Spatially filtered ridge regression (SFRR): A regression framework to understanding impacts of land cover patterns on urban climate

Understanding the impacts of land cover pattern on the heat island effect is essential for sustainable urban development. Conventional model fitting methods have restricted ability to produce accurate estimates of the land cover‐temperature association due to the lack of procedures to address two important issues: spatial dependence in proximal spatial units and high correlations among predictor variables. In this study, we seek to develop an effective framework called spatially filtered ridge regression (SFRR) to estimate the variations in the quantity and distribution of land surface temperature (LST) in response to various land cover patterns. The SFRR effectively integrates spatial autoregressive models and ridge regression, and it achieves reliable parameter estimates with substantially reduced mean square errors. We show this by comparing the performance of the SFRR to other widely adopted models using Monte Carlo simulation followed by an empirical study over central Phoenix. Results highlight the great potential of the SFRR in producing accurate statistical estimates, providing a positive step toward informed and unbiased decision‐making across a wide variety of disciplines. (Code and data to reproduce the results in the case study are available at: https://github.com/cfan13/SFRRTGIS.git .)     

Experimental survey of the hydrodynamic performance of a small spar buoy

The objective in this experimental work is to evaluate the capability of several cylindrical buoys to follow and measure waves. Eleven configurations have been studied, eight among which were furnished with disks of different diameters at the waterline. The experiments took place in the test basin at ISITV. On the one hand, we have obtained a set of transfer coefficients for each frequency and each configuration in regular waves. On the other hand, we have determined the corresponding transfer functions, then we have used the latter to measure irregular waves. The time signals as measured by the buoys with and without corrections have been compared with wave gage measurements and subjected to a wave-by-wave analysis. The results allow the conclusion that the buoy with a medium size disk constitutes the best compromise. In fact, it permits the buoy to follow the free surface while minimizing parasitic motions.     

On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

Natural Hazards - This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of...     

Wind-forced circulation model and water exchanges through the channel in the Bay of Toulon

A hydrodynamic model of the Bay of Toulon has been developed for use as a post-accident radionuclide dispersion simulation tool. Located in a Mediterranean urban area, the Bay of Toulon is separated into two basins by a 1.4-km long seawall. The Little Bay is semi-enclosed and connected to the Large Bay by a fairway channel. This channel is the site of significant water mass exchange as a result of both wind-driven currents and bathymetry. It is therefore a focal point for marine contamination. As part of the model calibration and validation process, the first step consisted of studying the water mass exchange between the two basins. An Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler was moored in the channel for 1 year. The present study analyses in situ data to determine the current intensity and direction, and also to better understand the vertical current profile, which is highly correlated with meteorological forcing. Comparisons of model-generated and measured data are presented, and various atmospheric forcing datasets are used to enhance computed results. It appears that accurate meteorological forcing data is needed to enhance the accuracy of the hydrodynamic model. This channel is an important location for water mass renewal in the Bay of Toulon, and model results are used to quantify these exchanges. The mean calculated annual water exchange time is approximately 3.4 days. However, this duration is strongly wind dependent and shortens during windy winter months. It ranges from 1.5 days during strong wind periods to 7.5 days during calm weather. Residence time values calculated through tracer dispersion modelling after release at the back of the Little Bay are found to be comparable to the mean exchange time values, especially for windy conditions.     

Mountain Protection Forests against Natural Hazards and Risks: New French Developments by Integrating Forests in Risk Zoning

Forests can play a very significant role in protection against natural hazards and risks in mountain lands, especially against erosion and rockfalls. This paper first assesses knowledge concerning the capacity of forests to control natural hazards, with emphasis placed on forest location in catchments or slopes. Zoning aspects are then presented; based on the use of GIS, they allow determining priorities for forestry operations (cuts and biological engineering), in view to setting up an 'optimal management' of mountain forest ecosystems. Finally, an explanation is given of how the results of research are used for the management and planning of mountain ecosystems, illustrated by an example of researcher-practitioner transfer in France. Zoning, prevention, display and regular aspects are developed. On the basis of the experience and knowledge presented here, recommendations are proposed to better take into account the role of mountain forests in the control of natural hazards and risks. It is necessary to have an adapted legislative and economic framework, define priority forest intervention zones and determine an adapted sylviculture.     

