Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Calcareous nannoplankton, planktonic foraminiferal, and carbonate carbon isotope stratigraphy of the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary section in the Ultrahelvetic Zone (Eastern Alps, Upper Austria)

Ultrahelvetic units of the Eastern Alps were deposited on the distal European continental margin of the (Alpine) Tethys. The Rehkogelgraben section (“Buntmergelserie”, Ultrahelvetic unit, Upper Austria) comprises a 5 m thick succession of upper Cenomanian marl-limestone cycles overlain by a black shale interval composed of three black shale layers and carbonate-free claystones, followed by lower Turonian white to light grey marly limestones with thin marl layers. The main biostratigraphic events in the section are the last occurrence of Rotalipora and the first occurrences of Helvetoglobotruncana helvetica and Quadrum gartneri. The thickest black shale horizon has a TOC content of about 5%, with predominantly marine organic matter of kerogen type II. Vitrinite reflectance and Rock-Eval parameter T_max (<424 °C) indicate low maturity. HI values range from 261 to 362 mg HC/g TOC. δ¹³C values of bulk rock carbonates display the well documented positive shift around the black shale interval, allowing correlation of the Rehkogelgraben section with other sections such as the Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) succession at Pueblo, USA, and reference sections at Eastbourne, UK, and Gubbio, Italy. Sediment accumulation rates at Rehkogelgraben (average 2.5 mm/ka) are significantly lower than those at Pueblo and Eastbourne.     

Groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling at an air weapons range

Numerical modelling was done at the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range, Canada, to test whether the dissolved RDX and nitrate detected in groundwater come from the same sources, and to predict whether contamination poses a threat to the surface water receptors near the site. Military live fire training activities may indeed pose a risk of contamination to groundwater resources, however field investigations on military bases are quite recent, and little information is available on the long-term behaviour of munition residues related contaminants. Very limited information was available about the contaminant source zones, which were assigned based on our knowledge of current training activities. The RDX plume was well represented with the model, but the heterogeneous distribution of nitrate concentrations was more difficult to reproduce. It was nonetheless determined that both contaminants originate from the same areas. According to the model, both contaminants should reach the nearby river, but concentrations in the river should remain very low if the source zone concentration does not change. Finally, the model allowed the recommendation of a new location for the main bombing target, which would offer added protection to the river and the lake into which it flows.     

Die Windverhältnisse im Davoser Hochtal

Zusammenfassung Die Davoser Windverh?ltnisse werden in ihrem tages- und jahreszeitlichen Ablauf sowie in ihrer Abh?ngigkeit von verschiedenen typischen Wetterlagen untersucht. Neben den ungest?rten Sch?nwetterlagen mit ihrem ausgepr?gten Talwind, der wie der Malojawind talabw?rts weht, werden die F?hnstr?mung aus Südwest und die Nordoststr?mung bei Staulagen und Bise kurz besprochen. Gegenüber dem benachbarten Dischmatal zeigt sich ein sp?terer Beginn des Talwindes bei Sch?nwetterlagen, w?hrend im Vergleich zu anderen T?lern, z. B. zum Wallis, ein früheres und schw?cheres nachmitt?gliches Windmaximum auftritt.

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Summary The wind at Davos is analysed in his diurnal and annual variation and in the depence on the different weather types. The fair and undisturbed weather shows a typical valley breeze during the day, but not in the normal direction towards the higher part of the valley, but downstream, similar to the Malojawind in the Engadine. The opposite wind direction, from southwest, characterises the foehn-situation. Northeasterly winds develop in the case of higher pressure north of the Alps (e. g. in situations of barrage). The valley-breeze begins later than in the adjacent Dischma Valley, but it is weaker and reaches the highest intensity earlier than in other valleys, as e. g. in the Valais.

