Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections

We analyze changes of four extreme hydroclimatic indices in the RCP8.5 projections of the Phase I CREMA experiment, which includes 21st century projections over 5 CORDEX domains (Africa, Central America, South America, South Asia, Mediterranean) with the ICTP regional model RegCM4 driven by three CMIP5 global models. The indices are: Heat Wave Day Index (HWD), Maximum Consecutive Dry Day index (CDD), fraction of precipitation above the 95th intensity percentile (R95) and Hydroclimatic Intensity index (HY-INT). Comparison with coarse (GPCP) and high (TRMM) resolution daily precipitation data for the present day conditions shows that the precipitation intensity distributions from the GCMs are close to the GPCP data, while the RegCM4 ones are closer to TRMM, illustrating the added value of the increased resolution of the regional model. All global and regional model simulations project predominant increases in HWD, CDD, R95 and HY-INT, implying a regime shift towards more intense, less frequent rain events and increasing risk of heat wave, drought and flood with global warming. However, the magnitudes of the changes are generally larger in the global than the regional models, likely because of the relatively low “climate sensitivity” of the RegCM4, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. In addition, pronounced regional differences in the change signals are found. The data from these simulations are available for use in impact assessment studies.     

A new method for specular and diffuse pseudorange multipath error extraction using wavelet analysis

Multipath remains one of the major challenges in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning because it is considered the dominant source of ranging errors, which can be classified into specular and diffuse types. We present a new method using wavelets to extract the pseudorange multipath in the time domain and breaking it down into the two components. The main idea is an analysis-reconstruction approach based on application of both continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and discrete wavelet transform (DWT). The proposed procedure involves the use of L1 code-minus-carrier (CMC) observable where higher-frequency terms are isolated as residuals. CMC residuals are analyzed by applying the CWT, and we propose the scalogram as a technique for discerning time–frequency variations of the multipath signal. Unlike Fourier transform, the potential of the CWT scalogram for examining the non-stationary and multifrequency nature of the multipath is confirmed as it simultaneously allows fine detection and time localization of the most representative frequencies of the signal. This interpretation of the CWT scalogram is relevant when choosing the levels of reconstruction with DWT, allowing accurate time domain extraction of both the specular and diffuse multipath. The performance and robustness of the method and its boundary applicability are assessed. The experiment was carried out using a receiver of Campania GNSS Network. The results are given in which specular multipath error is achieved using DWT level 7 approximation component and diffuse multipath error is achieved using DWT level 6 denoised detail component.     

Chemical and mineralogical characterization of the Mineo (Sicily,Italy) pallasite: A unique sample

The Mineo pallasite is characterized here for the first time. The only 42 g still available worldwide is part of the collection of the Department of Physics and Geology, University of Perugia. A multianalytical approach was used, joining field-emission scanning electron microscopy, Raman analysis, X-ray powder diffraction, electron-probe microanalysis, and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Results highlighted that (1) the Mineo pallasite belongs to the Main Group pallasites; (2) the silicate component is essentially olivine, with no pyroxene component; (3) the olivine chemical composition varies in terms of both iron and trace elements; (4) the metal phase is essentially kamacite with the taenite mainly found in the plessite structure; (5) phosphide phases are present as schreibersite and barringerite. The observed compositional variability in olivines as well as their occurrence as both angular and rounded crystals suggest that the Mineo pallasite could have been derived from a large impact of a differentiated parent body with a larger solid body. The resulting pallasite conglomerate consists of the compositionally different olivines, likely coming from different areas of the same differentiated parent body, and the residual molten Fe-Ni.     

Biochronology and biochron boundaries: A real dilemma or a false problem? An example based on the Pleistocene large mammalian faunas from Italy

Reconstructing the Neogene-Quaternary biostratigraphy in continental environments and recognising ‘boundaries’ between successive mammalian faunal complexes is a problematic task. The definition and application of biochronology has been often tainted by references to and inferences from biostratigraphy. Actually, the discontinuities in the continental sedimentary record, environmental conditions, taphonomic and sampling biases are responsible for the fact that the stratigraphical order of the lowest and highest occurrences of fossil remains (stratigraphic datum) does not necessarily reflect the temporal order of actual first/last appearances of taxa (palaeobiological events) in time. Nonetheless, the first/last appearance bioevents (recorded by lowest/highest occurrences of fossil remains in fossiliferous levels of different continental stratigraphical successions) have been the principal foundation for establishing the biochronological setting of continental mammal faunas. Therefore, from a theoretical point of view, ‘boundaries’ should be defined by the oldest and/or youngest ‘historical occurrence’ of one or more taxa. What about an operational approach?Some examples of the Italian faunas are presented, focusing on the transition from the Villafranchian to the Galerian and from the Galerian to the Aurelian Land-Mammal Ages. The results obtained indicate the difficulty of defining a stable scheme that can be applied for correlation by the international scientific community.     

A statistical model for vesuvius and its volcanological implications

The last 300 years of Vesuvius history are reconstructed as a chronological succession of 4 phenomenological states: i) repose, ii) persistent activity, iii) intermediate eruption and iv) final eruption. It turns out that the times of permanence in each state are distributed according to the same exponential law. Vesuvius activity is then described by a Markov chain of these 4 states, with transition probabilities determined from the previous phenomenological analysis. The model reproduces the Vesuvius activity between 1694 and 1872 and possibly also in the 1872–1944 period. It turns out that, at least between 1694 and 1872, the volcano was behaving like a quasistationary system with 4 equilibrium states, perturbed by a stochastic noise responsible for occasional transitions from an equilibrium state to another. Major physical or structural changes of the volcanic system around 1872 and possibly in the whole subsequent period, are clearly shown by the statistical analysis.     

