainties concerning the potential risks of CCS had to be better addressed and reduced; in particular the risks of accidents and leakage (including the potential environmental, ecosystem and human health impacts which might result from leakage).     

3D seismic study of a ductile shear zone from laboratory and petrofabric data (Saint Barthélémy Massif, Northern Pyrenees, France)

In order to constrain interpretations of seismic reflection records more effectively, the seismic properties of a middle crustal section exposed in the Saint Barthélémy Massif have been determined. The massif, transected by a 200 m thick shear zone has been systematically sampled for density measurements and modal analysis has been performed in order to define the spatial variations of physical properties. Seismic velocities ( V _p, V _S, shear wave birefringence), have been measured on five representative samples to 600 MPa and 600°C simultaneously in the three structural directions (X, Y and Z). For two samples, the experimental data have been compared with calculated values, based on petrofabric analyses. The Lattice Preferred Orientation (LPO) is determined using universal stage, electron channelling microscopy and neutron diffraction goniometry. Using the experimental and calculated velocity data, we establish a lateral homogeneous anisotropic model.     

Budgeting for climate change: obstacles and opportunities at the US state level

State governments in the United States are well placed to identify opportunities for mitigation and the needs for adaptation to climate change. However, the cost of these efforts can have important implications for budgets that already face pressures from diverse areas such as unfunded pensions and growing health care costs. In this work, the current level of spending on climate-related activities at the state level are evaluated and policy recommendations are developed to improve financial management practices as they relate to climate risk. An examination of state budgets reveals that climate mitigation and adaptation activities represent less than 1% of spending in most states. The data collection highlights the obstacles to collecting accurate spending data and the lack of budgetary and accounting procedures in place. More importantly, the difficulty in benchmarking these activities poses challenges for the analysis of state-level policies as well as planning and modelling future climate-related spending. Other policy contexts, including public pensions and infrastructure, can provide guidance on budgetary and accounting tools that may help states prepare for and more efficiently manage climate-related expenditures.

Key policy insights

• Climate change mitigation and adaptation will require substantial investments across many levels of government on a wide range of activities.

• Currently, US states are not clearly demarcating climate expenditures, hindering the identification of climate-related budgetary risks.

• In the absence of guidelines, these longer term fiscal outlays may remain chronically underfunded in favour of more near-term spending priorities.

• Establishing appropriate financial management and data collection practices is important for more sophisticated cost-effectiveness and policy analyses.

     

中亚与亚洲中部晚白垩世的陆生脊椎动物组合对比

通过对前人建议的26个生物地层标志化石存在与否的简约分析,中亚与亚洲中部晚白垩世的陆生脊椎动物组合的相对层位得到了更清楚的揭示。此区最古老的组合是乌兹别克斯坦克孜勒库姆沙漠的Khodzhakul组合(早塞诺曼期),其次为蒙古戈壁沙漠东部BaynShire组的下部和上部的组合(塞诺曼期至桑顿期)。中国内蒙古二连达布苏动物群与中亚的土伦期—桑顿期动物群属于同一类群,因为它们均具龟鳖类Khunnuchelys,前者时代可能为桑顿期。三个中亚的组合(Bissekty、Yalovach和Bostobe组合)中有两个地方性的鳄形类(Kansajsuchus和Tadzhikosuchus)和一个出现于戈壁沙漠的鳄形类(Shamosuchus)化石。戈壁沙漠的坎潘期至马斯特里赫特期组合与北美同期动物群为同一类群。Djadokhta组与BarunGoyot组的坎潘期脊椎动物组合具有高度的地方性,并反应了半干旱的古环境。产自Nemegt组的组合生存于比较潮湿的环境。在组成上,这一组合与其他河流相沉积环境(Bissekty、二连达布苏以及北美Judithian期和Lancian期的组合)相似。具顶饰的鸭嘴龙Saurolophus的存在,支持了Nemegt组合为马斯特里赫特期时代。戈壁沙漠的这三个组合(Djadokhta、Barun Goyot和Nemegt组合)被归为一类,因为它们共同拥有地方性的龟类Mongolemys和兽脚亚目的小驰龙类。亚洲中部和北美的坎潘期至马斯特里赫特期组合与亚洲更加古老的组合不同在于存有暴龙科、肿头龙亚目和鸭嘴龙科。在中亚,由于地区性的海侵,这一时间段内的陆生脊椎动物组合多不清楚。     

Late Miocene to Quaternary slip history across the Qiulitag anticline in the southern Tianshan piedmont

In this study, we reconstruct the Miocene to Quaternary shortening history across the Qiulitag anticline, a complex fault‐bend fold located in southern Tianshan. We studied the Yaha and Kuche sections, where we combined surface structural measurements and seismic imaging to model the stratigraphic horizons. The history of folding was reconstructed based on magnetostratigraphic analyses and eight cosmogenic burial ages in Kuche. Pleistocene deformation rates were also quantified in Yaha based on a deformed fluvial terrace that we dated to ~67 ka using a cosmogenic depth profile. Our results suggest that the fold grew at a mean slip rate of 0.9–1.3 mm/a in both sections but accelerated to ~2.5 mm/a during the Pleistocene in Kuche. These results support a migration of the deformation towards the basin during the Pleistocene and suggest that most of the present deformation in the Tianshan is accommodated across the external structures of the range.     

The circumvention of the natural biopurification of calcium along nutrient pathways by atmospheric inputs of industrial lead

Biopurification factors for Ca with respect to Sr, Ba, and natural, uncontaminated Pb were measured for different nutrient-consumer pairs in a remote subalpine ecosystem. The factor for Sr is expressed as: (nutrient $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$) ÷ (consumer $\text{Sr}\text{Ca}$). Similar expressions were used for $\text{Ba}\text{Ca}$ and $\text{Pb}\text{Ca}$. It was found that Ca was biopurified of Sr 3-fold, of Ba 16-fold, and of Pb 100-fold in going from rock to sedge leaves. In going from sedge leaf to vole, Ca was biopurified of Sr 4-fold, of Ba 8-fold, and of Pb 16-fold. In going from meadow vole to pine marten, Ca was biopurified of Sr 6-fold, of Ba 7-fold, and of Pb 1.1-fold. Similar ranges of values for these factors were obtained for detrital and amphibian food chains. Fluxes of industrial lead entering the ecosystem as precipitation and dry deposition were measured and it was found that 40% of the lead in soil humus and soil moisture, 82% of the lead in sedge leaves, 92% of the lead in vole, and 97% of the lead in marten was industrial. The natural skeletal $\text{Pb}\text{Ca}$ ratio in carnivores (4 × 10^?8) was determined by means of corrections for inputs of industrial lead, food chain relationships, and measured biopurification factors for the ecosystem studied. This represents a 1700-fold reduction of the average $\text{Pb}\text{Ca}$ ratio in igneous rocks at the earth's surface (6.4 × 10^?5) by the compounding of successive Pb biopurification factors in transferring Ca from rock to carnivore. The natural ratio is similar to the value of 6 × 10^?8 observed for $\text{Pb}\text{Ca}$ in the bones of Peruvians who lived 2000 years ago but is 1/900th of the value of about 3.5 × 10^?5 for the skeletal $\text{Pb}\text{Ca}$ ratio found in present day Americans.This study shows experimentally how the $\text{Ba}\text{Ca}$ ratio in average surface igneous rock (3 × 10^?3) has been reduced 800-fold through compounding of successive biopurification steps to provide the skeletal $\text{Ba}\text{Ca}$ ratio of about 4 × 10^?6 observed in humans. It also provides biopurification factors for Sr and Ba among a number of nutrient-consumer pairs which anthropologists can use to delineate degrees of herbivory in diets of hominids within the last 10,000 years.