Urban scenarios modifications due to the earthquake: ruins formation criteria and interactions with pedestrians’ evacuation

One of the most influencing elements in inhabitants’ earthquake safety definition is represented by the interactions between people and post-event environment in urban scenarios. Understanding and simulating rules for pedestrians’ motion in earthquake evacuation could be useful to inquire the risk assessment introducing the “human” factor influence: integrated “risk maps” could be realized by combining results of similar analyses with the traditional site hazard, buildings vulnerability and exposition indices. This work proposes an innovative approach based on the analysis of these interactions. Two experimentally-based activities are required: an analysis of human behaviors towards the post-earthquake environment; a relation for defining environmental modifications. Results firstly show a summary of man-environment interactions in earthquake evacuations. A possible criterion for path choice in evacuation is also numerically defined. A theoretical agent-based model is developed on these bases and summarizes phases, motion rules and man-environment interactions in earthquake pedestrians’ evacuation in urban scenarios. Secondly, quick criteria for scenario modifications involving ruins formation are proposed and evaluated: for each building, the percentages of internal and external ruins area is a function of its vulnerability and the expected earthquake Richter magnitude. Moreover, the external ruins formation criterion is validated by comparing predicted and effective values of ruins area depth in real cases. The model could be proposed as a tool for evaluating probable pedestrians’ choices in post-event scenarios, in order to reduce the interferences between the built environment and the evacuation process through interventions on buildings, urban fabric and strategies for emergency management.     

Transantarctic Mountain microtektites: Geochemical affinity with Australasian microtektites

We extended the petrographic and geochemical dataset for the recently discovered Transantarctic Mountain microtektites in order to check our previous claim that they are related to the Australasian strewn field. Based on color and composition, the 465 microtektites so far identified include two groups of transparent glass spheres less than ca. 800 μm in diameter: the most abundant pale-yellow, or normal, microtektites, and the rare pale-green, or high-Mg, microtektites. The major element composition of normal microtektites determined through electron microprobe analysis is characterized by high contents of silica (SiO₂ = 71.5 ± 3.6 (1σ) wt%) and alumina (Al₂O₃ = 15.5 ± 2.2 (1σ) wt%), low total alkali element contents (0.50-1.85 wt%), and MgO abundances <6 wt%. The high-Mg microtektites have a distinctly higher MgO content >10 wt%. Transantarctic Mountain microtektites contain rare silica-rich (up to 93 wt% SiO₂) glassy inclusions similar to those found in two Australasian microtektites analyzed here for comparison. These inclusions are interpreted as partially digested, lechatelierite-like inclusions typically found in tektites and microtektites. The major and trace element (by laser ablation - inductively coupled plasma - mass spectrometry) abundance pattern of the Transantarctic Mountain microtektites matches the average upper continental crust composition for most elements. Major deviations include a strong to moderate depletion in volatile elements including Pb, Zn, Na, K, Rb, Sr and Cs, as a likely result of severe volatile loss during the high temperature melting and vaporization of crustal target rocks. The normal and high-Mg Transantarctic Mountain microtektites have compositions similar to the most volatile-poor normal and high-Mg Australasian microtektites reported in the literature. Their very low H₂O and B contents (by secondary ion mass spectrometry) of 85 ± 58 (1σ) μg/g and 0.53 ± 0.21 μg/g, respectively, evidence the extreme volatile loss characteristically observed in tektites. The Sr and Nd isotopic compositions of multigrain samples of Transantarctic Mountain microtektites are ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ≈ 0.71629 and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ≈ 0.51209, and fall into the Australasian tektite compositional field. The Nd model age calculated with respect to the chondritic uniform reservoir (CHUR) is T^Nd_CHUR ≈ 1.1 Ga, indicating a Meso-Proterozoic crustal source rock, as was derived for Australasian tektites as well.Coupled with the Quaternary age from the literature, the extended dataset presented in this work strengthens our previous conclusion that Transantarctic Mountain microtektites represent a major southward extension of the Australasian tektite/microtektite strewn field. Furthermore, the significant depletion in volatile elements (i.e., Pb, B, Na, K, Zn, Rb, Sr and Cs) of both normal and high-Mg Transantarctic Mountain microtektites relative to the Australasian ones provide us with further confirmation of a possible relationship between high temperature-time regimes in the microtektite-forming process and ejection distance.     

