Cokriging nonstationary data

Universal cokriging is used to obtain predictions when dealing with multivariate random functions. An important type of nonstationarity is defined in terms of multivariate random functions with increments which are stationary of orderk. The covariance between increments of different variables is modeled by means of the pseudo-cross-covariance function. Criteria are formulated to which the parameters of pseudo-cross-covariance functions must comply so as to ensure positive-definiteness. Cokriging equations and the induced cokriging equations are given. The study is illustrated by an example from soil science.     

Mantle plumes: heat-flow near Iceland

In the first of four pieces arising from Gill Foulger's challenge to the mantle plume hypothesis (last issue), Carol Stein and Seth Stein join the debate with some data and comment on heat-flow around Iceland.     

Anasazi (Pre-Columbian Native-American) Migrations During The Middle-12Th and Late-13th Centuries – Were they Drought Induced?

Severe droughts in the middle-12th and late-13th centuries appear to have affected Anasazi (pre-Columbian Native American) populations. During the first drought most of the great houses in the central San Juan Basin were vacated; the second drought resulted in the abandonment of the Four Corners region. During the first drought, villages may not have been completely abandoned. The multi-year drought periods probably were characterized by reductions in both winter and summer precipitation. Maize is dependent on winter precipitation for its germination and initial growth and on summer (monsoonal) precipitation for its continued growth. Reductions in precipitation are hypothesized to have resulted in low yields of maize, the dietary staple of the Anasazi. A comparison of historic climate data and tree-ring-based reconstructions of precipitation in the Four Corners region with tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indicate that severe and persistent drought in the Four Corners region occurs when the PDO is negative and the AMO is positive. Historic climate data from the greater San Juan Basin indicate that a negative PDO is characterized by reductions in both water-year and summer precipitation, reinforcing the concept that at least some multi-year droughts involved weakening of the summer monsoon with attendant decreases in the yields of maize.     

GPS for real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems

We identify the key design aspects of a GPS-based system (and in the future, GNSS-based systems) that could contribute to real-time earthquake source determination and tsunami warning systems. Our approach is based on models of both transient and permanent displacement of GPS stations caused by large earthquakes, while considering the effect of GPS errors on inverted earthquake source parameters. Our main conclusions are that (1) the spatial pattern, magnitude, and timing of permanent displacement of GPS stations can be inverted for the earthquake source and so predict the 3D displacement field of the ocean bottom, thus providing the initial conditions for tsunami models, and (2) there are no inherently limiting factors arising from real-time orbit and positioning errors, provided sufficient near-field GPS stations are deployed. This signal could be readily exploited by GPS networks currently in place, and will be facilitated by the IGS Real-Time Project as it comes to fruition.     

Initiation and development of the southern California uplift along its northern margin

Analysis of three first-order leveling lines that traverse the White Wolf fault (site of the 1952 M = 7.7 earthquake), each resurveyed nine times between 1926 and 1974, reveals probable preseismic tilting, major coseismic movements, and a spatial association between these movements and the subsequently recognized southern California uplift. In examining the vertical control record, we have both searched for evidence of systematic errors and excluded from consideration portions of the lines contaminated by subsurface fluid and gas extraction. Movements have been referred to an invariant datum based on the 1926 position of tidal BM 8 in San Pedro, corrected for subsequent eustatic sea-level change.An 8 μrad up-to-the-north preseismic tilt (6 cm/7.5 km) was apparently recorded on two adjacent line segments within 10 km of the 1952 epicenter between 1942 and 1947. It is possible, however, that this tilt was in part caused by extraction-induced subsidence at one of the six releveled benchmarks. Data also show evidence of episodic tilts that are not earthquake related. At the junction of the Garlock and San Andreas faults, for example, an ≥5 μrad up-to-the-north tilt (7.2 cm/≤16 km) took place between Lebec and Grapevine within three months during 1964.Comparison of the 1947 and 1953 surveys, which includes the coseismic interval, shows that the SW-fault end (nearest the epicenter) and the central fault reach sustained four times the uplift recorded at the NE end of the fault (+72 cm SW, +53 cm Central, +16 cm NE). A regional postseismic uplift of 4 cm extended ≥25 km to either side of the fault after the main event, from 1953 to 1956. An interval of relative quiescence followed at least through 1959, in which the elevation change did not exceed ±3 cm.The detailed pattern of aseismic uplift demonstrates that movement proceeded in space—time pulses: one half of the uplift at the SW-fault end and extending southward occurred between 1959 and 1961, one half of the uplift at the NE-fault end and extending eastward occurred between 1961 and 1965, while the central fault reach sustained successive pulses of subsidence, uplift, and collapse (−4 cm, 1953–1960; +7 cm, 1960–1965; −2 cm, 1965–1970). In addition, the number of aftershocks concentrated near the fault ends increased in the NE relative to the SW from 1952 to 1974. These observations suggest that the aseismic uplift may have migrated northeastward from 1959 to 1965 at an approximate rate of 7–16 km/yr.Evidence for a mechanical coupling between the earthquake and the subsequent aseismic uplift is equivocal. At both fault ends, the major NWbounding flexure or tilted front of the southern California uplift is spatially coincident with the coseismic flexure that preceded it. In addition, the postulated migration of vertical deformation is similar to the 1952 seismic event in which the rupture initiated at the SW end of the fault and then propagated to the NE-fault end. However, the spatial distribution of aseismic uplift, nearly identical at both fault ends and to the south and east, and near zero in the central fault reach, is distinctly different from the nonuniform and localized coseismic deformation.     

Size distributions of artifact classes: Combining macro-and micro-fractions

The size and composition of microartifacts (objects less than 2 mm) and macroartifacts (objects greater than 2 mm) are utilized to interpret the formational processes of an archaeological site. Because grain-size distributions are known to reflect mode of transport and source, the attribute of size is examined by plotting each artifact class (unmodified rock, modified rock, ceramic, concretion, bone/shell, and metal) in size frequency diagrams. the plots allow the agent and mode of transport to be reconstructed, which in turn allows the formational processes of the site to be interpreted. the example used is the Pelts Site (23-DU-29) of southeastern Missouri. the site was chosen for this pilot study because the formation processes can be reconstructed from other data. the size distributions of each artifact class support those reconstructions and allow the proposed method to be evaluated as an interpretive method for other archaeological sites.     

Some new aspects on the problem of CO2 and climate under particular consideration of the biosphere

A re-examination of the biosphere, in particular of the tropical rain forests, is necessary since there are some contradictions in our present knowledge about carbon fluxes and carbon storage in various reservoirs. Traditional land-use systems as well as modern exploitation methods in the tropical rain forest areas need not be necessarily of such a magnitude that the global carbon cycle would undergo a major upset or even a climatic catastrophe. This conclusion is primarily based on the high photosynthesis rates of the humid tropics and on the very important role of tropical river systems for carbon transport between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.After careful consideration of all known facts this paper comes to the conclusion that 2 × 10¹⁵ g/yr C are released to the atmosphere due to deforestation and burning in the tropical rain forest belt. The same amount is probably being fixed in the temperate forests and the northern ecosystems. A possible steady balance of all terrestrial ecosystems would, therefore, be the result of a particular historical constellation whereby a destruction of vegetation in the tropics would occur simultaneously to an increase of phytomass and also to a humus and peat accumulation in temperate and northern ecosystems.