Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Coronal mass ejection associated with the stationary post-flare arch of 21–22 May 1980

By using a combination of X-ray (HXIS), H (Haleakala), white-light corona (Solwind), and zodiacal light (Helios) images on 21–22 May, 1980 we demonstrate, and try to explain, the co-existence of a coronal mass ejection with a stationary post-flare coronal arch. The mass ejection was seen, both by Solwind and Helios, in prolongation of the path of a powerful spray, whereas the active region filament did not erupt. A tentative comparison is made with other occurrences of stationary, or quasi-stationary post-flare coronal arches.     

Kinetics of Cd sorption, desorption and fixation by calcite: A long-term radiotracer study

Time-dependent sorption and desorption of Cd on calcite was studied over 210 days utilizing ¹⁰⁹Cd as a tracer to distinguish between ‘labile’ and ‘non-labile’ forms of sorbed Cd. Stabilizing the calcite suspensions for 12 months under atmospheric P_CO2 and controlled temperature was necessary to reliably follow Cd dynamics following initial sorption. Results revealed time-dependant Cd sorption and marked desorption hysteresis by calcite under environmentally relevant conditions. Data obtained were fitted to a first-order kinetic model and a concentric shell diffusion model. Both models described the progressive transfer of Cd²⁺ to a less reactive form within calcite and subsequent desorption of Cd subject to different initial contact times. The kinetic model provided a better fit to the combined sorption and desorption data (R² = 0.992). It differentiates between two ‘pools’ of sorbed Cd²⁺ on calcite, ‘labile’ and ‘non-labile’, in which labile sorbed Cd is in immediate equilibrium with the free Cd²⁺ ion activity in solution whereas non-labile Cd is kinetically restricted. For the diffusion model (R² = 0.959), the rate constants describing Cd dynamics in calcite produced a half-life for Cd desorption of ∼175 d, for release to a ‘zero-sink’ solution. Results from this study allow comment on the likely mechanisms occurring at the calcite surface following long-term Cd sorption.     

Advances in the fatigue assessment of wire ropes

This paper presents the findings from an in-depth analysis of the (axial) stiffness data recorded during tension–tension fatigue tests on wire ropes, particularly in relation to how changes in stiffness during testing relate to changes in rope strength. A linear relationship between stiffness and strength is shown to exist and a methodology presented for quantifying residual strength with applied cycles. New lower bound fatigue lines for six-strand rope and spiral strand are presented which are based on a 10% loss of strength. These new lines have the advantage of having been established using a common discard criterion for wire ropes.     

Probing molecular-level transformations of dissolved organic matter: insights on photochemical degradation and protozoan modification of DOM from electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry

Molecular-level characterization of natural organic matter (NOM) has been elusive due to the inherent complexity of natural organic mixtures and to the fact that individual components are often polar and macromolecular. Electrospray ionization (ESI) is a “soft” ionization technique that ionizes polar compounds from aqueous solution prior to injection into a mass spectrometer. The highest resolution and mass accuracy of compounds within NOM have been achieved when ESI is combined with an ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometer such as the Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometer (FT-ICR MS). With this technique, individual molecules within a variety of natural organic mixtures can be detected and their elemental composition can be determined. At low mass-to-charge (m/z) ratio, the resolution is high enough to assign exact molecular formulas allowing specific components of these mixtures to be identified. In addition to molecular identification, we can now use ESI FT-ICR MS to examine molecular-level changes in different organic mixtures as a function of relevant geo-processes, such as microbial alterations and photochemistry. Here we present the results from the application of ESI FT-ICR MS to two geochemical questions: (1) the effect of photoirradiation on the molecular composition of fulvic acids and (2) the role of protozoan grazers in the modification of DOM in aquatic systems.     

Risk-based decision-making for drilling waste discharges using a fuzzy synthetic evaluation technique

Offshore petroleum drilling wastes contain toxic substances that are potentially harmful to the marine ecosystem. Despite environmentally benign characteristics, wastes associated with synthetic-based fluids still contain a certain amount of pollutants due to contamination with formation oil and the presence of trace heavy metals in barite, which may pose risk when discharged into the marine environment. A framework is presented here for a decision support system for the selection of the best drilling waste discharge option. Uncertainties in the quantification of risk, cost and technical feasibility are expressed by fuzzy numbers. An analytical hierarchy process with a technique called fuzzy synthetic evaluation is employed to determine the best management alternative (discharge scenario).     

Assessment of cytochrome P450 1A in harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) using a minimally-invasive biopsy approach

Biomarkers of organochlorine exposure, such as the induction of cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A), can be used to assess the impact of environmental contaminants on the health of free-ranging marine mammal populations. The objective of the present study was to measure CYP1A in skin and liver biopsies obtained from live harbour seals (Phoca vitulina). Twelve harbour seal pups, aged three to five weeks, were captured from the Fraser River estuary, British Columbia, Canada, and temporarily held in captivity. Skin ( approximately 60 mg) and liver ( approximately 40 mg) biopsies, obtained while seals were under general anaesthesia, yielded sufficient tissue for the measurement of CYP1A by immunoblot analysis and ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase activity. A short-term exposure experiment, in which harbour seals (n=3) were treated orally with beta-naphthoflavone (BNF), resulted in increased hepatic and cutaneous CYP1A protein levels, consistent with observations in other mammals. This study is the first to measure CYP1A in skin and liver biopsies from live harbour seals and to report in vivo BNF-associated CYP1A induction in a marine mammal. The results demonstrate that microsamples collected using minimally-invasive techniques can provide toxicologically-relevant information form marine mammals.     

Investigating the scale of structural controls on chlorinated hydrocarbon distributions in the fractured-porous unsaturated zone of a sandstone aquifer in the UK

Contaminant migration behaviour in the unsaturated zone of a fractured porous aquifer is discussed in the context of a study site in Cheshire, UK. The site is situated on gently dipping sandstones, adjacent to a linear lagoon historically used to dispose of industrial wastes containing chlorinated solvents. Two cores of more than 100 m length were recovered and measurements of chlorinated hydrocarbons (CHCs), inorganic chemistry, lithology, fracturing and aquifer properties were made. The results show that selecting an appropriate vertical sampling density is crucial both to providing an understanding of contaminant pathways and distinguishing whether CHCs are present in the aqueous or non-aqueous phase. The spacing of such sampling should be on a similar scale to the heterogeneity that controls water and contaminant movement. For some sections of the Permo-Triassic aquifer, significant changes in lithology and permeability occur over vertical distances of less than 1 m and samples need to be collected at this interval, otherwise considerable resolution is lost, potentially leading to erroneous interpretation of data. At this site, although CHC concentrations were high, the consistent ratio of the two main components of the plume (tetrachloroethene and trichloroethene) provided evidence of movement in the aqueous phase rather than in dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL).