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1.
J. M. Gregory J. A. Church G. J. Boer K. W. Dixon G. M. Flato D. R. Jackett J. A. Lowe S. P. O'Farrell E. Roeckner G. L. Russell R. J. Stouffer M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240
Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present
an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes
simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario
IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal
expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might
not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout
the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts
to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the
ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as
much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack
of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need
for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.
Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001 相似文献
2.
We present the astrophysical conditions necessary for the ejection of shielded microorganisms from a solar system and the biological conditions involving ultraviolet and ionizing radiations to which they are subjected in space. The radiation dose for both UV and ionizing radiation from the host star, the destination star and interstellar space is calculated for three different micro-organisms. The time of transport and the survival of the micro-organisms are strongly dependent on the composition and thickness of any mantle encasing the micro-organism and on the mass/luminosity ratio of the two stars. The maximum size of grains that can be ejected from the vicinity of one solar mass main sequence and red giant stars ranges from 0.65-0.35µm and 2.1-1.2µm respectively, for a reasonable range of densities. We conclude that unshielded known micro-organisms are immediately killed by ultraviolet radiation, and that an ice mantle does not provide sufficient shielding for either type of star. However, micro-organisms shielded by a carbonaceous thin-film mantle can be ejected from the vicinity of a one solar-mass red-giant star, and such micro-organisms have a high probability of surviving damage from the ultraviolet and ionizing radiations to which they are exposed. 相似文献
3.
4.
Paul A. LaViolette 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1985,20(3):545-558
Dust filtered from the lower portion of the Camp Century ice core (77°10'N, 61°08'W) has been analyzed for the presence of the cosmic dust indicators iridium and nickel using the neutron activation analysis technique. This study was carried out to test the hypothesis that the climatic change toward the end of the Last Ice Age was triggered by an incursion of nebular material into the Solar System. The analytical results are consistent with this hypothesis. Concentrations of Ir and Ni in the ice were one to two orders of magnitude higher during the latter portion of the Last Ice Age (19,700-14,200 years BP) as compared with current levels. Ir and Ni levels in 6 out of 8 samples suggest a total cosmic dust influx rate of about 0.5?3 times 107 tons/yr to the Earth's surface as compared with about 1?7 x× 105 tons/yr for the current influx. Elemental concentrations in 6 of the 8 dust samples ranged from 6? 96 ppb for Ir and < 60 to 3200 ppm for Ni. It is concluded that a major fraction of this invading dust would have been of submicron size in which case the concentration of light scattering particles would have been sufficient to significantly alter the light transmission properties of the Solar System and substantially affect the Earth's climate. These results mark the first time that cosmic dust deposition rates have been estimated for prehistoric times using the polar ice record. 相似文献
5.
Arnaud M. Aubourg E. Bareyre P. Br';ehin S. Caridroit R. de Kat J. Dispau G. Djidi K. Gros M. Lachièze-Rey M. Laigneau Y. Laurent B. Lesquoy E. Lavocat Ph. Magneville C. Mazeau B. Milsztajn A. Moscoso L. Pasquaud J. Paul B. Perrin P. Petibon J. Piret Y. Queinnec F. Rich J. Spiro M. de Trogoff J. Vigroux L. Zylberajch S. Ansari R. Cavalier F. Moniez M. Beaulieu J. P. Ferlet R. Grison Ph. Vidal-Madjar A. Adrianzyk G. Berger J. P. Burnage R. Delclite J. C. Kohler D. Magnan R. Richaud A. Guibert J. Moreau O. Tajahmady F. Baranne A. Maurice E. Prévôt L. Gry C. 《Experimental Astronomy》1994,4(3-4):265-278
A 20cm
2
CCD mosaic camera has been especially built to search for dark galactic halo objects by the gravitational microlensing effect. The sensitive area is made of 16 edge-buttable CCDs developped by Thomson-CTS, with 23×23 µm
2
pixels. The 35 kg camera housing and mechanical equipment is presented. The associated electronics and data acquisition system are described in a separate paper. The camera resides at the focal plane of a 40 cm, f/10, Ferson reflector. The instrument has been in operation since December 1991 at the La Silla Observatory (ESO). 相似文献
6.
