What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

Evolutionary Processes in Low-Mass Binary Systems

We consider the evolution of certain low-mass binaries, incorporating models of (a) internal evolution, (b) tidal friction, (c) dynamo activity driven by an elementary α,Ω dynamo, (d) stellar wind driven by the activity, and (e) magnetic braking as a consequence of wind and poloidal dynamo-generated magnetic field. In some circumstances the stellar wind is found to remove mass on a nuclear timescale, as is necessary to explain some observed systems. We can hope that various uncertainties in the model may be clarified by a careful comparison of the models with such observed quantities as rotation periods. These are modified by processes (a), (b) and (e). Assuming that stellar evolution is slow, rotation rate should in some circumstances represent a balance between magnetic braking trying to slow the star down and tidal friction trying to spin it up. Preliminary attempts are promising, but indicate that some fine tuning is necessary. When there is a third body present, in an orbit which is inclined but not necessarily of short period, the eccentricity of a close binary can be strongly modified by ‘Kozai cycles’. We show that this may complicate attempts to account for spin rates of stars in close binaries.     

Nutrient transports in a Swedish estuary

Himmerfjärd is a Swedish estuary bordering on the Baltic. The estuary lacks astronomical tides and its circulation is driven by winds and freshwater runoff. Because of a tertiary sewage treatment plant located at its inner end, the estuary is becoming increasingly eutrophic. A field study was carried out for a 78-day period in late summer and early fall of 1977 to determine rates of nutrient transport and to construct nutrient budgets. Since physical parameters (current velocity, temperature, salinity, winds and water level changes) were measured more frequently than nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, nitrite and ammonium) it was necessary to develop a suitable method to calculate nutrient flux time series and net nutrient fluxes. Over the study period, Himmerfjärd imported phosphorus and exported nitrogen. Direction of nutrient fluxes and changes in flux direction were consistent with the structure of the baroclinic currents.     

Transient‐state groundwater flow in various geometries with wells at arbitrary positions: analytical methods

We have developed a method for analytically solving the porous medium flow equation in many different geometries for horizontal (two‐dimensional), homogeneous and isotropic aquifers containing impermeable boundaries and any number of pumping or injection wells located at arbitrary positions within the system. Solutions and results are presented for rectangular and circular aquifers but the method presented here is easily extendible to many geometries. Results are also presented for systems where constant head boundary conditions can be emulated internal to the aquifer boundary. Recommendations for extensions of the present work are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The X-ray and extreme-ultraviolet flux evolution of SS Cygni throughout outburst

We present the most complete multiwavelength coverage of any dwarf nova outburst: simultaneous optical, Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of SS Cygni throughout a narrow asymmetric outburst. Our data show that the high-energy outburst begins in the X-ray waveband 0.9–1.4 d after the beginning of the optical rise and 0.6 d before the extreme-ultraviolet rise. The X-ray flux drops suddenly, immediately before the extreme-ultraviolet flux rise, supporting the view that both components arise in the boundary layer between the accretion disc and white dwarf surface. The early rise of the X-ray flux shows that the propagation time of the outburst heating wave may have been previously overestimated.
The transitions between X-ray and extreme-ultraviolet dominated emission are accompanied by intense variability in the X-ray flux, with time-scales of minutes. As detailed by Mauche & Robinson, dwarf nova oscillations are detected throughout the extreme-ultraviolet outburst, but we find they are absent from the X-ray light curve.
X-ray and extreme-ultraviolet luminosities imply accretion rates of  3 × 10¹⁵ g s⁻¹  in quiescence,  1 × 10¹⁶ g s⁻¹  when the boundary layer becomes optically thick, and  ∼10¹⁸ g s⁻¹  at the peak of the outburst. The quiescent accretion rate is two and a half orders of magnitude higher than predicted by the standard disc instability model, and we suggest this may be because the inner accretion disc in SS Cyg is in a permanent outburst state.     

Biological and granulometric controls on sedimentary organic matter of an intertidal mudflat

A variety of measures of organic matter concentration and quality were made on samples collected from the top few mm of intertidal mudflat sediment over the course of a year, in order to assess the relative importance of biological and sedimentological influences on sedimentary organic matter. Winter and summer were times of relatively fine-grained sediment accumulation, caused by biological deposition or stabilization processes and resulting in higher organic matter concentrations. Stable carbon isotope and Br:C ratios indicated a planktonic source of bulk organic matter. Ratios of organic carbon to specific surface area of the sediments were consistent with an organic monolayer coverage of sediment grains. Correction for changing grain size during the year showed no change in the organic concentration per unit surface area, in spite of organic matter inputs by in situ primary production, buildup of heterotroph biomass and mucus coatings, and biodeposition of organic-rich seston. There were also no indications of changes in bulk organic quality, measured as hydrolyzable carbohydrates and amino acids, in response to these biological processes. It is concluded that biological processes on a seasonal time scale affect the bulk organic matter of these sediments via a modulation of grain size rather than creation or decay of organic matter.