Preliminary Interlaboratory Trial for ISO/DIS 12010: Determination of Short Chain Polychlorinated Alkanes (SCCP) in Water

A first preliminary interlaboratory trial was planned to prepare ISO/DIS 12010: Water quality – determination of short chain polychlorinated alkanes (SCCP) in water – method using GC/MS and electron capture negative ionisation (ECNI). The task was to determine the sum of short chain polychlorinated n‐alkanes with carbon chain lengths of C₁₀–C₁₃ and a chlorine content between 49 and 67% in water by GC‐ECNI‐MS and quantification by multiple linear regression described in ISO/DIS 12010 as the compulsory method. Distributed samples were obtained from a real water extract spiked with a target concentration of 0.4 µg/mL sum of SCCP, i.e. the environmental quality target level according to the Water Framework Directive. The interlaboratory trial included the calibration, a column chromatographic clean up, a concentration step and an integration of chromatographic unresolved humps as well as the quantification with multiple linear regression. Reproducibility standard deviations between 21.5 and 22.9% were achieved by 17 participating laboratories from four countries. The method outlined no significant difference of the results between the standard solution and a real water matrix extract. On the basis of this succeeded preliminary interlaboratory trial the final interlaboratory trial for validation of ISO 12010 was prepared in autumn 2010.     

Numerical relationships between magnetic parameters measured in Quaternary sediments and global paleoclimatic proxies

The complexity of most geological and geophysical problems prompts sometimes the use of non linear mathematical methods to handle them. An adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) that combines fuzzy logic with neural networks, is applied here to study a paleoclimate section from the Quaternary sedimentary fill of the Lake Mucubají (western Venezuela). The purpose of this work is to find a set of numerical relationships that could predict the possible connections between oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) values from two different locations in the northern hemisphere (Ammersee in southern Germany and an ice core from the Greenland Ice Core Project — GRIP) and rock-magnetic parameters measured in Mucubají samples (i.e. mass-specific magnetic susceptibility — χ, magnetic remanence S-ratio, mass-specific saturation isothermal remanent magnetization — SIRM and anhysteretic remanent magnetization — ARM). The best inferences in terms of coefficient of determionation R² and the Root Mean-Square Error (RMSE) are obtained using those magnetic data as input that include information about magnetite grain size distributions, e.g., SIRM and ARM in FIS structures [1χ, 4ARM] and [4ARM, 1SIRM]. A comparison between Ammersee and GRIP actual data, as well as their corresponding inferences for the FIS structure [4ARM, 1SIRM], reveals a reasonable good inference of global trends for both records, overlooking the regional and/or local paleoclimate forcings that might have affected Ammersee. A better correlation between global isotope paleoclimate records and magnetic proxies, is perhaps prevented by the role played by local and regional paleoclimate and tectonism in Mucubají. We also argue that the ratio of ARM over SIRM appears to be related in a complex way to the onset and to the end of the Younger Dryas. Our novel approach to the assessment of a specific paleoclimate case study shows the potential of the ANFIS technique in solving problems where traditional univariate and multivariate linear regression methods could prove inadequate.     

Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies

For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). This paper reviews seven National Adaptation Strategies that were either formally adopted or under development by Member States at the end of 2008. The strategies are analysed under the following six themes. Firstly, the factors motivating and facilitating the development of a national adaptation strategy. Secondly, the scientific and technical support needed for the development and implementation of such a strategy. Thirdly, the role of the strategy in information, communication and awareness-raising of the adaptation issue. Fourthly, new or existing forms of multi-level governance to implement the proposed actions. Fifthly, how the strategy addresses integration and coordination with other policy domains. Finally, how the strategy suggests the implementation and how the strategy is evaluated. The paper notes that the role of National Adaptation Strategies in the wider governance of adaptation differs between countries but clearly benchmarks a new political commitment to adaptation at national policy levels. However, we also find that in most cases approaches for implementing and evaluating the strategies are yet to be defined. The paper concludes that even though the strategies show great resemblance in terms of topics, methods and approaches, there are many institutional challenges, including multi-level governance and policy integration issues, which can act as considerable barriers in future policy implementation.     

Macroinvertebrate associations on the egg masses of the sea hare,Aplysia brasiliana rang (Gastropoda: Opisthobranchia)

We examined the assemblage of macroinvertebrates that inhabits the egg masses of the sea hareAplysia brasiliana Rang. A total of 3,721 individuals belonging to 31 invertebrate species was recovered from 107 egg masses collected in the Indian River Lagoon in east-central Florida. The egg mass associates appeared to be a subset of the surrounding faunal assemblage. Amphipods, polychaetes, and molluscs comprised the majority of the egg mass fauna. Of these, approximately 10 species were abundant, and were collected with high frequency in the egg masses examined. Association analysis of the distribution patterns of the more common species indicates that only positive first order effects and second order interactions were potentially important in this assemblage.