Evaluation of liquefaction potential based on CPT results using evolutionary polynomial regression

In this paper a new approach is presented, based on evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR), for determination of liquefaction potential of sands. EPR models are developed and validated using a database of 170 liquefaction and non-liquefaction field case histories for sandy soils based on CPT results. Three models are presented to relate liquefaction potential to soil geometric and geotechnical parameters as well as earthquake characteristics. It is shown that the EPR model is able to learn, with a very high accuracy, the complex relationship between liquefaction and its contributing factors in the form of a function. The attained function can then be used to generalize the learning to predict liquefaction potential for new cases not used in the construction of the model. The results of the developed EPR models are compared with a conventional model as well as a number of neural network-based models. It is shown that the proposed EPR model provides more accurate results than the conventional model and the accuracy of the EPR results is better than or at least comparable to that of the neural network-based models proposed in the literature. The advantages of the proposed EPR model over the conventional and neural network-based models are highlighted.     

Metals in sediments and fish from Sea Lots and Point Lisas Harbors, Trinidad and Tobago

Concentrations of heavy metals were determined in nearshore marine sediments and fish tissue from Sea Lots area on the west coast, at Caroni Lagoon National Park, and in the Point Lisas harbor, Trinidad. The most dominant metals found in sediments were Al, Fe and Zn with mean concentrations highest at Sea Lots (Al-39420 μg/g; Fe-45640 μg/g; Zn-245 μg/g), when compared to sediments from Point Lisas (Al-11936 μg/g; Fe-30171 μg/g; Zn-69 μg/g) and Caroni (Al-0400 μg/g; Fe-19000 μg/g; Zn-32 μg/g), High concentration of Cu, Al, Fe and Zn were also detected in fish tissue from Point Lisas and Caroni. Metal concentrations in fish tissue showed significant correlation with sediment metals concentration, which suggests that tissue levels are influenced by sediment concentration. Of the metals, only Zn, Hg and Cu had a bioaccumulation factor (BAF) greater than one, which suggests a high bioaccumulation potential for these metals.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in harbor sediments from Sea Lots, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago

Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were determined in nearshore marine surficial sediments from three locations in Trinidad. Sediments were sampled at Sea Lots on the west coast, in south Port-of-Spain Harbor, south of Sea Lots at Caroni Lagoon National Park, and on Trinidad’s east coast at Manzanilla. Total PCB concentrations in Sea Lots sediments ranged from 62 to 601 ng/g (dry weight {dw}), which was higher than at Caroni and Manzanilla, 13 and 8 ng/g dw, respectively. Total OCP concentrations at Sea Lots were ranged from 44.5 to 145 ng/g dw, compared with 13.1 and 23.8 n/g (dw), for Caroni and Manzanilla respectively. The concentrations of PCBs and of some OCPs in sediments from Sea Lots were above the Canadian interim sediment quality guidelines. To date, this data is the first report on the levels of PCBs and other organochlorine compounds from Trinidad and Tobago.     

An investigation on stream temperature analysis based on evolutionary computing

The data‐driven technique, evolutionary polynomial regression, has been tested and used for the study of water temperature behaviour in the River Barle (south‐west England). The study aimed to produce multiple models for forecasting water temperature, using air temperature as input. In addition, river discharge data were used to describe the hydrological regime of the study stream, even if they are not involved in the modelling phase. The availability of data sampled at hourly intervals allowed behaviour to be studied at several time scales, including short‐term lags between air temperature and water temperature. The approach to model building differs from previous studies in that the relationship between air temperature and water temperature is not evaluated on the basis of a multi‐parameter regression, nor does it identify particular structures; rather the evolutionary technique identifies the model by itself. In fact, the non‐linear relationship between air temperature and water temperature is investigated by an evolutionary search in the space of particular pseudo‐polynomials structures. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.