The historic era, which in Cumbria begins with the Roman invasion of AD 71, is a frequently neglected period in palaeoecological research, but its study can bring benefits in improving knowledge of landscape history and in understanding the significance and limitations of palaeoecological records. Pollen and geochemical data are presented for late Holocene records from Deer Dyke and Hulleter Mosses in southern Cumbria. The records show initially low levels of anthropogenic impact, followed by a phase of forest clearance and mixed agriculture from the 7th to 11th centuries AD. The timing of these clearances suggests that they were initially Anglo‐Saxon in origin, rather than Norse. Further clearances in the 16th century AD are interpreted as a response to monastic dissolution and late Tudor population pressures; the landscapes reached their contemporary form following extensive clearances in the 17th century AD. Silicon and titanium concentrations at Deer Dyke Moss were used to reconstruct past levels of atmospheric dust loading, which is broadly related to soil erosion. Geochemical influx was found to peak during periods of landscape transition rather than from established land use. This relationship with pollen data is thought to reflect the predominantly low levels of anthropogenic impact in the region, which changes as substantial woodland clearances during the 16th century AD and continuous land use pressure since then have greatly increased the supply of airborne dust. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Richard C. Preece Simon A. Parfitt G. Russell Coope Kirsty E. H. Penkman Philippe Ponel John E. Whittaker 《第四纪科学杂志》2009,24(6):557-580
Considerable debate surrounds the age of the Middle Pleistocene glacial succession in East Anglia following some recent stratigraphical reinterpretations. Resolution of the stratigraphy here is important since it not only concerns the glacial history of the region but also has a bearing on our understanding of the earliest human occupation of north‐western Europe. The orthodox consensus that all the tills were emplaced during the Anglian (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12) has recently been challenged by a view assigning each major till to a different glacial stage, before, during and after MIS 12. Between Trimingham and Sidestrand on the north Norfolk coast, datable organic sediments occur immediately below and above the glacial succession. The oldest glacial deposit (Happisburgh Till) directly overlies the ‘Sidestrand Unio‐bed’, here defined as the Sidestrand Hall Member of the Cromer Forest‐bed Formation. Dating of these sediments therefore has a bearing on the maximum age of the glacial sequence. This paper reviews the palaeobotany and describes the faunal assemblages recovered from the Sidestrand Unio‐bed, which accumulated in a fluvial environment in a fully temperate climate with regional deciduous woodland. There are indications from the ostracods for weakly brackish conditions. Significant differences are apparent between the Sidestrand assemblages and those from West Runton, the type site of the Cromerian Stage. These differences do not result from contrasting facies or taphonomy but reflect warmer palaeotemperatures at Sidestrand and a much younger age. This conclusion is suggested by the higher proportion of thermophiles at Sidestrand and the occurrence of a water vole with unrooted molars (Arvicola) rather than its ancestor Mimomys savini with rooted molars. Amino acid racemisation data also indicate that Sidestrand is significantly younger than West Runton. These data further highlight the stratigraphical complexity of the ‘Cromerian Complex’ and support the conventional view that the Happisburgh Till was emplaced during the Anglian rather than the recently advanced view that it dates from MIS 16. Moreover, new evidence from the Trimingham lake bed (Sidestrand Cliff Formation) above the youngest glacial outwash sediments (Briton's Lane Formation) indicates that they also accumulated during a Middle Pleistocene interglacial – probably MIS 11. All of this evidence is consistent with a short chronology placing the glacial deposits within MIS 12, rather than invoking multiple episodes of glaciation envisaged in the ‘new glacial stratigraphy’ during MIS 16, 12, 10 and 6. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
9.
In an attempt to discover planetary eclipses, we observed the open cluster NGC 7086. On one night we observed the cluster and standard stars through the B and V filters, enabling us to make a colour-magnitude diagram. Plots of the differential magnitudes were inspected for variability, but no planetary eclipses were found. New variable stars were discovered and their light curves show some of them to be eclipsing binary stars. The location on the colour-magnitude diagram of some of the variable stars is consistent with cluster membership. 相似文献
10.
Glenn M. Frye Jr. Philip P. Dunphy Edward L. Chupp Paul Evenson 《Solar physics》1988,118(1-2):321-346