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Résumé Les vents de Davos sont analysés selon leurs variations diurnes et annuelles et selon des types de temps caractéristiques. La situation de beau temps montre un vent de vallée assez accentué, soufflant du haut en bas, donc dans une direction anormale, mais analogue au vent de la Maloja en Engadine. En cas de ?foehn? le vent souffle du sud-ouest tandis qu'un vent du nord-est se manifeste par situations de surpression au nord des Alpes. Le vent de vallée se met à souffler plus tard à Davos que dans la vallée de Dischma toute proche. Il y atteint par contre sa vitesse maximale plus t?t que les vents correspondants d'autres vallées p. ex. du Valais. Le maximum y est cependant moins élevé.

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Mit 6 Textabbildungen

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Herrn Dr.W. M?rikofer zu seinem 70. Geburtstag gewidmet.     

Continental slope sedimentation adjacent to an ice margin I. Seismic facies of Labrador Slope

Sleeve-gun, 3.5-kHz, and 12-kHz profiles from the Labrador Slope provide the basis for an analysis of sedimentary facies, processes, and evolution of a continental slope adjacent to an ice margin. The upper slope is deeply incised by numerous canyons reflecting headward canyon branching. The less rugged middle-slope topography has fewer canyons and large slide and slump scars followed downslope by debris-flow deposits. Echo character of seismic profiles reflects the difference in sediment types supplied from mud-dominated sources and sand-, gravel- and till-dominated sources. On the rise, debris-flow deposits are largely confined to canyons. Intercanyon areas are dominated by spill-over turbidites alternating with hemipelagic sediments, which on some of the southern to southwestern levees occur in sediment-wave fields formerly attributed to bottom-current activity.     

Ozone production due to emissions from vegetation burning

Ozone has been observed in elevated concentrations by satellites over areas previously believed to be background. There is meteorological evidence, that these ozone plumes found over the Atlantic Ocean originate from vegetation fires on the African continent.In a previous study (DECAFE-88), we have investigated ozone and assumed precursor compounds over African tropical forest regions. Our measurements revealed large photosmog layers at altitudes from 1.5 to 4 km. Both chemical and meteorological evidence point to savanna fires up to several thousand km upwind as sources.Here we describe ozone mixing ratios observed over western Africa and compare ozone production ratios from different field measurement campaigns related to vegetation burning. We find that air masses containing photosmog ingredients require several days to develop their oxidation potential, similar to what is known from air polluted by emissions from fossil fuel burning. Finally, we estimate the global ozone production due to vegetation fires and conclude that this source is comparable in strength to the stratospheric input.     

Analysis of COMPTEL gamma-ray burst locations and spectra

In its first three years of operation, the COMPTEL instrument on theCompton Gamma-Ray Observatory has measured the locations (mean accuracy 1°) and spectra (0.75-30 MeV) of 18 gamma-ray bursts and continues to observe new events at a rate of 1/month. With good angular resolution and sensitivity at MeV energies, the growing COMPTEL burst catalog is an important new piece of evidence in the on-going GRB mystery. The COMPTEL burst locations are consistent with an isotropic distribution of sources, yet the spatial coincidence of two of the bursts indicates the possibility of repetition. The COMPTEL burst spectra are in most cases consistent with a single power law model with spectral index in the range 2–3. However, two bursts show evidence of a spectral break in the MeV range. Measurement of rapid variability at MeV energies in the stronger bursts provides evidence that either the sources are nearby (within the Galaxy) or the gamma-ray emission is relativistically beamed. We present an overview of analysis results obtained from the COMPTEL burst catalog concentrating on the search for burst repetition and the implications of highly variable MeV emission.     

Coalescing neutron stars as gamma ray bursters?

We investigate the dynamics and evolution of coalescing neutron stars. The three-dimensional Newtonian equations of hydrodynamics are integrated by the Piecewise Parabolic Method on an equidistant Cartesian grid. The code is purely Newtonian, but does include the emission of gravitational waves and their back-reaction. The properties of neutron star matter are described by the equation of state of Lattimer and Swesty (1991). Energy loss by all types of neutrinos and changes of the electron fraction due to the emission of electron neutrinos and antineutrinos are taken into account by an elaborate neutrino leakage scheme. We simulate the coalescence of two identical, cool neutron stars with a baryonic mass of 1.6M and a radius of 15 km and with an initial center-to-center distance of 42 km. The initial distributions of density and electron concentration are given from a model of a cold neutron star in hydrostatic equilibrium. We investigate three cases which differ by the initial velocity distribution in the neutron stars. The orbit decays due to gravitational-wave emission and after one revolution the stars are so close that dynamical instability sets in. Within 1 ms the neutron stars merge into a rapidly spinning (P 1 ms), high-density body ( 10¹⁴ g/cm³) with a surrounding thick disk of material with densities 10¹⁰ – 10¹² g/cm³ and orbital velocities of 0.3-0.5 c. The peak emission of gravitational waves has a maximum luminosity of a few times 10⁵⁵ erg/s and is reached for about 1 ms. The amplitudes of the gravitational waves are close to 3 10^–23 at a distance of 1 Gpc and the typical frequency is near the dynamical value of the orbital motion of the merging neutron stars of 2 KHz. In a post-processing step, the rate of neutrino-antineutrino annihilation is calculated from the neutrino luminosities generated during the hydrodynamical simulations. We find the integral annihilation rate to be a few 10⁵⁰ erg/s during the phase of strongest neutrino emission, which is too small to generate the observed bursts considering the fact that the merged object of about 3M will most likely collapse to a black hole within milliseconds.     

Phosphine absorption in the 5-μm window of Jupiter

Since the original suggestion by Gillett et al. (1969) it has generally been assumed that the region of partial transparency near 5 μm in Jupiter's atmosphere (the 5-μm window) is bounded by the v₄ NH₃ at 6.1 μm and the v₃ CH₄ band at 3.3 μm. New measurements of Jupiter and of laboratory phosphine (PH₃) samples show that PH₃ is a significant contributor to the continuum opacity in the window and in fact defines its short-wavelength limit. This has important implications for the use of 5-mu;m observations as a means to probe the deep atmospheric structure of Jupiter. The abundance of PH₃ which results from a comparison of Jovian and laboratory spectra is about 3 to 5 cm-am. This is five to eight times less than that found by Larson et al. [Astrophys. J. (1977) 211, 972–979] in the same spectral region, but is in good agreement with the result of Tokunaga et al. [Astrophys. J. (1979) 232, 603–615] from 10-μm observations.     

Coalification and thermal histories of Tertiary basins in relation to late Alpidic evolution of the Eastern Alps

The thermal histories of Tertiary basins situated around and within the Eastern Alps are examined using coalification data.Waples' method is used to estimate paleogeothermal conditions. The data suggest that the basins' thermal histories are intimately related to late Alpidic geodynamics of the Eastern Alps.Basins situated near the thrust front (Eastern Alpine foredeep, Vienna basin) are characterized by hypothermal histories and low coalification gradients. This is a consequence of relatively thick crust, high paleosedimentation rates in the Alpine foredeep, and Oligocene to Early Miocene stacking of cool sediments along the southern margin of the Eastern Alpine foredeep. Extension in the Vienna basin region is restricted mainly to shallow crustal levels and did not change the thermal pattern beneath the Alpine nappes. Major hyperthermal events of Oligocene age and local coalification maxima in the central Slovenian basin date from magmatic activity along the Periadriatic lineament, caused by Oligocene subduction. In Miocene times subduction migrated eastward and magmatic activity shifted to the northern Slovenian and Styrian basins, resulting in a strong hyperthermal phase of Ottnangian to Lower Badenian age in these basins.Rapid uplift of the Tauern window in the central part of the Eastern Alps, due to buoyancy, is related to E-W directed crustal stretching and resulted in raised heat flow in Miocene times in the Tauern window region, and in relatively high rank in adjacent Tertiary basins (Wagrain, Tamsweg).Present geothermal patterns are controlled primarily by raised heat flow along the south-eastern margin of the Alps, a consequence of thinned crust beneath the Pannonian basin.

