变化中的地球所面临的挑战:全球变化的科学理解(英文)

简要介绍了变化中的地球所面临的挑战 ,并在描述地球系统科学近年来所取得成就的基础上给出了全球变化的科学理解。同时也简要介绍了世界正在面临的主要环境问题 ;描述了气候系统研究所达成的共识、面临的挑战及所取得的研究进展 ;并从大气、海洋和陆地间的CO2 交换、转换、不确定性等方面阐述了碳循环 ;然后 ,简单描述了全球水循环研究进展 ;最后 ,展望了在变化的地球中生存所要面临的挑战与机遇。     

Geochemistry of meteoric calcite cements in some Pleistocene limestones

In this study, the stable isotope and trace element geochemistries of meteoric cements in Pleistocene limestones from Enewetak Atoll (western Pacific Ocean), Cat Island (Bahamas), and Yucatan were characterized to help interpret similar cements in ancient rocks. Meteoric calcite cements have a narrow range of δ¹⁸O values and a broad range of δ¹³C values in each geographical province. These Pleistocene cements were precipitated from water with stable oxygen isotopic compositions similar to modern rainwater in each location. Enewetak calcite cements have a mean δ¹⁸O composition of ?6.5%₀ (PDB) and δ¹³C values ranging from ?9.6 to +0.4%0 (PDB). Sparry calcite cements from Cat Island have a mean δ¹⁸O composition of ?4.1%₀ and δ¹³C values ranging from ?6.3 to + 1.1%₀. Sparry cements from Yucatan have a mean δ¹⁸O composition of ?5.7%₀ and δ¹³C values of ?8.0 to ?2.7%₀. The mean δ¹⁸O values of these Pleistocene meteoric calcite cements vary by 2.4%₀ due to climatic variations not related directly to latitude. The δ¹³C compositions of meteoric cements are distinctly lower than those of the depositional sediments. Variations in δ¹³C are not simply a function of distance below an exposure surface. Meteoric phreatic cements often have δ¹³C compositions of less than —4.0%₀, which suggests that soil-derived CO₂ and organic material were washed into the water table penecontemporaneous with precipitation of phreatic cements. Concentrations of strontium and magnesium are quite variable within and between the three geographical provinces. Mean strontium concentrations for sparry calcite cements are, for Enewetak Atoll, 620 ppm (σ= 510 ppm); for Cat Island, 1200 ppm (σ= 980 ppm); and for Yucatan, 700 ppm (σ= 390 ppm). Equant cements, intraskeletal cements, and Bahamian cements have higher mean strontium concentrations than other cements. Equant and intraskeletal cements probably precipitated in more closed or stagnant aqueous environments. Bahamian depositional sediments had higher strontium concentrations which probably caused high strontium concentrations in their cements. Magnesium concentrations in Pleistocene meteoric cements are similar in samples from Enewetak Atoll (mean =1.00 mol% MgCO₃; σ= 0.60 mol% MgCO₃) and Cat Island (mean = 0.84 mol% MgCO₃; σ= 0.52mol% MgCO₃) but Yucatan samples have higher magnesium concentrations (mean = 2.20 mol% MgCO₃: σ= 0.84mol% MgCO₃). Higher magnesium concentrations in some Yucatan cements probably reflect precipitation in environments where sea water mixed with fresh water.     

Metamorphic History of a High-Grade Blueschist Exotic Block from the Franciscan Complex, California

A high-grade blueschist tectonic block from the Franciscan Complexof the northeast Diablo Range shows evidence of three episodesof retrograde blueschist facies metamorphism ± deformationdeveloped under progressively declining P-T conditions. Thefirst retrograde metamorphism involved formation of an outerrind of actinolite + chlorite + rutile ± phengite, andthe growth of coarse-grained chlorite + pumpellyite within theblock. During the second event the rind and outer edge of theblueschist were folded, sheared and fractured, and primary glaucophanewithin the blueschist was replaced by albite, medium-grainedchlorite, and glaucophane-crossite. The third retrograde metamorphismwas marked by the pseudomorphic replacement of rind actinoliteby aragonite and quartz. Aragonite also crystallized extensivelywithin th block, accompanied by lawsonite, chlorite, jadeiticpyroxene, and crossite; this last mineral assemblage is identicalto that of the surrounding Franciscan metasedimentary rocks.Features characteristic of the first and second retrograde metamorphicevents are readily observed in other high-grade tectonic blocksof the Franciscan Complex and the correlative Otter Point Formationof Oregon. In contrast, evidence of a third retrograde metamorphism,matching that of presently associated Franciscan and Otter Pointrocks, has been found in some but not all blocks examined sofar. The high P/T conditions of prograde metamorphism and the availablemetamorphic age determinations suggest that the tectonic blocksoriginally formed in a pre-Franciscan subduction zone setting.Fragments of blueschist and eclogite from this metamorphic terrainwere tectonically incorporated in a serpentinite diapir, andthey developed alteration rinds through interaction with theenclosing ultramafic rock. The available data suggest that theexamined exotic block and at least some others were transferredto the Franciscan as detritus from a body of serpentinite thatreached the earth's surface. Such blocks were then resubductedand metamorphosed along with their presently associated sedimentarysequences.     

