The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba,Peru)

Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre- and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1–2 million m³. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m³/s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10–15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m³) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m³, according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions.

     

Large-scale galactic turbulence: can self-gravity drive the observed H i velocity dispersions?

Observations of turbulent velocity dispersions in the H  i component of galactic discs show a characteristic floor in galaxies with low star formation rates and within individual galaxies the dispersion profiles decline with radius. We carry out several high-resolution adaptive mesh simulations of gaseous discs embedded within dark matter haloes to explore the roles of cooling, star formation, feedback, shearing motions and baryon fraction in driving turbulent motions. In all simulations the disc slowly cools until gravitational and thermal instabilities give rise to a multiphase medium in which a large population of dense self-gravitating cold clouds are embedded within a warm gaseous phase that forms through shock heating. The diffuse gas is highly turbulent and is an outcome of large-scale driving of global non-axisymmetric modes as well as cloud–cloud tidal interactions and merging. At low star formation rates these processes alone can explain the observed H  i velocity dispersion profiles and the characteristic value of  ∼10 km s⁻¹  observed within a wide range of disc galaxies. Supernovae feedback creates a significant hot gaseous phase and is an important driver of turbulence in galaxies with a star formation rate per unit area  ≳10⁻³ M_⊙ yr⁻¹ kpc⁻²  .     

Zircon U-Pb geochronology and geochemistry of Late Devonian–Carboniferous granitoids in NW Iran: implications for the opening of Paleo-Tethys

ABSTRACT

We present zircon U-Pb crystallization ages combined with bulk rock major and trace element geochemistry and Sr-Nd-Pb and zircon in-situ Hf isotopic compositions of the Amand and Moro granitoid intrusions in northwest Iran. The Amand and Moro plutons include granite and syeno-diorite with LA-ICP-MS U-Pb zircon ages of 367 ± 6.8 Ma and 351 ± 1.3 Ma, respectively, representative of Late Devonian-Early Carboniferous magmatic activity in NW Iran. Geochemical characteristics such as typical enrichments in alkalis, Nb, Zr, Ga and Y, depletion in P and Sr and fractionated REE patterns with high Ga/Al ratios and Eu negative anomalies are consistent with A-type magmatic signatures. The granitoids are classified as A₂-type and within-plate granitoids. The bulk rock geochemistry (enrichments in Th, Nb and, high Th/Yb, Zr/Y ratios) along with low variation of ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd_(i) and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) ratios and positive zircon εHf_(t) support the role of a mantle plume component for the evolution of the Amand and Moro A-type granitoids in an extensional tectonic environment. In fitting with wider regional knowledge, this magmatism occurred during Paleo-Tethys opening in northern Gondwana.     

The alluvial architecture of a suspended sediment dominated meandering river: the Río Bermejo,Argentina

The alluvial architecture of fine‐grained (silt‐bed) meandering rivers remains poorly understood in comparison to the extensive study given to sand‐bed and gravel‐bed channels. This paucity of knowledge stems, in part, from the difficulty of studying such modern rivers and deriving analogue information from which to inform facies models for ancient sediments. This paper employs a new technique, the parametric echosounder, to quantify the subsurface structure of the Río Bermejo, Argentina, which is a predominantly silt‐bed river with a large suspended sediment load. These results show that the parametric echosounder can provide high‐resolution (decimetre) subsurface imaging from fine‐grained rivers that is equivalent to the more commonly used ground‐penetrating radar that has been shown to work well in coarser‐grained rivers. Analysis of the data reveals that the alluvial architecture of the Río Bermejo is characterized by large‐scale inclined heterolithic stratification generated by point‐bar evolution, and associated large‐scale scour surfaces that result from channel migration. The small‐scale and medium‐scale structure of the sedimentary architecture is generated by vertical accretion deposits, bed sets associated with small bars, dunes and climbing ripples and the cut and fill from small cross‐bar channels. This style of alluvial architecture is very different from other modern fine‐grained rivers reported in the literature that emphasize the presence of oblique accretion. The Río Bermejo differs from these other rivers because it is much more active, with very high rates of bank erosion and channel migration. Modern examples of this type of highly active fine‐grained river have been reported rarely in the literature, although ancient examples are more prevalent and show similarities with the alluvial architecture of the Río Bermejo, which thus represents a useful analogue for their identification and interpretation. Although the full spectrum of the sedimentology of fine‐grained rivers has yet to be revealed, meandering rivers dominated by lateral or oblique accretion probably represent end members of such channels, with the specific style of sedimentation being controlled by grain size and sediment load characteristics.     

A geologic study of the Juan del Grijalva landslide,the most important mass movement during the last century in Mexico

On November 4th 2007, along the Grijalva River in the state of Chiapas, Mexico, has occurred one of the largest landslides ever known. This landslide, known as Juan del Grijalva, destroyed the town of the same name, killing 20 people, and moved 55 million cubic meters of rock and debris down slope to completely block the Grijalva River. In order to understand the characteristics and factors that triggered the Juan del Grijalva landslide, geologic studies were conducted at the site. The results indicate that the landslide was composed of a lithologic sequence of thin-bedded shales and thin to medium-thick-bedded sandstones. This was faulted into several blocks dipping in the same sense as the mass movement. The main triggering factor was the increment of the pore pressure into the lithologic unit due to water saturation after 5 days of heavy rain before the incident. According to records from the last century, the Juan del Grijalva mass movement represents one of the largest mass movements recorded all over the world. The risk conditions of the area after the landslide lead to the rapid construction of an artificial channel to drain the accumulating mass of water upstream and therefore prevent a future catastrophic inundation down stream.     