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Zusammenfassung Die Inkohlungsbilder von tertiären Sedimentbecken, die im Bereich der Ostalpen situiert sind, werden hinsichtlich der thermischen Geschichte diskutiert. In einigen Becken erfolgt eine Abschätzung der paläogeothermischen Verhältnisse mit Hilfe derWaples-Methode. Die Inkohlungsbilder der Tertiärbecken belegen eine enge Beziehung zwischen der thermischen Geschichte dieser Becken und der jungalpidischen Geodynamik der Ostalpen.In der Nähe der Überschiebungsfront gelegene Becken (Molassebecken, Wiener Becken) werden durch hypothermische Verhältnisse und geringe Inkohlung charakterisiert. Dies ist eine Folge relativ dicker Kruste, hoher Paläo-Sedimentationsraten in der alpinen Vortiefe und des Übereinanderstapelns kühler Sedimente am Südrand des Molassebeckens während Oligozän und frühem Miozän. Die Extension im Wiener Becken war auf den obersten Krustenabschnitt beschränkt und hat die thermischen Verhältnisse unterhalb der alpinen Decken nicht beeinflußt.Die magmatische Aktivität entlang der Periadriatischen Naht steht in Zusammenhang mit der oligozänen Subduktion und ist für hyperthermische Ereignisse und lokale Inkohlungsmaxima in oligozänen Sedimenten des zentralen Slowenischen Beckens verantwortlich. Im Miozän wanderte die Subduktion ostwärts und die magmatische Aktivität verlagerte sich in das nördliche Slowenische und Steirische Becken. Dadurch wurde in diesen Becken eine starke hyperthermische Phase während Ottnang bis Unterbaden initiiert.Der rasche isostatische Aufstieg des Tauernfensters in den zentralen Ostalpen steht mit miozäner, E-W gerichteter Dehnungstektonik in Zusammenhang. Er ist für erhöhten Wärmefluß im Miozän im Bereich des Tauernfensters und für die relativ hohe Inkohlung des Wagrainer und Tamsweger Beckens verantwortlich.Die heutigen geothermischen Verhältnisse werden vor allem durch erhöhten Wärmefluß am Südostrand der Alpen geprägt. Dieser ist eine Folge der Krustenausdünnung unter dem Pannonischen Becken.

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Résumé La houillification des bassins sédimentaires tertiaires des Alpes orientales est discutée dans la perspective de leur histoire thermique. Les conditions paléogéothermiques sont estimées au moyen de la méthode deWaples. L'étude de la houillification de ces bassins montre une relation étroite entre leur histoire thermique et la géodynamique des Alpes orientales à la fin du Tertiaire.Ces bassins, situés à proximité du front de charriage — il sagit du Bassin molassique et du Bassin viennois —, se caractérisent par leur condition «hypothermique» et leur faible gradient de houillification; cette propriété provient de l'épaississement de la croute terrestre due à une sédimentation rapide en avant des Alpes et à l'empilement tectonique des sédiments froids les uns sur les autres le long de la bordure méridionale du Bassin molassique au cours de l'Oligocène et du Miocène inférieur. L'extension, dans la région du Bassin viennois, s'est limitée à un niveau crustal peu profond et n'a pas influencé la situation thermique dans les nappes alpines.L'activité magmatique le long du linéament périadriatique, due à la subduction oligocène, est contemporaine des événements «hyperthermiques» et des maxima locaux de houillification dans les sédiments oligocènes du bassin central de Slovénie.Pendant le Miocène, la subduction progressa vers l'est et l'activité magmatique se déplaça vers les bassins de Slovénie septentrionale et de Styrie, avec comme conséquence, dans ces bassins, une phase «hyperthermique» marquée à l'Ottnangien et au Badenien inférieur.La montée isostatique rapide de la Fenêtre des Tauern dans la partie centrale des Alpes orientales est en relation avec l'extension tectonique est-ouest au Miocène; elle est responsable d'un flux thermique élevé dans la région de la Fenêtre et d'une houillification relativement importante dans les bassins tertiaires adjacents de Wagrain et de Tamsweg.La géothermie actuelle de la bordure sud-est des Alpes est régie par un flux thermique élevé, conséquence de l'amincissement crustal sous le bassin Pannonique.

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