INVERSION OF AN UNMIGRATED STACKED SECTION TO DETERMINE AN INTERVAL VELOCITY MODEL*

A seismic inversion procedure is developed that inverts data available from an unmigrated stacked section to produce an interval velocity model. It attempts to overcome some of the limitations of existing methods by using a generalized linear inversion technique. The inversion process incorporates several features: (i) Lateral interval velocity variations are permitted, (ii) A fast accurate forward model was developed, (iii) Input data is weighted according to the accuracy with which it has been acquired. The procedure is applied to seismic data from the Gippsland Basin, an area offshore South-East Australia.     

Fine structure of a Greenland reverse tip jet: a numerical simulation

Reverse tip jets are strong low-level winds with easterly component that form near the southern tip of Greenland. In the present study, a reverse tip jet case which occurred from 21 to 22 December 2000 was examined to clarify its fine structure using a numerical model with a horizontal resolution of 3 km. The reverse tip jet, showing the supergeostrophic wind speed with a maximum wind speed in excess of 45 m s⁻¹, extended from the east coast of Greenland to the west of Cape Farewell with anticyclonic curvature. A cloud free region coincided with the jet indicated that there was a mesoscale downdraft. Along the eastern edge of the jet, a banded cloud formed between the upstream easterly wind and the colder northerly wind that is a part of the jet and is located along the east coast. This cloud was associated with large gradients in surface wind speed, temperature, moisture, and heat flux. A maximum surface total heat flux of 300 W m⁻² coincided with the location of the jet. It is suggested that the orographic deflection by Greenland's large-scale topography as well as small-scale downslope winds behind mountains with fiords causes the reverse tip jet.     

Binary interactions between polar lows

In this study, the movement of polar lows is addressed from a novel and perspicuous viewpoint. The usual assumption has been that these mesoscale systems are, to a first approximation, advected by the larger scale flow in which they are embedded. However, when there are two or more polar lows in the same vicinity, binary interactions between pairs of polar lows can cause a cyclonic co-rotation of the pair. In geographic coordinates these interactions can appear as unusual loops, twists and turns in the low tracks, due to the interplay between the cyclonic co-rotation and the translation of the binary pair by the ambient flow. However when the tracks are replotted in centroid relative coordinates, a mutual rotation is unmistakable. Satellite imagery from several case studies has been examined to accurately determine the polar low tracks, and thus the co-rotations. Using surface wind observations, a theoretical rotation rate can be estimated, based on barotropic vortex dynamics. There is a good correspondence between the observed and calculated rotation rates. Recognizing the existence of binary interactions between polar lows emphasises the connection between polar lows and tropical cyclones, where binary interactions have been described in several studies. Indeed, in the cases studied here, binary interactions are strongest during the secondary (convective) stage of polar low development where the lows are somewhat analogous to arctic hurricanes.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 × CO₂ atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3–5°C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be ameliorated. Recommendations for future monitoring efforts include: (1) extending and improving data on the distribution, abundance and effect of anthropogenic stressors (non-point pollution) within the region; and (2) improving scientific knowledge regarding the contemporary distribution and abundance of aquatic species. Research recommendations include: (1) establishing a research centre(s) where field studies designed to understand interactions between freshwater ecosystems and climate change can be conducted; (2) projecting the future distribution, activities and direct effects of humans within the region; (3) developing mathematical analyses, experimental designs and aquatic indicators that distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic effects on aquatic systems; (4) developing and refining projections of climate variability such that the magnitude, frequency and seasonal timing of extreme events can be forecast; and (5) describing quantitatively the flux of materials (sediments, nutrients, metals) from watersheds characterized by a mosaic of land uses. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.