Flow directions in ash-flow tuffs: a comparison of geological and magnetic susceptibility measurements, Tshirege member (upper Bandelier Tuff), Valles caldera, New Mexico, USA

This study concludes that the elongation axis (K ₁) of the ellipsoid of anisotropic magnetic susceptibility (AMS) is a suitable proxy for flow axis in ashflow tuffs. 153 oriented samples (176 specimens) were studied from 18 sites in the 1.1 Ma Tshirege member of the Bandelier Tuff. These sites are distributed around the Valles caldera at distances of 5–25 km outside of the rim.K ₁ axes correlate well with postulated radial flow axes at 13 sites.K ₁ also agrees with measured geological flow indicators, mainly imbricated larger clasts, at 7 sites. At 2 of the 5 sites where significant disagreement is seen between theoretical radial flow directions and measuredK ₁ axes, theK ₁ axes correspond well with geological flow indicators, indicating that the divergence of flow from the predicted radial flow pattern is real. Two major topographic buttresses are suggested as the cause of flow divergence for the Tshirege ash flows: the San Pedro buttress northwest of the caldera, and the San Miguel buttress in the southeast. In situK ₁ axes plunge about 7° toward the source at two-thirds of the sites; therefore the plunge ofK ₁ is a plausible in situ indicator for thedirection of flow. Multiple flow zones in sections of several meters thickness indicate changes of flow direction that are both rapid and large during ash-flow emplacement. These observations raisre the question of how best to represent mean flow directions in ash-flow sheets: by eigenvector methods, by vector-sum methods, or by modes. A method for measuring imbrication of larger clasts using apparent dips in vertical joints is outlined. Imbrication, determined in this way at one-third of the sites, dips toward the source, i.e., up-flow. The minimum (K ₃) axis of the AMS ellipsoid correlates with the flow foliation rather than with the larger clast imbrication. The flow axes of ash flows correspond with theK ₁ axes, not with the declination ofK ₃ axes as suggested by some authors. Initial dip of the sampled ash flows is not large and does not affect the paleomagnetic remanence direction, which is reversed with a mean ofD=173.5°,I=-38.4°, ₉₅=3.4°N=18. This mean is not different at the 95% confidence level from that of earlier workers. The mean pole, at 098.0°E, 74.8°N,A ₉₅=3.3°,N=18, is about 15° far-sided relative to the expected time-averaged geomagnetic pole, suggesting a history of emplacement too short to adequately average secular variation.     

Geohazards surveys in the North Carolina upper continental margin

Geophysical surveys on the upper continental slope and shelf-break area off North Carolina confirm previous suggestions that this highly dissected region is characterized by deposition of sediment swept from the adjacent shelf. Seismic reflection profiling, echo sounding and side-scan sonar studies failed to reveal conclusive evidence for slumping or other gravity processes which have been described for similar areas to the north. Outcrops appear to be lacking and the upper slope is a region of sediment accumulation and/or periodic bypassing.     

Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.     

Spatial Modeling of Geometallurgical Properties: Techniques and a Case Study

High-resolution spatial numerical models of metallurgical properties constrained by geological controls and more extensively by measured grade and geomechanical properties constitute an important part of geometallurgy. Geostatistical and other numerical techniques are adapted and developed to construct these high-resolution models accounting for all available data. Important issues that must be addressed include unequal sampling of the metallurgical properties versus grade assays, measurements at different scale, and complex nonlinear averaging of many metallurgical parameters. This paper establishes techniques to address each of these issues with the required implementation details and also demonstrates geometallurgical mineral deposit characterization for a copper–molybdenum deposit in South America. High-resolution models of grades and comminution indices are constructed, checked, and are rigorously validated. The workflow demonstrated in this case study is applicable to many other deposit types.