Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.     

A nonlinear PDE formulation for offshore vessel pipeline installation

In this paper a nonlinear dynamic PDE formulation for a pipe string suspended from a pipelay vessel to the seabed in a pipelay operation is developed. This model extends a three-dimensional beam model capable of undergoing finite extension, shearing, twist and bending, to apply for marine applications by adding the effects of restoring forces, hydrodynamic drag and seabed interaction. The model is validated against the natural catenary equation and the FEM code RIFLEX. The model is extended to include the pipelay vessel dynamics by applying a potential theory formulation of a surface vessel, suited for dynamic positioning and low speed maneuvering, as a boundary condition for the PDE. This system is found to be input-output passive and stable. Pipeline installation applications where the presented model is suited are e.g., analysis and simulation of the installation operation, operability analysis, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing for vessel control systems, and automation of the pipelay operation.     

Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies

Over 40 studies that analyse future GHG emissions allowances or reduction targets for different regions based on a wide range of effort-sharing approaches and long-term concentration stabilization levels are compared. This updates previous work undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Regional reduction targets differ significantly for each effort-sharing approach. For example, in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 1990 region, new proposals that emphasize the equity principles of responsibility, capability, and need, and those based on equal cumulative per capita emissions (carbon budgets), lead to relatively stringent emissions reduction targets. In order to reach a low concentration stabilization level of 450?ppm CO₂e, the allowances under all effort sharing approaches in OECD1990 for 2030 would be approximately half of the emissions of 2010 with a large range, roughly two-thirds in the Economies in Transition (EIT), roughly at the 2010 emissions level or slightly below in Asia, slightly above the 2010 level in the Middle East and Africa and well below the 2010 level in Latin America. For 2050, allowances in OECD1990 and EIT would be a fraction of today's emissions, approximately half of 2010 emission levels in Asia, and possibly less than half of the 2010 level in Latin America.

Policy relevance

The concept of equity and the stringency of future national GHG reduction targets are at the heart of the current debate on the new international climate change agreement to be adopted in 2015. Policy insights gained from an analysis of over 40 studies, which have quantitatively analysed the proposed GHG reduction targets, are presented. It is found that the outcome of effort-sharing approaches is often largely determined by the way the equity principle is implemented and that the distributional impacts of such approaches can be significantly different depending on the criteria used, the stabilization level and shape of the global emissions pathway. However, the current literature only covers a small proportion of the possible allocation approaches. There should thus be an in-depth modelling comparison to ensure consistency and comparability of results and inform decision making regarding the reduction of GHG emissions.     

Action targets: a new approach to international greenhouse gas controls

Abstract

This article introduces and explores a new form of international commitment to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, called an action target. Action targets differ from other forms of targets, such as the Kyoto Protocol's fixed targets, in that they define a quantity of GHG abatement to be achieved, rather than a future emission level to be reached. This article explains the basic mechanics of how action targets might operate, and analyses the approach across a range of criteria, including uncertainty management and contributions to sustainable development in non-Annex I (developing) countries. The analysis suggests that action targets might improve the prospects of widening and deepening developing country participation in the international climate regime.     

Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

     

Quasi-stationary striations in basin-scale oceanic circulation: vorticity balance from observations and eddy-resolving model

Recently, prominent jet-like features of the ocean circulation, called striations, with a meridional scale of O(300–500 ;km) and extending for thousands of kilometers in length, have been detected in satellite and in situ observations and in high-resolution numerical models. In this paper, we study quasi-stationary striations, which are best seen in the multi-year time-averaged velocity fields. Using 1993–2002 mean dynamic ocean topography, satellite altimeter observations, and output of the Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator, the dynamics of the quasi-stationary striations in the eastern parts of the subtropical North and South Pacific are examined by assessing individual terms in the time-averaged equations of relative and potential vorticity. While non-linear effects are found to be essential in the dynamics of the striations, rejecting some linear hypotheses forwarded in the earlier studies, the relevance of the Rhines mechanism is not confirmed. Eddy flux does not act as a relative vorticity source for the striations. Using the potential vorticity (PV) diagnostics, we show that the time-mean PV is not conserved along the time-mean streamlines, and on the scale of the striations these changes in PV are largely induced by the eddy flux of layer thickness. The fact that eddy fluxes contribute to the striations’ time-mean PV budget suggests that the striations are not a kinematical artifact of time-averaging of westward-propagating eddies.     

Two-Dimensional Magnetotelluric Modelling of Ore Deposits: Improvements in Model Constraints by Inclusion of Borehole Measurements

A combination of magnetotelluric (MT) measurements on the surface and in boreholes (without metal casing) can be expected to enhance resolution and reduce the ambiguity in models of electrical resistivity derived from MT surface measurements alone. In order to quantify potential improvement in inversion models and to aid design of electromagnetic (EM) borehole sensors, we considered two synthetic 2D models containing ore bodies down to 3000 m depth (the first with two dipping conductors in resistive crystalline host rock and the second with three mineralisation zones in a sedimentary succession exhibiting only moderate resistivity contrasts). We computed 2D inversion models from the forward responses based on combinations of surface impedance measurements and borehole measurements such as (1) skin-effect transfer functions relating horizontal magnetic fields at depth to those on the surface, (2) vertical magnetic transfer functions relating vertical magnetic fields at depth to horizontal magnetic fields on the surface and (3) vertical electric transfer functions relating vertical electric fields at depth to horizontal magnetic fields on the surface. Whereas skin-effect transfer functions are sensitive to the resistivity of the background medium and 2D anomalies, the vertical magnetic and electric field transfer functions have the disadvantage that they are comparatively insensitive to the resistivity of the layered background medium. This insensitivity introduces convergence problems in the inversion of data from structures with strong 2D resistivity contrasts. Hence, we adjusted the inversion approach to a three-step procedure, where (1) an initial inversion model is computed from surface impedance measurements, (2) this inversion model from surface impedances is used as the initial model for a joint inversion of surface impedances and skin-effect transfer functions and (3) the joint inversion model derived from the surface impedances and skin-effect transfer functions is used as the initial model for the inversion of the surface impedances, skin-effect transfer functions and vertical magnetic and electric transfer functions. For both synthetic examples, the inversion models resulting from surface and borehole measurements have higher similarity to the true models than models computed exclusively from surface measurements. However, the most prominent improvements were obtained for the first example, in which a deep small-sized ore body is more easily distinguished from a shallow main ore body penetrated by a borehole and the extent of the shadow zone (a conductive artefact) underneath the main conductor is strongly reduced. Formal model error and resolution analysis demonstrated that predominantly the skin-effect transfer functions improve model resolution at depth below the sensors and at distance of \(\sim \) 300–1000 m laterally off a borehole, whereas the vertical electric and magnetic transfer functions improve resolution along the borehole and in its immediate vicinity. Furthermore, we studied the signal levels at depth and provided specifications of borehole magnetic and electric field sensors to be developed in a future project. Our results suggest that three-component SQUID and fluxgate magnetometers should be developed to facilitate borehole MT measurements at signal frequencies above and below 1 Hz, respectively.