On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/1998 El Ni?o

The importance of initializing atmospheric intra-seasonal (stochastic) variations for prediction of the onset of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o is examined using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. A suite of 9-month forecasts was initialized on the 1st December 1996. Observed ocean initial conditions were used together with five different atmospheric initial conditions that sample a range of possible initial states of intra-seasonal (stochastic) variability, especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is considered the primary stochastic variability of relevance to El Ni?o evolution. The atmospheric initial states were generated from a suite of atmosphere-only integrations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST). To the extent that low frequency variability of the tropical atmosphere is forced by slow variations in SST, these atmospheric states should all represent realistic low frequency atmospheric variability that was present in December 1996. However, to the extent that intra-seasonal variability is not constrained by SST, they should capture a range of intra-seasonal states, especially variations in the activity, phase and amplitude of the MJO. For each of these five states, a 20-member ensemble of coupled model forecasts was generated by the addition of small random perturbations to the SST field at the initial time. The ensemble mean from all five sets of forecasts resulted in El Ni?o but three of the sets produced substantially greater warming by months 4?C5 in the NINO3.4 region compared to the other two. The warmer group stemmed from stronger intra-seasonal westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO that propagated eastward into the central Pacific during the first 1?C2?months of the forecast. These were largely absent in the colder group; the weakest of the colder group developed strong easterly wind anomalies, relative to the grand ensemble mean, that propagated into the central Pacific early in the forecast, thereby generating significantly weaker downwelling Kelvin waves in comparison to the warmer group. The strong reduction in downwelling Kelvin waves in the weakest case acted to limit the warming in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a ??Modoki?? type El Ni?o that is more focused in the central Pacific. Our results suggest that the intra-seasonal stochastic component of the atmospheric initial condition has an important and potentially predictable impact on the forecasts of the initial warming and flavour of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o. However, to the extent that atmospheric intra-seasonal variability is not predictable beyond a month or two, these results imply a limit to the accuracy with which the strength and perhaps the spatial distribution of an El Ni?o can ultimately be predicted. These results do not preclude a predictable role of the MJO and other intra-seasonal stochastic variability at longer lead times if some aspects of the stochastic variability are preconditioned by the evolving state of El Ni?o or other low frequency boundary forcing.     

ENSO,the IOD and the intraseasonal prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA-2

The simulation and prediction of extreme heat over Australia on intraseasonal timescales in association with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is assessed using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The analysis is based on hindcasts over 1981–2010 and focuses on weeks 2 and 3 of the forecasts, i.e. beyond a typical weather forecast. POAMA simulates the observed increased probabilities of extreme heat during El Niño events, focussed over south eastern and southern Australia in SON and over northern Australia in DJF, and the decreased probabilities of extreme heat during La Niña events, although the magnitude of these relationships is smaller than observed. POAMA also captures the signal of increased probabilities of extreme heat during positive phases of the IOD across southern Australia in SON and over Western Australia in JJA, but again underestimates the strength of the relationship. Shortcomings in the simulation of extreme heat in association with ENSO and the IOD over southern Australia may be linked to deficiencies in the teleconnection with Indian Ocean SSTs. Forecast skill for intraseasonal episodes of extreme heat is assessed using the Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index. Skill is highest over northern Australia in MAM and JJA and over south-eastern and eastern Australia in JJA and SON, whereas skill is generally poor over south-west Western Australia. Results show there are windows of forecast opportunity related to the state of ENSO and the IOD, where the skill in predicting extreme temperatures over certain regions is increased.     

Spatial Heterogeneity Created by Burrowing Crabs Affects Human Impact on Migratory Shorebirds

We show that, as previously described, there are conflicts between areas used by people and shorebirds. However, we propose that burrowing organisms add complexity to the shorebird–human interaction that should be taken into account for management and conservation. This is because SW Atlantic mudflats are dominated by high densities (up to 60 crabs m⁻²) of a strong bioturbator, the burrowing crab Neohelice granulata (=Chasmagnathus granulatus). These crabs affect the habitat use and foraging performance of shorebird species. The two-banded plover Charadrius falklandicus feed more in burrow areas whereas the yellowlegs Tringa spp. and the white-rumped sandpiper Calidris fuscicollis tend to avoid burrow areas. We evaluated the effect of human recreational activities on shorebirds, taking into account shorebird–crab interaction, during shorebird migratory periods (November to April) of 2001, 2002, and 2003. This study was performed at the Mar Chiquita coastal lagoon (37° 40′ S, Argentina). Results showed that people only rarely used the extensive soft bottom intertidals dominated by burrowing assemblages of N. granulata because the soft sediments make walking difficult. Therefore, human impact is reduced for the two-banded plover. However, for several migratory shorebirds that also avoid burrow areas, these areas act as suboptimal alternative areas when human impact is important in their preferred habitats. When human activity is low, shorebirds remain foraging in the area but they decrease their feeding intakes. The extensions of burrow areas differ among estuaries and are likely to generate between-estuaries differences as stopover sites for shorebirds. Also, other species that form large burrowing assemblages can have a similar impact on shorebird–human interactions.