Some thoughts on the pre-Alpine metamorphic history of the austridic basement of the Eastern Alps

Summary In several places of the old crystalline basement of the Eastern Alps a classification of the pre-Alpine metamorphic effects into an older, high-to intermediate-pressure metamorphism (eclogites, kyanite) and a younger, lower-pressure one (and±ky±cord) is recognizable. Some local geological situations allow a sharp chronological distinction to be made between these two events; and the available radiometric age values demonstrate the Caledonian age (500 m.y.) of the older metamorphism and the Hercynian age (320 m.y.) of the younger one. Elements exist showing that the Caledonian metamorphism, belongs to a complex cycle of geological processes which took place substantially during the Ordivician age (?) and has all the ingredients of the orogenic cycles. This evolutional picture represents a possible model for the whole of the Eastern Alps.

---

Überlegungen zur Entwicklung der voralpidischen Metamorphose im Ostalpin

Zusammenfassung An mehreren Stellen im altkristallinen Grundebirge der Ostalpen ist eine Gliederung der voralpidischen metamorphen Ereignisse in eine ältere Metamorphose, die einer hoch-bis mitteldruckbetonten Faziesserie (Eklogite, Disthen) angehört und eine jüngere weniger druckbetonte Metamorphose (Andalusit±Disthen±Cordierit) erkennbar. Einzelne lokale geologische Situationen erlauben eine scharfe chronologische Trennung dieser zwei Ereignisse; das Caledonische Alter ( 500m.y.) der älteren und das Hercynische Alter ( 320 m.y.) der jüngeren Metamorphose wird durch radiometrische Altersdaten demonstriert. Es gibt Hinweise, daß die Caledonische Metamorphose zu einem komplexen geologischen Ereignis mit allen Kennzeichen eines orogenen Zyklusses gehört, das im wesentlichen während des Ordoviziums stattgefunden hat. Diese genetischen Vorstellungen scheinen als mögliches Modell für die gesamten Ostalpen annehmbar.

---

---

With 3 Figures     

Axial kinematic response of end‐bearing piles to P waves

Kinematic pile–soil interaction under vertically impinging seismic P waves is revisited through a novel continuum elastodynamic solution of the Tajimi type. The proposed model simulates the steady‐state kinematic response of a cylindrical end‐bearing pile embedded in a homogeneous viscoelastic soil stratum over a rigid base, subjected to vertically propagating harmonic compressional waves. Closed‐form solutions are obtained for the following: (i) the displacement field in the soil and along the pile; (ii) the kinematic Winkler moduli (i.e., distributed springs and dashpots) along the pile; (iii) equivalent, depth‐independent, Winkler moduli to match the motion at the pile head. The solution for displacements is expressed in terms of dimensionless transfer functions relating the motion of the pile head to the free‐field surface motion and the rock motion. It is shown that (i) a pile foundation may significantly alter (possibly amplify) the vertical seismic excitation transmitted to the base of a structure and (ii) Winkler moduli pertaining to kinematic loading differ from those for inertial loading. Simple approximate expressions for kinematic Winkler moduli are derived for use in applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delineation of flooding risk hotspots based on digital elevation model,calculated and historical flooding extents: the case of Ouagadougou

Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (T_R), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available.     

Crustal seismic velocity in the Marche region (Central Italy): computation of a minimum 1-D model with seismic station corrections

A 1-D velocity model for the Marche region (Central Italy) was computed by inverting P- and S-wave arrival times of local earthquakes. A total of 160 seismic events with a minimum of ten observations, a travel time residual ≤0.8 s and an azimuthal gap lower than 180° have been selected. This “minimum 1-D velocity model” is complemented by station corrections, which can be used to take into account possible near-surface velocity heterogeneities beneath each station. Using this new P-wave velocity model and the program HYPOELLIPSE (Lahr 1999), the selected local events were relocated. Earthquake locations in this study are of higher quality with respect to the original ones. The obtained minimum 1-D velocity model can be used to improve the routine earthquake locations and represents a further step towards more detailed seismotectonic studies of the area.     

Ground-motion scenarios on Mt. Etna inferred from empirical relations and synthetic simulations

Ground motion scenarios for Mt. Etna are created using synthetic simulations with the program EXSIM. A large data set of weak motion records is exploited to identify important input parameters which govern the modeling of wave propagation effects, such as Q-values, high frequency cut-off and geometrical spreading. These parameters are used in the simulation of ground motion for earthquakes causing severe damage in the area. Two seismotectonic regimes are distinguished. Volcano-tectonic events, though being of limited magnitude (M_max ca. 5), cause strong ground shaking for their shallow foci. Being rather frequent, these events represent a considerable threat to cities and villages on the flanks of the volcano. A second regime is related to earthquakes with foci in the crust, at depths of 10–30 km, and magnitudes ranging from 6 to 7. In our synthetic scenarios, we chose two examples of volcano-tectonic events, i.e. the October 29, 2002, Bongiardo event (I = VIII) and the May 8, 1914, Linera earthquake (I = IX–X). A further scenario regards the February 20, 1818 event, considered representative for stronger earthquakes with foci in the crust. We were able to reproduce the essential features of the macroseismic field, in particular accounting for the possibility of strong site effects. We learned that stress drop estimated for weak motion events is probably too low to explain the intensity of ground motion during stronger earthquakes. This corresponds to findings reported in the literature claiming an increase of stress drop with earthquake size.