Spatial and temporal trends of dust storms across desert regions of Iran

Dust storms are among natural and anthropogenic hazards for socioeconomic resources, especially in desert regions. In recent years, dust storms have become a serious problem, especially in desert regions of Iran. This study investigates temporal and spatial variation of dust storm frequency in desert regions of Iran. The number of dusty days (NDD) are collected from 22 stations across the region. The statistical analysis of NDD time series is carried out to show both spatial and seasonal pattern of dust storm occurrence in the region. The regional map of statistical characteristics indicates a north to south increasing dust storm frequency. The spatial map also reveals higher year-to-year variation in south eastern Iran. The seasonality of NDD shows the highest frequency for summer followed by the spring and autumn seasons. The popular Mann–Kendall and the bootstrap MK test to consider serial correlation are then applied for Trend assessment. Results showed both negative (across the north and northwestern regions) and positive trend (across south and south eastern regions) in the annual and seasonal NDD time series. This north-to-south gradient in the spatial and temporal frequency NDD may arise from harsh dry and gusty winds as well as intense land use change in the south eastern territories of Iran. However, more careful and detailed studies are required to connect environmental conditions to change in NDD frequency.     

Hydrodynamic Tidal Model of the Persian Gulf Based on Spatially Variable Bed Friction Coefficient

The aim of this study is to develop a two-dimensional hydrodynamic tidal model for the Persian Gulf (PG2017) using 2D-MIKE21 software. The advantages of present study is accounting for the spatial variation of bed friction coefficient besides a precise bathymetry together with a 23-year of combined records of satellite altimetry data. We found that the bed friction coefficient has a significant effect on sea level changes in the region under our modeling consideration. Since the tidal behavior in the northern part of the Qeshm Island is significantly different from the other parts of the Persian Gulf, to present a more accurate hydrodynamic tidal model, the Gulf is divided into two regions where the bed friction coefficient is modeled separately for each region. The root mean square value of the differences between the amplitude of dominant constituents; M2, S2, K1, and O1 derived from the PG2017 model and that of 98 altimetry and coastal tide gauge stations are respectively equal to 1.6, 1.9, 2.8, and 1.3?cm. Moreover, comparing the PG2017 model efficiency with the FES2014, OSU12, EOT11a, DTU10, and Admiralty models shows that the PG2017 model has an improvement of 22.1%, 47.2%, 43.2%, 44.2%, and 57.6% in terms of relative error, respectively.     

Uncertainty in modelling of faecal coliform overland transport associated with manure application in Maryland

Concerns for microbial safety of surface water facilitate development of predictive models that estimate concentrations and total numbers of pathogen and indicator organisms leaving manure‐fertilized fields in overland flow during runoff events. Spatial variability of bacterial concentrations in applied manure introduces high uncertainty in the model predictions. The objective of this work was to evaluate the uncertainty in model predictions of the manure‐borne bacteria overland transport caused by limited information on the spatial distribution of bacteria in surface‐applied manure. Experiments were carried out at the ARS Beltsville experimental watershed site (OPE3) in Maryland. Dairy bovine manure was applied at a 59·3 t/ha rate on the 3·55 hectare experimental field. Faecal coliform (FC) concentrations in manure measured in 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2009 varied by 4 orders of magnitude each year. Both runoff volume and FC concentrations in runoff water were monitored using a runoff flume equipped with a refrigerated pump sampler. Two runoff events occurred before the manure was incorporated into the soil. A bacteria transport add‐on module simulator of transport with infiltration and runoff (STWIR) was linked with the event‐based kinematic runoff and erosion model (KINEROS2) to simulate convective‐dispersive overland transport, bacteria release from manure, reversible attachment–detachment to soil, and surface straining of infiltrating bacteria. The model was successfully calibrated with the field experiment data. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out to account for the spatial variation in FC in applied manure and uncertainty in the FC distribution in manure caused by the small number of samples. A tenfold and twofold variation in FC concentrations in the runoff were obtained within the 90% probability interval when initial FC spatial distributions in the manure were represented by 5 and 29 samples, respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A bias-free geodetic boundary value problem approach to height datum unification

A geodetic boundary value problem (GBVP) approach has been formulated which can be used for solving the problem of height datum unification. The developed technique is applied to a test area in Southwest Finland with approximate size of 1.5° × 3° and the bias of the corresponding local height datum (local geoid) with respect to the geoid is computed. For this purpose the bias-free potential difference and gravity difference observations of the test area are used and the offset (bias) of the height datum, i.e., Finnish Height Datum 2000 (N2000) fixed to Normaal Amsterdams Peil (NAP) as origin point, with respect to the geoid is computed. The results of this computation show that potential of the origin point of N2000, i.e., NAP, is (62636857.68 ± 0.5) (m²/s²) and as such is (0.191 ± 0.003) (m) under the geoid defined by W ₀ = 62636855.8 (m²/s²). As the validity test of our methodology, the test area is divided into two parts and the corresponding potential difference and gravity difference observations are introduced into our GBVP separately and the bias of height datums of the two parts are computed with respect to the geoid. Obtaining approximately the same bias values for the height datums of the two parts being part of one height datum with one origin point proves the validity of our approach. Besides, the latter test shows the capability of our methodology for patch-wise application.     

Latitudinal and Longitudinal Variations of Earth’s Magnetic Force on Electrified Hydrometeors

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - In this study, a hypothesis is proposed about the possible effect of Geomagnetic field (GMF) on the charge structure of a thundercloud based on Lorentz force equation...     

Static and dynamic analysis on slope stability using a DFN-DEM approach on the right abutment of the Karun 4 dam

Uncertainty in input fracture geometric parameters during analysis of the stability of jointed rock slopes is inevitable and therefore the stochastic discrete fracture network (DFN) — distinct element method (DEM) is an efficient modeling tool. In this research, potentially unstable conditions are detected in the right abutment of the Karun 4 dam and downstream of the dam body as a case study. Two extreme states with small and relatively large block sizes are selected and a series of numerical DEM models are generated using a number of validated DFN models. Stability of the rock slope is assessed in both static and dynamic loading states. Based on the design basis earthquake (DBE) and maximum credible earthquake (MCE) expected in the dam site, histories of seismic waves are applied to analyze the stability of the slope in dynamic earthquake conditions. The results indicate that a MCE is likely to trigger sliding of rock blocks on the rock slope major joint. Furthermore, the dynamic analysis also shows a local block failure by the DBE, which can consequently lead to slope instability over the long term. According to the seismic behavior of the two models, larger blocks are prone to greater instability and are less safe against earthquakes.