Modelling change in the Peruvian-Chilean Eastern Pacific Fisheries

Time-series analyses of the Peruvian-Chilean Eastern Pacific Fisheries output are presented. The paper discusses how human action and adverse environmental conditions have affected regional productivity levels and fish stock. It is shown that overfishing during critical environmental periods is the likely cause for fluctuations in regional output and the decline of Peru's fishing (anchovy) industry, in opposition to the theory that holds that stock depletion is caused solely by ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) events. Policy implications are drawn from empirical findings, tressing the need for strict resource management and future restrictions on fish captures when ENSO events are highly probable.     

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This paper investigates for a 25-year period the sediment distribution in a semi-arid Brazilian basin (2 × 10⁴ km²) with a network containing more than 4000 surface reservoirs. The methodology is based on rating curves and fitted parameters derived from field data. The results showed that suspended load corresponded to 70% of the total sediment yield (148 t km^-2 year^-1). The relatively low contribution of the suspended load (compared with other semi-arid regions) was attributed to the impact of the numerous upstream reservoirs, which retained 235 t km^-2 year^-1. The micro (<1 hm³), small (1–10 hm³), medium-sized (10–50 hm³), and large or strategic (>50 hm³) reservoirs responded to, respectively, 5, 17, 30 and 48% of the total sediment retention by the reservoir network. This indicates that retention in the non-strategic reservoirs has a positive impact on water availability, since siltation of the strategic reservoirs would be expected to more than double if only such reservoirs existed.

Citation Lima Neto, I. E., Wiegand, M. C. &; de Araújo, J. C. (2011) Sediment redistribution due to a dense reservoir network in a large semi-arid Brazilian basin. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(2), 319–333.     

Tracking CO2 plume migration during geologic sequestration using a probabilistic history matching approach

Tracking the migration of the CO₂ plume is essential in order to better manage the operation of geologic sequestration of CO₂. However, the large cost of most monitoring technologies, such as time-lapse seismic, limits their application. We investigated the application of a probabilistic history matching methodology using routine measurements of injection data, which are affected by the presence of large-scale heterogeneities, as an inexpensive alternative to track the migration of CO₂ plume in an aquifer. The approach is demonstrated first through a synthetic example in which the ability to detect the presence of flow barriers was tested. In a second example, we applied our method to the In Salah field, one of the largest geological sequestration projects in the world, where the main direction of high permeability features was inferred. The accuracy and reproducibility of the results show that our approach for assisted history matching is an economic and viable option for plume monitoring during geologic CO₂ sequestration.     

The effect of thermal treatment on the 57Fe Mössbauer spectrum of beryl

Mössbauer spectra (MS) of blue, green and yellow beryl (ideally Be₃Al₂Si₆O₁₈) containing approximately 1% of iron were obtained at 295 and 500 K. Room temperature (RT) spectra of both blue and green samples showed the presence of an asymmetric Fe²⁺ doublet (ΔE _Q~2.7 mm/s, δ~1.1 mm/s), with a very broad low-velocity peak. There is no clear evidence for the presence of a ferric component. The MS of the yellow sample at RT consists of an intense central absorption with parameters typical for Fe³⁺ (ΔE _Q~0.4 mm/s, δ~0.29 mm/s), plus an apparently symmetrical Fe²⁺ doublet. This sample acquires a light-blue shade upon heating in air at about 620 K. Thermal treatments at high temperatures caused no significant changes in the MS, but the green and yellow beryl acquire a blue colour. All these results are interpreted in relation to the existence of channel water and the distribution of iron among the available crystallographic sites.     

GEOGRAPHY AND THE LESSONS FROM EL NIÑO*

Recognized for years as a major environmental disruption, El Niño generated intense public interest in 1982–1983. During its last occurrence, this phenomenon, which develops in the tropical Pacific and usually affects rimlands of the Pacific basin, exceeded its boundaries and its effects were transmitted to continental North America, Europe, Africa and East Asia. Notwithstanding its vast areal extent, the interest of geographers in El Niño events, past and recent, has been comparatively less than that demonstrated by natural scientists and ecologists: little has been accomplished to place these climatic-ecological crises within global perspective. Lessons from El Niño include the acknowledgement of new concepts of climatic transitivity, ocean dynamics and energy exchanges that must find a place within the conceptual wealth of geography if this science intends to keep up with the rapid progress of other geosciences.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.     

The continental record of Ediacaran volcano‐sedimentary successions in southern Brazil and their global implications

The Ediacaran is one of the most important periods on Earth evolution, including the first appearance of soft‐bodied macrofossils, major climatic changes and a supposed rise in free oxygen. In southernmost Brazil, this period is represented by Camaquã Supergroup, including the Bom Jardim Group and the Acampamento Velho Formation, both of which record continental palaeoenvironmental changes in a more than 5000 m thick stratigraphic succession. Age constraints are given by seven Ar‐Ar and U‐Pb determinations on volcanic rocks, which bracket these units between c. 605 and 574 Ma, revealing the best dated and most continuous documented Ediacaran continental succession to date. Depositional systems evolution supports a Phanerozoic‐type glacial context during the last Neoproterozoic glacial event and presents the Picada das Graças Formation (580 ± 3.6 Ma) as the first dated non‐glacial unit coeval to the Gaskiers Formation.     

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.